Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Yes that worries me too.

What I do is not difficult just time consuming and I have the time and enough understanding of science acquired in the job I had for years to follow data.

But I am not remotely an expert and I really have to believe that someone is doing similar briefings to those who make the decisions both locally and nationally. And I am sure that they must do as it is too important to ignore.

I can only presume they understand things I do not and my guesses about why things that look obvious are not done have reasons I am not qualified to judge and they are.

Because it looks wrong to me does not mean it is wrong.
I think they put too much reliance on the 7 day averages early on, because of all the daily peaks and troughs (it makes sense to smooth the curves), and it's just become "habit" to follow that data, fine when things are stable, but terrible if there is a major spike taking place, they must be seriously worried by the 50k+ days now, after effectively locking down 60% of the population.

I think the key is keeping schools open in the areas of rapid spread, whilst most others were stuck at home, so it's spread in kids through their mixing, and then been taken home to spread there.

Like you I use a lot of data in life, and all your analysis has seemed sound to me, I've not been following it as closely, but I have followed my own area, and the rapid increase was in the 2 weeks before we went from tier 2 to 4 in three days, as my chart above suggests, it might have now levelled out, but it's at a very high level.
 
I've been following our (LA) daily numbers since we went into tier 4. (zero yesterday)

The rise seems to have at least levelled off, the data on 19th, 20th, and 21st looks a bit weird like there was missing data added on on the 21st, the sudden drop is Christmas day, so I doubt many were tested that day.


View attachment 7434

Same with my borough - the last 8 days have been approx 340/350 twice, in the 400s three times, 120 on 25th, 170 on 30th, 44 yesterday, 422 today.

No clear conclusion possible, although it looks to have flattened.
 
No clear conclusion possible, although it looks to have flattened.
Yeah, it would be nice to see it start going down, but the weekends and holidays are not helping to either show reliable data, or prevent people getting together against the rules.

It will be midweek next week before we know if this tier 4 is doing anything really.
 

just get on with it, do a proper lockdown, shut all the schools crank up everything and everyone and vaccinate as much as we can. Stop pissing about with bits bobs tiers and fucking delaying the inevitable
 

just get on with it, do a proper lockdown, shut all the schools crank up everything and everyone and vaccinate as much as we can. Stop pissing about with bits bobs tiers and fucking delaying the inevitable
A proper lockdown was needed when sage told them too, if not sept then a couple of weeks ago . It was disgusting in my town yesterday esp in tesco , proper lost my rag
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.