Coronavirus (2021) thread

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7 All settings deaths

2412 cases

BUT _ GOOD OLD GOV UK SAY THIS TODAY!

Revision to historical case data in England. The introduction of a new system disrupted the removal of cases where a positive rapid lateral flow test (LFD) was followed by all negative laboratory (PCR) tests taken within 3 days. Therefore 4,776 additional cases have been removed today. Regions and local authorities do not show the actual number of new cases reported. UK and England numbers of newly reported cases have been adjusted and correctly reflect new cases reported.

TRANSLATION????

BUT I ASSUME THIS MEANS WE WILL HAVE NO IDEA NOW WHO HAS WHAT TODAY.
 
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ayrshire_blue said:
Surely it must be time to reconsider the pause in rollout of AZ to under 40s? Or, at the very least amend the process so that people are actually given that as the first option?

It seems things have stalled just at the wrong time, be interesting to know how much, if any, of an AZ stockpile we have.
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hmmm i dunno, i'm sure someone will pick me up on this but when you get down to mid 30s, the IFR gets very small and the increased morbidity ratio for some venous and cerebral clotting doubles in AZ vaccinations, and gets higher as you go down to below 44 year olds (Danish/Norwegian cohort study). The chances of these events is still low across many jabs, but then you are comparing to an IFR that is potentially less than 0.005%. If there is another jab available, you might as well use it. I dont know, i'm not good at the medical side.
 
I had a nightmare last night about this. A reflection of how I'm struggling like hell right now. But I also realised how strange my fears were at root. We're still dealing with the unknown, and in the world of the mind, that means we are working with assumptions we have as individuals, that we can't really explain, and don't really see. For me, I caught that my mind was comparing it all with Chernobyl. And it's not like Chernoby, is it. But I could see that was the only thing my mind could come up to serve of as a comparison.

Stay positive. It's a mess, I know I feel that way.

But the best thing you can do for you, your health, and everyone else, is to stay positive.

We are prone to feel doomed by the shadows of things we don't yet understand, looming against the background of uncertainty. And this month has been pretty gloomy, down to the colour of the skies. The vaccine situation puts us in a great place, compared to how things might have been. And whatever we get from this summer will be phenomenal. I can't wait.

Scientists are learning about the virus all the time. And we are learning as people and societies how we can and can't cope. As for people not following the rules, remember that there is a reason for that. Ignoring things protects you from fear. It's inevitable some people will react in that way, and it's inevitable that others will feel aggrieved about it. But it's just inevitable. It's part of the deal with humans. We also adapt and overcome, and support each other with our positivity (the same thing people are protecting in them by ignoring warnings). Try to remember that. Things are poised to get a lot better. Not perfect, not yet by any measure. But a lot better.
 
Once the vast majority of us are vaccinated I truly believe things will be OK. Vaccine take up is amazingly good over the majority of the country. Sadly in some very localised parts of the country the take up is what 20-30% lower. Lets not beat around the bush, until we are all vaccinated, its these selfish foolish people who are refusing the vaccine and not following the rules that are putting everything at risk for the rest of us.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
perhaps you prefer living with these restrictions. Im pretty sure 99% of people dont and i am pretty sure the majority of those want firm action taken against those that dont give a dam. Im also pretty sure people with your views are in the minority on this one.
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I'm impressed you feel you know what my views are!

For what it's worth, I'm probably the most pro-vaccine person on here and think they're a miracle of science. I've spent lots of hours trawling for pop up jab clinics to post on the covid vaccine threads on here to give people a heads up so believe me I am well aware that vaccines are the only way out of this mess.

However, it is possible to realise we have an issue without pining for some totalitarian society. Covid is not the be all and end all and there is a bigger picture that needs remembering. We will be living with the fall out from this crisis for a long time, be that politically or other public / health issues (depression, reduced life expectancy etc). I don't and never will believe that the state can declare what it injects into an individual's body and I don't care if someone off the internet doesn't agree. It doesn't make me a lefty namby pamby (I'm not) nor should it be viewed as a controversial view. I'm sure you recall the German state decided they'd inject all sorts of things into children as health experiments back in the early 1900s....was that ok by you as it was declared 'for the greater good'?

