Here's HealdPlace data presented graphically comparing cases rates per capita vs vaccination.
It shows a clear correlation between the case rate and vaccination rate. That is good. It is what you would expect.
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Thank you very much. I would not have had a clue how to do that and like alkmost everything else happening it shows the story quite clearly I have been arguing only in words.
Although cases are rising it matters fairly little as the vaccinations are winning and hospitalisations and death are reduced to a smaller and smaller fraction of the past waves as you increase the numbers with some degree of immunity - primarily via vaccination but also through the young people catching it and developing antibodies.
Neither means this is over. As is said repeatedly because it is the big truth right now - until we vaccinate the planet OR seal the UK off from all nations not yet more or less fully vaccinated until they get there (which we never will) the risk remains of a vaccine evading variant spreading that really sets us back. Probably not forever but by many months.
We will defeat that too but at the price of another lock down and tweaking of the vaccines for boosters as we will be doing for some time now anyway in precautionary mode.
But unless and until one of those emerges or we have the stupidity to lay down the welcome mat if it appear elsewhere in the world and not here then as I said yesterday paraphrasing Churchill after the Battle of Britain.
We may be at the beginning of the end if the above does not happen in the coming months and we rake up vaccinations in poorer nations.
Or at the end of the beggining if we do not and allow the opportunity for the virus to regain the lead.
We are 2-1 up with either the final whistle, extra time or penalties looming in the near to mid future.
We should see this out. But do we pull everyone back and defend or go all out for one more goal to make the result safe.
Not an easy option and depends who is manager and their track record in these situations.
The unexpected can always happen. Look at the two goalkeepers scoring critical goals in the final seconds that changed everything over the past month or so.
But as the saying goes in aviation - there are old pilots and there are bold pilots but there are not many old, bold pilots. So the path we tread is not a given right now. We can only do what seems most sensible and hope. But we are on track. No question of that imo.