Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Healdplace said:
Thank you very much. I would not have had a clue how to do that and like alkmost everything else happening it shows the story quite clearly I have been arguing only in words.

Although cases are rising it matters fairly little as the vaccinations are winning and hospitalisations and death are reduced to a smaller and smaller fraction of the past waves as you increase the numbers with some degree of immunity - primarily via vaccination but also through the young people catching it and developing antibodies.

Neither means this is over. As is said repeatedly because it is the big truth right now - until we vaccinate the planet OR seal the UK off from all nations not yet more or less fully vaccinated until they get there (which we never will) the risk remains of a vaccine evading variant spreading that really sets us back. Probably not forever but by many months.

We will defeat that too but at the price of another lock down and tweaking of the vaccines for boosters as we will be doing for some time now anyway in precautionary mode.

But unless and until one of those emerges or we have the stupidity to lay down the welcome mat if it appear elsewhere in the world and not here then as I said yesterday paraphrasing Churchill after the Battle of Britain.

We may be at the beginning of the end if the above does not happen in the coming months and we rake up vaccinations in poorer nations.

Or at the end of the beggining if we do not and allow the opportunity for the virus to regain the lead.

We are 2-1 up with either the final whistle, extra time or penalties looming in the near to mid future.

We should see this out. But do we pull everyone back and defend or go all out for one more goal to make the result safe.

Not an easy option and depends who is manager and their track record in these situations.

The unexpected can always happen. Look at the two goalkeepers scoring critical goals in the final seconds that changed everything over the past month or so.

But as the saying goes in aviation - there are old pilots and there are bold pilots but there are not many old, bold pilots. So the path we tread is not a given right now. We can only do what seems most sensible and hope. But we are on track. No question of that imo.
Click to expand...
I wonder if the Government has modelled the risk of a more serious vaccine-beating mutation emerging. This must be the most crucial question every country faces at the moment. I don't know if it is even possible to predict this because presumably mutations are random. But someone, somewhere, must have an idea of the potential threat.
 
Keith Moncrieff said:
Looks like they’re messing around with vaccinations
Click to expand...
From the article:

So far, just over 3% of the adult population has been fully vaccinated and about 25% of Australians have received a first dose

That's a very low figure and I've no idea if how much of it is down to low take-up or slow rollout but there was a suggestion on here that being a country that has had such low numbers of Covid cases compared to other nations, some may be lured into a false sense of security and think that they don't need the vaccine. This could be a major problem for Australia going forward because while a cluster of several dozen cases can be brought under control, it only needs one asymptomatic carrier infected with the Delta variant being in a crowded place for it to become a super-spreader event. And given that so few Australians have had Covid and they're miles behind many other countries on vaccinations, there's no herd immunity for the virus to come up against.
 
Latest data on Covid antibody positivity measured from healthy blood donors in England by age ranges.

Levels achieved by both vaccination / or catching Covid I presume.

Numbers still rising weekly.

AGE // % ANTIBODYS THIS WEEK - UP FROM SEVEN DAYS BEFORE


30 - 39 // 68% (up from 57.5%)

40 - 49 // 93.3% (up from 90%)

50- 59 // 98.5% (up from 98.3%)

60 - 69 // 98.6% (up from 98.4%)

70 - 84 // 98.8% (up from 98.3%)

Looks more good news. But I will let the experts comment.
 
grunge said:


Ivermectin data, looking like there is some very good results starting to show. Meta study rather than double blind but this is a peer reviewed paper using data from lots of other trials.

-Probably helps reduce deaths by 62%
-Possibly reduces transmission by 86%

Not had chance to watch the whole thing.
Click to expand...

He's been banging on about the benefits of Ivermectin for months
 
Really good thread (and linked reports) from PHE scientist.



Around half of over 50s hospitalisations and deaths are in the fully vaccinated.

This does *not* mean vaccines aren't effective; most of this population is now fully vaccinated, so your personal risk is much lower if vaccinated.

But it does illustrate that many, even most, of those worst affected in this wave are not vaccine refusing idiots, but rather innocent victims of a deadly disease.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Really good thread (and linked reports) from PHE scientist.



Around half of over 50s hospitalisations and deaths are in the fully vaccinated.

This does *not* mean vaccines aren't effective; most of this population is now fully vaccinated, so your personal risk is much lower if vaccinated.

But it does illustrate that many, even most, of those worst affected in this wave are not vaccine refusing idiots, but rather innocent victims of a deadly disease.
Click to expand...

If 98% of over 50s have antibodies (most double jabbed) then doesn’t this suggest that a disproportionate number of people, worst affected, haven’t been vaccinated. I agree that we haven’t got loads of deceased people who didn’t take the vaccine and the virus is the killer.

Likewise, with so many people with antibodies, we can be fairly confident of the high take up of the vaccines across virtually all communities, including the current roll out out to younger adults.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
If 98% of over 50s have antibodies (most double jabbed) then doesn’t this suggest that a disproportionate number of people, worst affected, haven’t been vaccinated. I agree that we haven’t got loads of deceased people who didn’t take the vaccine and the virus is the killer.

Likewise, with so many people with antibodies, we can be fairly confident of the high take up of the vaccines across virtually all communities, including the current roll out out to younger adults.
Click to expand...
That data on the 50 deaths in double vaccinated people aged over 50 - nearly half of all deaths - will be wildly misused as it will forget one key thing,

The 50 come from a tiny percentage of all the cases testing positive for Delta now. Indeed they are in the hundreds versus the tens of thousands of younger people catching it.

So yes that creates a much higher death rate in the over 50s - as in those almost certainly with co morbidities that have always stacked the decks against older ages - BUT it also misses the fact that the actual number would have been far far more had the vaccines not worked. Certainly 500 not 50. Quite possibly even more.

You can make it say look half of those who died were double vaccinated or the vaccine saved 90% of those who would have died.

And which you argue will be down to what you want the numbers to prove.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
If 98% of over 50s have antibodies (most double jabbed) then doesn’t this suggest that a disproportionate number of people, worst affected, haven’t been vaccinated. I agree that we haven’t got loads of deceased people who didn’t take the vaccine and the virus is the killer.

Likewise, with so many people with antibodies, we can be fairly confident of the high take up of the vaccines across virtually all communities, including the current roll out out to younger adults.
Click to expand...

Agree re. disproportionate effect on unvaxxed.

The 98% figure, whilst very encouraging, is almost certainly not representative of the whole population. It's taken from blood donors, who are probably far more likely to be vaccinated than the general populace. That's because they're self selecting people who are concerned about public health.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
✖
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.