As far as the rules go....I'm afraid you're living on cloud cuckoo land if you don't realise that most people stopped paying attention to them ages ago. House parties have been in full swing for months and social distancing is getting more distant. Just take a walk along market street if you don't believe me. However, this is all entirely predictable because it is one of the ways a pandemic ends - via a societal ending where the population decides it has had enough of living in fear and just starts getting on with life. We are lucky that science is so great that there are vaccines which has reduced this fear for many of those that were genuinely scared down to such a low level that they feel they can now get on with their lives. For the huge swathes of society that were never scared in the first place but did their bit by respecting lockdown etc and taking their jabs when offered, they too are now deciding to get on with life. You can bitch and moan all you like but it will just raise your blood pressure for no gain.

The government must follow a strategy of accepting that life must go on and facilitate that rather than allow those that would focus SOLEY on the epidimeological factors and keep everything locked down until the risk has gone. NEWSFLASH - the risk will never go and there will ALWAYS be variants that *could* be more transmissible and *may* avoid vaccines forevermore. Living with restrictions forever, banning travel forever and destroying the economy wouldn't leave a particularly good quality of life left for the majority would it?
 
As the above Gov UK message suggests every region has a MINUS number today rendering data not much use.

What I can say though is the NW has the least benefit from this change.

Only minus 102

The two midlands areas are Minus 675 between them. And the South East Minus 662 in its own.

No idea what that means other than numbers today are meaningless. And the NW is either so high it benefits the least from the reduction or its data was the most accurate.

Though not a huge difference with the other big regions. Seems mostly the smaller ones that benefit.

Yorkshire is minus 159 and London minus 199.

I would guess that tells us something about todays actual number order - NW the most, Yorkshire second most and London third. But this is really guessing.
 
frothy said:
My daughter is 43 and lives in Glasgow and still hasn't been called for her first Jab, she lives in Glasgow which was kept in level 3 because of the Indian variant it doesn't make sense
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Can't she just go onto the NHS website and book one? You don't need to wait for your doctor to write to you. Unless that's different in Scotland? (crazy if so..!)
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
Can't she just go onto the NHS website and book one? You don't need to wait for your doctor to write to you. Unless that's different in Scotland? (crazy if so..!)
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I thought the same but it seems from this link that it is invite only. Good old Sturgeon making sure they have to been seen to be doing it differently to England eh

www.nhsinform.scot

How you will get the vaccine

When and where you will attend for your first and second vaccinations and how you will be notified of your appointments
www.nhsinform.scot www.nhsinform.scot
 


Another reminder to not panic. I've been incredibly guilty of fearing the worst, but stepping back from all the noise really helps. Things are good at the moment. They genuinely are. There will always be the odd bump in the road here and there, but I think we'll be fine and the vaccines will do their job.
 
twosips said:


Another reminder to not panic. I've been incredibly guilty of fearing the worst, but stepping back from all the noise really helps. Things are good at the moment. They genuinely are. There will always be the odd bump in the road here and there, but I think we'll be fine and the vaccines will do their job.
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can you let this SAGE member know

Dr Zubaida Haque, a member of independent SAGE, has told Sky News the Indian variant could push hospitalisations back to January levels if the prime minister doesn't slow down the lifting of lockdown.

Dr Haque said it was "astonishing" that the prime minister has gone ahead with the third stage of the roadmap "given that the government didn't pass all four tests for easing their roadmap".

She added: "Now, the prime minister has a decision to make here. He's promised that he wouldn't be following dates and he would be following data.

"If he waits another month before he acts, if he waits another month before he stops the roadmap, that will devastate this country in terms of hospitals.

"Cases of the so-called Indian variant has been doubling every week in the last six weeks and have tripled last week.

"It is an extremely aggressive variant and already SAGE has told them that if we carry on the way we are at the moment, with all the relaxed restrictions, particularly the indoor mixing, we are looking at hospitalisations at the same level as the January surges. Without a doubt."
 
BlueHammer85 said:
can you let this SAGE member know

Dr Zubaida Haque, a member of independent SAGE, has told Sky News the Indian variant could push hospitalisations back to January levels if the prime minister doesn't slow down the lifting of lockdown.

Dr Haque said it was "astonishing" that the prime minister has gone ahead with the third stage of the roadmap "given that the government didn't pass all four tests for easing their roadmap".

