Coronavirus (2021) thread

[paulchapo]

My thoughts entirely, I'm off walking Hadrian's Wall tomorrow now accommodation is back open. Never waste a day.

Well done! Also life goes very fast and aside from the odd bit of freedom we've had fourteen months taken off us. People might say oh well you're alive, you could watch TV, eat drink etcetera, well so could prisoners. We can't live our lives forever looking at stats, worrying about new variants ( which we were told wouldn't impact too much if vaccinated) and hiding indoors. On the subject of variants the Kent and Brazilian one didn't kill us all did it? With so many now vaccinated get the bloody country open. Those scared to death can stay indoors, give people the choice.

 

[Healdplace]

Unfortunately - whatever Zoe says - North West actually is UP today and by some distance now is the most infected and, sadly, Bolton back well up too. By 66 to 145. Second worst yet in this run of numbers. And almost double yesterday.

 

[Healdplace]

Sadly GM is up by 52 on the day (NW up just 37) - Bolton more than all of BOTH these on its own - by 66 to 145.

And week to week GM is up by 65 (NW is up 89 week to week so GM quite a lot of it) - Bolton 54 of that week to week rise on its own.

Wigan up 10 week to week is the other main GM culprit today (though at 17 in total not catastrophic versus Bolton's 145) - so these two between them cover a lot of the wk to wk rise.

Manchester still low on 30 and everyone else just up or down by small numbers wk to wk.

Bury still a bit up also and only Oldham, Salford & Tameside (best on just 3) are in single figures.

But no obvious hints that anywhere but Bolton in GM is in trouble or starting to emulate its sudden rise 2 weeks ago thankfully.

 

[Summerbuzz]

Use of fear to control behaviour in Covid crisis was ‘totalitarian’, admit scientists

Members of Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviour express regret about ‘unethical’ methods

www.telegraph.co.uk

SAGE were told and did in fact repeatedly put forward suggestions for positively rewarding adherence to measures such as isolation. But it was nearly all dismissed, and what positive measures we ended up with were frankly rubbish.

Anyway, I now await the political system to swing into full effect, and find ways of signalling to us that the time is right to hound and belittle people unfortunately suffering unduly from fear, as well as pouring scorn on any normal people who stay at home for any reason.

If nothing else, I'm beginning to accept that we were already trapped in this cycle of blunt and harmful over-correction after blunt and harmful over-correction from the start.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Zoe App

Predicted Cases 2403 - down 201.

North West FALLS out of the mid pink top level leaving just Yorkshire and Scotland still there.

Predicted symptomatic cases 32, 647 (down 344)

Second day running both have fallen.



NORTH WEST NUMBERS



(Predicted active cases / Estimated cases per million population locally / Both V yesterday)


OLDHAM 68 / 290 v 543 / 2321 - a gigantic drop takes it out of the risk areas

BOLTON 215 / 758 v 516 / 1822 - Down also so much it is out of the risk area.


NOWHERE IN GM NOW IN ANY WATCH ZONE (OVER 1000 estimated cases per million.) ON ZOE



Others GM Areas:-



BURY 43 / 228 v 70 / 372 -good fall also

MANCHESTER 86 / 157 v 321 / 589 - yet another good fall

ROCHDALE 18 / 81 v 40 / 182 - like all of the above well down

SALFORD 21 / 82 v 47 / 188 - another big fall here.

STOCKPORT 53 / 183 v 176 / 609 - dropped hugely again in 24 hours

TAMESIDE 19 / 87 v 49 / 217 v 38 - same as above

TRAFFORD 84 / 358 v 196 / 837 - though now the highest in GM still well down on yesterday and under1000

WIGAN 35 / 108 v 169 / 521 - another borough going down like an elevator


Chorley is the only hot spot in NW in the watch zone (over 1000) but having dropped too by a lot to just 128 / 1107 v 465 / 4011

Fylde (Blackpool) is well down on 62 / 782 v 135 / 1719 and out of the pink zone




High Peak (Glossop/Whaley Bridge/Buxton) is down only a little on 204 / 2230 v 223 / 2436

High Peak is now far and away the worst on Zoe in the North West.

Very odd.

But these numbers do seem to yo yo on Zoe an awful lot day to day.

hi

I thought the pop score was based on number of people per 100k.

why is it now a million?

 

[Healdplace]

hi

I thought the pop score was based on number of people per 100k.

why is it now a million?

I do not know why Zoe do it this way. They have tinkered a lot with their data to try to get it to work right as it is all based in guesstimates from numbers reported not actual cases as the Gov. uk data.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

 

[ayrshire_blue]

For anyone interested, a very long but interesting thread of possible projections from someone who's modelled outcomes based on a variety of factors (rate of increase of transmission 20%, 40%, 60%, 80%?...seasonality factors, vaccine programme with slight loss of efficacy, changing vaccine strategy, keeping/removing some controls etc).

And now JB Murdoch from the Financial Times has picked up on the thread and made comments.

I really do recommend reading the full thing, a 10 minute read but easy enough to follow and see how this could play out. Interesting to see JBM's take on it too.

 

[Healdplace]

Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday and the v number is versus 7 days ago.



SOUTH

East down UP 1 to 162 v 104

London down 35 to 217 v 238 - still falling in London

South East down 39 to 124 v 182

South West UP 17 to 66 v 63 - best in England again today







MIDLANDS

East down 13 to 146 v 150 - still falling

West down 26 to 96 v 109 - first sub 100 total here in months



NORTH

North East up 21 to 104 v 83


Yorkshire down 25 to 243 v 244 (Down well behind NW now and again down wk to wk)




NORTH WEST UP 37 to 381 v 292. - Still highest region and increased the gap and well up on last week again.


GREATER MANCHESTER

UP 52 day to day to 251 - Over the NW rise of 37 - Bolton up 66 on its own the reason.

Up 67 week to week. Most of the NW rise of 89 over the week.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Sadly GM is up by 52 on the day (NW up just 37) - Bolton more than all of BOTH these on its own - by 66 to 145.

And week to week GM is up by 65 (NW is up 89 week to week so GM quite a lot of it) - Bolton 54 of that week to week rise on its own.

Wigan up 10 week to week is the other main GM culprit today (though at 17 in total not catastrophic versus Bolton's 145) - so these two between them cover a lot of the wk to wk rise.

Manchester still low on 30 and everyone else just up or down by small numbers wk to wk.

Bury still a bit up also and only Oldham, Salford & Tameside (best on just 3) are in single figures.

But no obvious hints that anywhere but Bolton in GM is in trouble or starting to emulate its sudden rise 2 weeks ago thankfully.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but shouldn’t we expect Bolton figures to be relatively high due to surge testing? Door to door is bound to pick up a number of asymptomatic that ordinarily wouldn’t have had a test so don’t think we need to panic, as yet.