Coronavirus (2021) thread

[RobMCFC]

Apologies if this has already been answered. I know we were warned that 1st vaccinations would be low throughout April, but here we are a third of the way through May and the daily number of 1st jabs is still in the 100-120K range.

Are we expecting a significant increase soon? The journalists at press conference seem to be obsessed with important details like who the PM will hug and how much he's spent on redecorating his flat.

Everybody done by the end of July looks impossible unless there's a significant increase in 1st jabs soon.

 

[Scottyboi]

I think the Government need to be very careful now. Not just in terms of what happens next but in how what happens is reported. There's obviously been increases in attacks on Chinese people after Covid was referred to as the 'China virus'. It doesn't take a huge jump in imagination to work out what will happen next if lockdown is extended because of the 'Indian variant' does it?

lol

 

[Healdplace]

Wirral and Barrow in Furness are the two lowest North West areas and the only ones in the bottom 50 of the 315 English boroughs. Both with a weekly pop score under 10.

Bury at 22 is the best in GM - most areas of which are in the top half and nearly all in the top 50. Liverpool and St Helens way down the list too. GM is clearly a big factor in driving the NW numbers in the way Merseyside is not.

Bolton is 2nd in the 5 day old list behind Erewash (East Midlands is the only other area doing badly like the NW at the moment - as in rising not falling).

But Bolton's Pop Score has risen significantly in those 5 days so will almost certainly really be top in England now as this old data has it at 120 and last night it sat on 169.

 

[True_Blue69]

The hospital numbers are still falling but have noticeably slowed in the last couple of weeks as the nightly reports I post show. Inevitable at very small numbers just because of statistics. Hard to know how much is just numbers and how much a real slowing down.

Over the past 4 weekends (Sat/Sun/Mon data) in England the following occurred:

Wk and Falls of Patients and Ventilators / Totals at end point

Wk 1 112 patients / 7 Ventilators / 1732 & 291

Wk 2 85 patients / 13 Ventilators / 1393 & 208

Wk 3 65 patients / 2 Ventilators / 1096 & 168

Wk 4 29 patients / 10 Ventilators / 944 & 135

Isn’t it feasible that some of these people are actually catching it in hospital? if there are people in hospitals with it then you will be at a greater risk than amongst the general public I would imagine. MRSA for example, if you had the stats on how many people in hospital had this it wouldn’t give an accurate reflection about what is going on outside of hospitals.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Depends what the significant hospitalisation and death numbers you are referring to are? Isn't the risk of hospitalisation for under thirties something like 0.01 % and deaths significantly lower still? I could very well be wrong on those stats?

Fatality vs age from https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1

I would guess the low proportion of unvaccinated older people - and thoe who it isn't effective in - would have the highest impact on fatality in a 4th wave.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The hospital numbers are still falling but have noticeably slowed in the last couple of weeks as the nightly reports I post show. Inevitable at very small numbers just because of statistics. Hard to know how much is just numbers and how much a real slowing down.

Over the past 4 weekends (Sat/Sun/Mon data) in England the following occurred:

Wk and Falls of Patients and Ventilators / Totals at end point

Wk 1 112 patients / 7 Ventilators / 1732 & 291

Wk 2 85 patients / 13 Ventilators / 1393 & 208

Wk 3 65 patients / 2 Ventilators / 1096 & 168

Wk 4 29 patients / 10 Ventilators / 944 & 135

This guy (maths prof) does updates on various stats - and is well worth following. Here's England hospitalisation on a log scale. A straight line = constant exponential decay.

As numbers get small you expect to see random fluctuations more, so the flattening at the end is necessarily significant, yet.

https://twitter.com/BristOliver

 

[Cityfan]

Edit - unsure what impact this has on AZ vaccine efficacy against one of the Indian variants which is circulating in the UK. If its on par with the SA does this make it less effective? The 'live virus' bit has thrown me, as I had initially assumed that's what the AZ vaccine was but perhaps not, @roubaixtuesday ?4vaccinated with AZ as t

This isn't the dominant indian variant in the UK, as yet, but it is here too.

The live virus refers to the variant that they are testing which is 'live' and seeing if the serum of the vaccinated or previously affected people can stop it infecting cells in culture.
We cannot know what it means for people vaccinated with AZ as it was not tested for.

 

[Healdplace]

Nicola Sturgeon gave a briefing on new restriction easing this lunchtime and mentioned a new variant of concern in Scotland under study. Small numbers found in a cluster in the Highlands.

She was unable to supply the daily numbers as an 'IT glitch' has delayed them today.

 

[Healdplace]

Isn’t it feasible that some of these people are actually catching it in hospital? if there are people in hospitals with it then you will be at a greater risk than amongst the general public I would imagine. MRSA for example, if you had the stats on how many people in hospital had this it wouldn’t give an accurate reflection about what is going on outside of hospitals.

A few people have always caught it in hospital that is true but the vaccination programme is reducing transmission too according to the data so at 1000 versus near on 40,000 people in hospital with Covid now than in January and many many times more people vaccinated than there were in January as of now - including pretty much all the staff interacting with patients - I would think this problem is not really a serious factor now.

 

[Mid Wales blue]

Wales data

STILL DOING REALLY WELL HERE

1 death - was 1 last week

30 cases - was 65 last week

0.6% positivity - was 1.0% last week

This is the lowest daily case number from Wales in nearly 9 months.

Remember they have vaccinated the highest percentage of their population and their numbers are easily the best of the four nations. Unlikely to be a coincidence.

It also helps that 90% of cases in wales, happened along the M4 corridor, spreading through the heavily populated valleys. Also in the north along the A55, M53, A5 areas again heavily populated areas.
Most of the population in these regions had gained immunity, before the role out of vacation jabs.