Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

I think a 3rd wave is fully expected to be honest. there is no way it couldn't happen with easing of lockdowns. I cant see it being a fraction of the size of the 2nd wave though.

I think there is genuinely such huge uncertainty in terms of vaccine effectiveness, people's behaviour, seasonal effects, transmissibility differences with new variants that it's possible to argue either that it's a total non-issue and we should open up now, or that it's a huge risk and we should stop next week's relaxation.

Indeed, you see both viewpoints advocated here.

If you look at the modelling, scenarios from both almost no wave, to a wave bigger than the 2nd wave Jan peak have the potential to come about.

Personally, my view is that because it's so uncertain our main focus should be to react rapidly to changing data on the ground.

For instance, once the huge outbreak in India became apparent we should have rapidly got them on the red list and thereby delayed variant seeding.

Now, if the local outbreaks we see start to join up into something more systemic, we need to react to that, but equally monitor how severe it is in terms of hospitalisations, deaths.

All just personal opinions.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Hasn’t happened in Israel.

Israel actually had more restrictions at our current level of vaccination.

 

[grunge]

I think there is genuinely such huge uncertainty in terms of vaccine effectiveness, people's behaviour, seasonal effects, transmissibility differences with new variants that it's possible to argue either that it's a total non-issue and we should open up now, or that it's a huge risk and we should stop next week's relaxation.

Indeed, you see both viewpoints advocated here.

If you look at the modelling, scenarios from both almost no wave, to a wave bigger than the 2nd wave Jan peak have the potential to come about.

Personally, my view is that because it's so uncertain our main focus should be to react rapidly to changing data on the ground.

For instance, once the huge outbreak in India became apparent we should have rapidly got them on the red list and thereby delayed variant seeding.

Now, if the local outbreaks we see start to join up into something more systemic, we need to react to that, but equally monitor how severe it is in terms of hospitalisations, deaths.

All just personal opinions.

Sorry my post should say "I can see it being a fraction of the 2nd wave". accidentally added the t to make it cant!.

I think cases will rise, but I dont think as bad as 2nd wave. I think hospitalisations and deaths will rise but by a much smaller fraction.

baring mutations etc.

I agree though we need to not be complacent. Im fully expecting Manchester to be in a regional lockdown soon or at least have the move for the 17th delayed.

 

[ancoats]

Why? Opening schools didn’t affect cases. Outdoor mixing didn’t affect cases. Opening outdoor hospitality and non essential retail didn’t affect cases. Now we have indoor hospitality opening and many tens of millions more vaccinated including virtually all over 50’s and all vulnerable. Why the statement deaths could be up in triple numbers again? Hasn’t happened in Israel.

its what happens when you have 2 to 3 weeks of mixing and i have been around town and manchester and people are not doing the mask and spaces and large groups of mixing ? just walk around ancoats and new islington and you will see 1000s of people not giving a fuck about covid-19

i think people have got the wrong idea that the vaccines will kill the virus and everything is ok ? also this new indian covid-19 is bad and can live longer in the summer and sun and spread fast

 

[wolfie1988]

2657 cases and 11 deaths.

189 of the cases come from Bolton

 

[splinter]

21st of June won't happen

 

[grunge]

Why? Opening schools didn’t affect cases. Outdoor mixing didn’t affect cases. Opening outdoor hospitality and non essential retail didn’t affect cases. Now we have indoor hospitality opening and many tens of millions more vaccinated including virtually all over 50’s and all vulnerable. Why the statement deaths could be up in triple numbers again? Hasn’t happened in Israel.

The exact same thing was said last year when we started to unlock.

the main thing will be if we can keep the hospital numbers down. if this runs rife through the un vaccinated ages then we're still at risk of overrunning the NHS.

 

[Tonster]

Israel actually had more restrictions at our current level of vaccination.

Maybe but not by much. What I can’t understand is the view that we will inevitably be heading to triple digit deaths shortly. Really though, who will be dying in those sorts of numbers given our vaccine roll out status. Im not suggesting a free for all, but as it stands by June 21st another 8/10 million should have had the 1st jab. Especially as it cuts transmission too

 

[Tonster]

The exact same thing was said last year when we started to unlock.

the main thing will be if we can keep the hospital numbers down. if this runs rife through the un vaccinated ages then we're still at risk of overrunning the NHS.

And last year nobody was vaccinated

 

[grunge]

And last year nobody was vaccinated

Last year 50% of all Hospital cases were under 50 too. most of whom are still not vaccinated.

I dont personally think we're in for triple figure deaths from it unless there is a shit in immunity but we still need to be careful. Especially with this Indian variant.