Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Scotland data:

0 deaths - was 0 last week

292 cases - was 200 last week

2.0% positivity - was 1.5% last week


Case numbers and positivity still rising.

All we get now at weekends.

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland data:

NB: THIS IS FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS NOT ONE DUE TO A DATA ISSUE YESTERDAY

0 deaths - was 0 (last Sat & Sun combined).

109 cases - last week was 179 cases (Sat & Sun combined)

 

[Healdplace]

With no England hospital death data being posted this weekend until all three days tomorrow the total so far from the other three nations today is 1.

Though there were 7 deaths yesterday recorded for England on Gov UK last night so there will be a number today I imagine.

But not clear whether any or all or none of those 7 yesterday were from the non published England hospital numbers. Or these were just out of hospital numbers.

 

[Healdplace]

Cases today from the three nations without England as yet are today :- 455 .

But probably around 50 or so of those are actually from yesterday in N Ireland. As its number (109) today covered 48 hours due to a data glitch yesterday.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

For anyone interested, a very long but interesting thread of possible projections from someone who's modelled outcomes based on a variety of factors (rate of increase of transmission 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%?...seasonality factors, vaccine programme with slight loss of efficacy, changing vaccine strategy, keeping/removing some controls etc).

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

My hope is that the opening up tomorrow may not change things as much as people think. I think those who want to mix and get out and about, have already been doing so, and those that don’t aren’t going to rush out tomorrow. I’ve been inside my daughters house and my fathers house, the first providing a childcare bubble and the second visiting a vulnerable adult. That will stay the same for quite a while. And is anyone really going hug someone tomorrow just cos Boris says it’s ok?

I'll be seeing my parents for the first time this year on Boris's say so this week - there may be more idiots like me doing similar.

 

[unicorn]

My mum is almost 83 and my dad almost 90. Both double jabbed and will go anywhere. Myself double jabbed and my sister and her husband have had one jab. We all went for four days in a lodge in Wales. Out every day and each time had a drink outside a pub. All being well we are away in six weeks and they have booked a week in Almunaca in November. As soon as things open I am off to Tenerife for six weeks at least. Life is for living and comes with no guarantees. Once elderly that is definitely the case.

My thoughts entirely, I'm off walking Hadrian's Wall tomorrow now accommodation is back open. Never waste a day.

 

[Healdplace]

Zoe App

Predicted Cases 2403 - down 201.

North West FALLS out of the mid pink top level leaving just Yorkshire and Scotland still there.

Predicted symptomatic cases 32, 647 (down 344)

Second day running both have fallen.



NORTH WEST NUMBERS



(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)


OLDHAM 68 / 290 v 543 / 2321 - a gigantic drop takes it out of the risk areas

BOLTON 215 / 758 v 516 / 1822 - Down also so much it is out of the risk area.


NOWHERE IN GM NOW IN ANY WATCH ZONE (OVER 1000 estimated cases per million.) ON ZOE



Others GM Areas:-



BURY 43 / 228 v 70 / 372 -good fall also

MANCHESTER 86 / 157 v 321 / 589 - yet another good fall

ROCHDALE 18 / 81 v 40 / 182 - like all of the above well down

SALFORD 21 / 82 v 47 / 188 - another big fall here.

STOCKPORT 53 / 183 v 176 / 609 - dropped hugely again in 24 hours

TAMESIDE 19 / 87 v 49 / 217 v 38 - same as above

TRAFFORD 84 / 358 v 196 / 837 - though now the highest in GM still well down on yesterday and under1000

WIGAN 35 / 108 v 169 / 521 - another borough going down like an elevator


Chorley is the only hot spot in NW in the watch zone (over 1000) but having dropped too by a lot to just 128 / 1107 v 465 / 4011

Fylde (Blackpool) is well down on 62 / 782 v 135 / 1719 and out of the pink zone




High Peak (Glossop/Whaley Bridge/Buxton) is down only a little on 204 / 2230 v 223 / 2436

High Peak is now far and away the worst on Zoe in the North West.

Very odd.

But these numbers do seem to yo yo on Zoe an awful lot day to day.

 

[unicorn]

My hope is that the opening up tomorrow may not change things as much as people think. I think those who want to mix and get out and about, have already been doing so, and those that don’t aren’t going to rush out tomorrow. I’ve been inside my daughters house and my fathers house, the first providing a childcare bubble and the second visiting a vulnerable adult. That will stay the same for quite a while. And is anyone really going hug someone tomorrow just cos Boris says it’s ok?

Agree, don't think re-opening pubs and restaurants will be the catalyst for a spike some think, as vaccinations and low levels reduce infection risk.

I think that allowing some freedom 5 weeks ago will prove a wise move, as folk like me who needed the social boost of a pub, even outside, have had it, and so there won't be a mad rush into pubs (not that there was last July either).

Mrs Unicorn and I love sitting in pubs but we'll probably avoid any that look too cramped or poorly ventilated as we travel.

 

[Healdplace]

REAL data

4 deaths ( 3 from England added to the 1 from Wales)

1926 cases - was 1770 last week and 1671 week before

(Recall that the N Ireland data today is 2 days as it was not last week so around 50 come from there and Scotland is also up by nearly 100 wk to wk)).



England only 1471 - was 1418 last wk - and 1377 wk before