Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BerkshireBlue]

It did seem a tad far fetched but from what they were saying, when the debt is owned by the bank that prints the money its all down to how quickly they can write it off without hitting inflation etc.

for scale the Bank of England added about £600bn in Quantitative easing surrounding the 2008 recession. that was £600bn they just created out of thin air. which is nearly double that of the Furlough scheme.

Its all about how that gets put into the economy without trashing the value of the £ or trashing inflation etc.

if that debt is bought by a foreign entity then its different.

QE doesn't reduce debt it just hands £600bn to large bosses to spend where they want. Each week in lockdown is costing the country £10bn in debt which will have to be repaid all for the sake of about 2000 people who will die within 8 weeks time instead of within the next 4 weeks. The aftermath of this hasn't come yet I'm expecting some really bad times coming up. I feel sorry for the kids.

 

[Craig]

,No.

Well something does not add up with this bullshit we’re being fed

 

[blueparrot]

Well something does add up with this bullshit we’re being fed

What bullshit, he’s said nothing new today and said it’s looking good for July lifting.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

This wave is going to well undershoot the "optimistic" modeling predictions made 2
3 weeks ago.
Here are the figures for protection angainst severe illness as given as
LSHTM%/Imperial% -> Actual%

Protection against hospitalisation:
PZ 1 dose = 85%/76% -> 94%
PZ 2 doses = 90%/90% -> 96%
AZ 1 dose = 85%/78% -> 71%
AZ 2 doses = 90%/87% -> 92%

Infection and deaths are just as bad.
You just can't believe the modelling these institutions do.

A few weeks ago I create a model of my own to monitor what SAGE was saying as I felt they'd completely messed up. Below are the current results. Even I'm way over where I'd expect us to be and that margin of error is only getting bigger. There's zero justification in this delay

 

[grunge]

QE doesn't reduce debt it just hands £600bn to large bosses to spend where they want. Each week in lockdown is costing the country £10bn in debt which will have to be repaid all for the sake of about 2000 people who will die within 8 weeks time instead of within the next 4 weeks. The aftermath of this hasn't come yet I'm expecting some really bad times coming up. I feel sorry for the kids.

QE wasn't the term they were using, just one im using in my attempt to explain what they were trying to tell me. frankley the conversation was above my pay grade when it comes to economics.

Next time I chat to them I'll see if I can get a more accurate view of it all and some sources.

general jist was, when the debt is owned by the bank that prints the cash ( Bank of England ) then its all very different to debt bonds owned by external entities and can, in effect, be managed away without "repaying" it.

 

[RobMCFC]

I notice that Spain’s scientists are predicting that delta will be the dominant strain there in a few weeks.This is, of course, without vast numbers of UK tourists visiting there. They seem to accept it and aren’t panicking about what the effect will be.

Compare this to our government who are trying the panic the whole country, despite the fact that we already have the “most deadly” variant here.

 

[Healdplace]

England Hospital data over the weekend is showing some slightly encouraging signs for the NW but other regions as expected are ticking up.

Admissions over the past 3 days topped 200 for the first time on Thursday at 202 then fell to 185 Friday and 178 Saturday. These are always 2 dys behind the other hospital numbers. Previous week the numbers were 162 - 144 - 137.

NW numbers for the 3 days were 68 - 65 - 53 versus last week 63 - 51 - 57 - so it is down a little.

Though NW still the highest numbers other regions are closing in and wer up week to week

London 29 -28 - 27 TO 31 - 26 - 31

Midlands27 - 21 - 22 TO 30 - 29 - 34

NE & Yorkshire the biggest of all from 18 - 20 - 12 TO 40 - 39 - 38 Reflecting a big jumo in cases there this week.

Patients Fell Saturday from 1170 to 1143 Then rose Sunday to 1168 BUT today rose the biggest yet by 122 in the day to 1290.

Now that several regions are going up together and NW not yet falling enough these numbers are going to climb sadly I fear. Let us hope not too much 2000/3000 in England hospitals we can manage. We do not want to see it much above there if possible.

NW Patients went 411 - 384 - 412 - 436 - so up 25 of the 120 England rise of the weekend. Which is OK.

Last wk NW rose in the same period by 56 of the 109 - so proportionately That was more than double worse than this weekend.

London rose by 14 to 303, Midlands rose by 39 to 205 NE & Yorks by 26 to 175

But the increases are being spread around as you see.

Ventilators went over the weekend from 210 - 203 - 196 - but up today to 212 - so sadly a big jump today but only 2 over the period.

Last week they went up from 146 to 170 so that is clearly worse than this weekend.

Regionally the NW did OK. Still the highest but went 83 - 78 - 71 - 81 - so after big falla up the most todaybut down across the weekend and it would have been a very good weekend but for today.

Midlands rose from 24 to 33, and London from 55 to 56. Everywhere else like NW either fell or stayed the same.

 

[Kompany Car]

A few weeks ago I create a model of my own to monitor what SAGE was saying as I felt they'd completely messed up. Below are the current results. Even I'm way over where I'd expect us to be and that margin of error is only getting bigger. There's zero justification in this delay

View attachment 19755

The problem with any modelling is that in all but the most simple scenarios it’s always wrong. As with all models the initial conditions have to be defined which in this case is nigh on impossible. We just don’t know how many people have immunity outside the group who have been double vaccinated, how they will interact with the community in terms of social contact with vaccinated and non vaccinated population etc.
They will always err on the side of pessimism and the cumulative error from the input data all add up.
That all said, considering the very low rate of deaths and much slower increase in cases a re-evaluation should be undertaken ASAP.

 

[Healdplace]

In the UK there are 218 patients in the other 3 nations (158 Scotland, 44 Wales and 16 Northern Ireland)

Last week there were 180 patients - so up 38 - mostly in Scotland.

That means the UK total patients today is 1508 versus 1173 last week. Which is about a one third rise in the week. The week before it was 1020 - so a rise of around 15%.

Ventilators in the other 3 nations total 15 (1 Wales, 0 N Ireland. 14 Scotland)

Last week it was 21 - so these have fallen by 23% week to week.

So total ventilators in UK today is 227 versus 191 last week - a rise of about 20%

The week before it was 148 - a rise of about 30%

 

[BerkshireBlue]

The problem with any modelling is that in all but the most simple scenarios it’s always wrong. As with all models the initial conditions have to be defined which in this case is nigh on impossible. We just don’t know how many people have immunity outside the group who have been double vaccinated, how they will interact with the community in terms of social contact with vaccinated and non vaccinated population etc.
They will always err on the side of pessimism and the cumulative error from the input data all add up.
That all said, considering the very low rate of deaths and much slower increase in cases a re-evaluation should be undertaken ASAP.

for me their models are completely wrong and they need to stand up and explain why in a tribunal in the following weeks. Yes all models are wrong but even a person looking at only the public data could create a quick model that outperforms theirs within the space of 30 minutes. Questions need to be asked. The same thing happened in March with the herd immunity bullshit, right at the start you could get an estimated 500,000 deaths number within a day using prescription data, population, and age skews. It seemed to take them a whole month to get this figure probably using slow algorithms ran on huge computers for weeks on end. As soon as they knew the number they seemed to panic as the realisation that they've fucked up sank in.