She added: "Now, the prime minister has a decision to make here. He's promised that he wouldn't be following dates and he would be following data.

"If he waits another month before he acts, if he waits another month before he stops the roadmap, that will devastate this country in terms of hospitals.

"Cases of the so-called Indian variant has been doubling every week in the last six weeks and have tripled last week.

"It is an extremely aggressive variant and already SAGE has told them that if we carry on the way we are at the moment, with all the relaxed restrictions, particularly the indoor mixing, we are looking at hospitalisations at the same level as the January surges. Without a doubt."
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That's not SAGE btw. It's independent SAGE, whose default position seems to be whatever the opposite of the government's is. Their whole existence relies on shouting louder than others.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
Can't she just go onto the NHS website and book one? You don't need to wait for your doctor to write to you. Unless that's different in Scotland? (crazy if so..!)
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Her husband who is 45 had his a couple of weeks ago both at the same Surgery he got the text to make a appointment, but it seems to have really slowed down her friends and work colleagues about the same age are still waiting to hear
 
BlueHammer85 said:
can you let this SAGE member know

Dr Zubaida Haque, a member of independent SAGE, has told Sky News the Indian variant could push hospitalisations back to January levels if the prime minister doesn't slow down the lifting of lockdown.

Dr Haque said it was "astonishing" that the prime minister has gone ahead with the third stage of the roadmap "given that the government didn't pass all four tests for easing their roadmap".

She added: "Now, the prime minister has a decision to make here. He's promised that he wouldn't be following dates and he would be following data.

"If he waits another month before he acts, if he waits another month before he stops the roadmap, that will devastate this country in terms of hospitals.

"Cases of the so-called Indian variant has been doubling every week in the last six weeks and have tripled last week.

"It is an extremely aggressive variant and already SAGE has told them that if we carry on the way we are at the moment, with all the relaxed restrictions, particularly the indoor mixing, we are looking at hospitalisations at the same level as the January surges. Without a doubt."
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i think you need to be totally clear that is the view of that member of Independent SAGE (not SAGE).

that last bit is a very strong statement isn't it - "without a doubt" - although she seems to credit that certainty to SAGE, i'm not sure i've read that

edit: sorry, just seen someone else mention this
 
shemnel said:
hmmm i dunno, i'm sure someone will pick me up on this but when you get down to mid 30s, the IFR gets very small and the increased morbidity ratio for some venous and cerebral clotting doubles in AZ vaccinations, and gets higher as you go down to below 44 year olds (Danish/Norwegian cohort study). The chances of these events is still low across many jabs, but then you are comparing to an IFR that is potentially less than 0.005%. If there is another jab available, you might as well use it. I dont know, i'm not good at the medical side.
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I think the main concern though is now perhaps reflected in your last point, if there is another jab available. First doses have reached a quite low stall, for example in Scotland today there were less than 10,000. Seeing many reports of low deliveries of Pfizer and Moderna, but a possible stockpile of AZ doing nothing. If supply is too slow for Pfizer and Moderna wouldn't it be more beneficial to keep vaccinating at pace using AZ?

Again it's a matter of weighing up risk/benefit, but that's now changed since the pause due to the new variant, time to reassess perhaps?
 
The GM data today is pretty positive from whatever sense you can make out of all these minus numbers.

As in impact today - discounting Bolton as that was barely impacted by what would have been its share of cases deleted - It is on 138 anyway - down by 15 from yesterday but was likely pretty similar to that number with deletions that will have to be taken into account whatever they were.

Bolton was not the only borough to have a positive number today.

Tameside did too! It had 1 case added. In other words it had more cases today than the cases taken away.

The total of minus numbers for GM was 46 - which out of the - 102 for the region is about what you would expect.

For the record - not that it tells us much really - here are the minus numbers for today!

BURY - MINUS 3

MANCHESTER - MINUS 7

OLDHAM - MINUS 3

ROCHDALE - MINUS 5

SALFORD - MINUS 9

STOCKPORT - MINUS 12

TRAFFORD - MINUS 2

WIGAN - MINUS 5


Stockport and Salford did 'well' with the most minuses - though whether that is good, bad or indifferent your guess is as good as mine. Though I suppose it is likely the higher the minus the lower the cases were today but that is pure speculation.
 
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