Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Regional Cases Today



Cases show up or down on yesterday^ and the v number is versus 7 days ago.

* Two days ago because of the MINUS numbers everywhere yesterday. Wk to wk as usual

NB: - There were still 561 cases removed today across the regions so some or all of these numbers will be reduced by a little from what they actually were today. Most appear to be in the south and midlands. NW was impacted too but based on the numbers today I think minimally.

May well be a few more deducted for next few days also we are warned.



SOUTH

East down 8 to 114 v 157

London UP 50 to 262 v 277

South East down 56 to 108 v 129

South West down 35 to 54 v 79







MIDLANDS

East down 85 to 68 v 174

West down 33 to 117 v 213




NORTH

North East UP 2 to 74 v 76


Yorkshire UP 82 to 321 v 342 (Down wk to wk and still behind NW by over 100)




NORTH WEST UP 27 to 459 v 400. -Highest region


GREATER MANCHESTER

UP 38 v two days ago at 326 - week to week up 79. Over both the day to day and week to week NW rise.
 


Possible projections based on Van Taam's 20-30% more transmissible comment. Reminder that this is a possible projection only and is factor dependant.
 
Greater Manchester Cases


326 cases today - up 38 on two days ago. From 459 North West cases. GM 71% of NW cases. Highest in a while.


Day to day v two days ago not yesterday because of the minus numbers.

Bolton - went up again by 30 - to 183 - only 6 below highest yet up 59 on last week. Pop score rise today was 64.


Manchester also up 10 to 49. Up 13 on last week.

Trafford still struggling down 1 at 20 - which is up 12 wk to wk.

Wigan is up 4 on 17 - which is down 1 wk to wk.

Rochdale up 1 on 14 - which is up 4 week to week.

Bury down 2 on 13 which is up 8 wk to wk. Bury still not doing well.

Oldham up by 4 to 11 - which is up 3 wk to wk.



So three boroughs again in single numbers:



Salford down by 9 to 8 which is down 5 on last week.

Stockport stays on 8 which is down 11 on last week.

And top again:-


Tameside is up 1 on just 3 which is down 4 wk to wk. Tameside over last few days has been on quite a run - 5 - 3 - 2 - 1 - 3 - lowest sequence in GM since last Summer.
 
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ayrshire_blue said:


Possible projections based on Van Taam's 20-30% more transmissible comment. Reminder that this is a possible projection only and is factor dependant.
Click to expand...

Interesting.

At some point don't we have to accept that covid risk/death falls in step with flu/risk death? I mean flu was suppressed to nearly nought this winter, which might account for 8 to 20k deaths, or 100 a day over a six month season (not many even pay it any mind!). I have no idea what covid will do next winter but I suspect it will be kicking about doing its thing.

I don't advocate letting rip but I do want to see maximum vaccine uptake then sensible conversation and acceptance that we have a new risk factor in town, with booster if and when necessary. Life must return, and I'm predisposed to life without as many extra controls as possible. Next 6 weeks are major.
 
Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-


Bolton top 1000 weekly cases - more than 4 times Manchester and at least 11 times all the other boroughs looking scary but the gap is quite encouraging as it is not spreading elsewhere.

Tameside have had a great run and now pip Oldham to lowest cases by 1.

Stockport had a good few days and are closing in on those two,

Though everyone will be impacted by the minus numbers in another 5 days. When a bit of a shift will occur


Tameside 41, Oldham 42, Stockport 54, Salford 55, Bury 77, Rochdale 79, Trafford 85, Wigan 92, Manchester 239, Bolton 1022
 
shemnel said:
Interesting.

At some point don't we have to accept that covid risk/death falls in step with flu/risk death? I mean flu was suppressed to nearly nought this winter, which might account for 8 to 20k deaths, or 100 a day over a six month season (not many even pay it any mind!). I have no idea what covid will do next winter but I suspect it will be kicking about doing its thing.

I don't advocate letting rip but I do want to see maximum vaccine uptake then sensible conversation and acceptance that we have a new risk factor in town, with booster if and when necessary. Life must return, and I'm predisposed to life without as many extra controls as possible. Next 6 weeks are major.
Click to expand...

Yeah, absolutely. It's not going anywhere so it will be something we need to live with, eventually, think it's just a case of getting as many people vaccinated as possible so that the thing can be managed in seasonal bumps (in similar manner to flu) and not overwhelming waves.

This particular projection (which is one of many) takes into account a positive effect of seasonality helping us out a bit during this coming summer time, and vaccinating teens from September onwards. Whether those factors will be achieved or not remains to be seen and as such the projection would then change.
 
GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 356/ 169 / UP 187 Testing positive 9.8%

Manchester 44 / 42 / UP 2 Testing positive 9.7%

Bury 40 / 21 / UP 19 Testing positive 9.1%

Rochdale 36 / 50 / DOWN 14 Testing positive 9.7%

Trafford 36 / 29 / UP 7 Testing positive 7.1 %

Wigan 28 / 32 / DOWN 4 Testing positive 8.9%

Salford 22 / 30 / DOWN 8Testing positive 9.1%

Oldham 18 / 27 DOWN 9 Testing positive 9.8%

Stockport 18 / 32 / DOWN 14 Testing positive 7.2%

Tameside 18 / 34 DOWN 16 Testing positive 8.2



This table gets more extraordinary every day. Bolton now 312 Pop Score Points ahead of everyone else. Never seen a region this focused on one place with no spread to adjacent areas. This is very much a one town pandemic which is so far very good news for us all.


Other than Bolton obviously. But let us hope that starts to fall too soon.

As Bolton just keeps climbing the other boroughs are falling with three now on 18.

The minus numbers have some impact on this but are not why there is such a gulf between Bolton and the rest.

The news is days behind on these Bolton numbers you may have noticed. The evening news had the pop score in the 280s. That was 4 or 5 days ago. Using that 'finalised' data and why they keep missing what is happening now as opposed to last week.

When it does change positively we are going to know first here I suspect.
 
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