Coronavirus (2021) thread

[hammocity]

Yeah, absolutely. It's not going anywhere so it will be something we need to live with, eventually, think it's just a case of getting as many people vaccinated as possible so that the thing can be managed in seasonal bumps (in similar manner to flu) and not overwhelming waves.

This particular projection (which is one of many) takes into account a positive effect of seasonality helping us out a bit during this coming summer time, and vaccinating teens from September onwards. Whether those factors will be achieved or not remains to be seen and as such the projection would then change.

Could end up like AIDS, IE no cure but plenty of medication to allow people to live normal lives even if they get the virus short term or especially Long Covid.

 

[artfuldodger]

GM Weekly Pop Data after today:~

Borough / Pop Today / 7 days ago / up or down wk to wk/ Testing is % of local population who have tested positive for Covid over past year.

As ever with Pop going up is bad, going down good - the higher the number the better or worse depending on direction moving. The Pop is total cases in past week versus 100,000 POPulation to even out the comparison versus size and expected cases based on numbers living there.



Bolton 356/ 169 / UP 187 Testing positive 9.8%

Manchester 44 / 42 / UP 2 Testing positive 9.7%

Bury 40 / 21 / UP 19 Testing positive 9.1%

Rochdale 36 / 50 / DOWN 14 Testing positive 9.7%

Trafford 36 / 29 / UP 7 Testing positive 7.1 %

Wigan 28 / 32 / DOWN 4 Testing positive 8.9%

Salford 22 / 30 / DOWN 8Testing positive 9.1%

Oldham 18 / 27 DOWN 9 Testing positive 9.8%

Stockport 18 / 32 / DOWN 14 Testing positive 7.2%

Tameside 18 / 34 DOWN 16 Testing positive 8.2



This table gets more extraordinary every day. Bolton now 312 Pop Score Points ahead of everyone else. Never seen a region this focused on one place with no spread to adjacent areas. This is very much a one town pandemic which is so far very good news for us all.


Other than Bolton obviously. But let us hope that starts to fall too soon.

As Bolton just keeps climbing the other boroughs are falling with three now on 18.

The minus numbers have some impact on this but are not why there is such a gulf between Bolton and the rest.

The news is days behind on these Bolton numbers you may have noticed. The evening news had the pop score in the 280s. That was 4 or 5 days ago. Using that 'finalised' data and why they keep missing what is happening now as opposed to last week.

When it does change positively we are going to know first here I suspect.

Either the good people of Bolton don’t move about much, or the signs of increased transmission are more linked to multi generational housing, religious gatherings etc

 

[artfuldodger]

That's disappointing. I thought a double vaccine dose was pretty much guaranteed to keep you out of hospital. Obviously not :-(

Wasn’t there someone on here who ended up in hospital with COVID after 2 jabs? But just overnight?

 

[Marvin]

Interesting.

At some point don't we have to accept that covid risk/death falls in step with flu/risk death? I mean flu was suppressed to nearly nought this winter, which might account for 8 to 20k deaths, or 100 a day over a six month season (not many even pay it any mind!). I have no idea what covid will do next winter but I suspect it will be kicking about doing its thing.

I don't advocate letting rip but I do want to see maximum vaccine uptake then sensible conversation and acceptance that we have a new risk factor in town, with booster if and when necessary. Life must return, and I'm predisposed to life without as many extra controls as possible. Next 6 weeks are major.

Assuming no more variants. Unlikely.

 

[Healdplace]

HOSPITAL DATA



Summary:

UK patients sadly rise by 18 to just over 900 in hospital with Covid. England up too back over 750.

Small rises but unusual mid week. Hope for better tomorrow.

England admissions still staying low though. and well back into 2020. But NW patients edging up largely due to Bolton - 25 added just here in past 3 days.


UK total:




Patients up 18 to 910 - it was 39, 248 at the peak on 18 Jan - (fall of 38, 338 in 121 days) :- lowest since 14 September

Ventilators down 2 to 122 it was 4077 at the peak on 24 Jan - (fall of 3955 in 115 days) : lowest since 17 September


England only:-


ADMISSIONS:-

74 Covid admissions following 59, 70, 73, 74, 93, 79, 76 in the week before.

As you see daily Covid admission numbers in England under 100 consistently.




PATIENTS:-

Patients UP by 8 to 757 v 907 last week :- lowest since 13 September

Peak was 34, 336 on 18 Jan (fall 33, 579 in 121 days)

Ventilators: down 1 to 113 v 123 last week :- lowest since 17 September

Peak was 3736 on 24 Jan (fall 3623 in 115 days)



Regions:


Patient // Ventilators // change in past day to today and v last week


East down 4 to 43 v 66 // Stays at 4 v 4

London down 4 to 241 v 275 // Up 1 to 48 v 56

Midlands UP 9 to 143 v 182 // down 2 to 15 v 22

NE & Yorks UP 4 to 112 v 149 // Stays at 19 v 20

North West UP 9 to 151 v 158// UP 1 to 19 v 14

South East down 2 to 55 v 50 // stays at 6 v 3

South West down 4 to 12 v 27 // stays at 3 v 4

 

[shemnel]

Assuming no more variants. Unlikely.

Cheers Marvin

But yeah I take your point. That sort of future, one with regular vaccine evading variants, would be unbearable, frankly.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

That sort of future, one with regular vaccine evading variants, would be unbearable, frankly.

And thankfully very unlikely.

Covid mutates much more slowly than flu, and despite far, far more people being infected by covid than are in a typical flu season during the pandemic, there's no sign of a truly vaccine escape variant yet. Whereas for flu multiple new strains emerge every season.

Once vaccination is complete and widespread worldwide, there will be far less infections and far less potential for mutations as a result.

I don't think we need to worry about it.

 

[Blue Maverick]

I think this upsurge in the virus suits the government because all those who didn’t want it or were scared in certain communities are now queuing up in their thousands to get it, hopefully meaning we can get back to normal.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

Very positive article just gone up on the Telegraph (it's very reliable on Covid news) saying that the vaccination programme will be accelerated in order to offer all over 18s their first shot by the end of June. All over 30s will be eligible next week and all over 50s will have had both shots by June 7th.

Link but behind paywall

Exclusive: Plans to roll out Covid vaccines to all over-18s in June

Despite official caution, NHS bosses are preparing to accelerate programme as concerns rise over Indian variant

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Marvin]

And thankfully very unlikely.

Covid mutates much more slowly than flu, and despite far, far more people being infected by covid than are in a typical flu season during the pandemic, there's no sign of a truly vaccine escape variant yet. Whereas for flu multiple new strains emerge every season.

Once vaccination is complete and widespread worldwide, there will be far less infections and far less potential for mutations as a result.

I don't think we need to worry about it.

Shemnel misunderstood the point I was making. he referred to a tweet forecasting an epidemic based on a 25% more contagious variant but these models make assumptions. One is that the virus will stay static. It wont. That was all I was saying.