Coronavirus (2021) thread

[bobbyowenquiff]

Case numbers continuing that exponential rise, maybe a bit faster even.

Vaccinations now averaging 350k and falling; 175k completely vaxxed if two doses required.

Cases at 20kish reported, guess 60k in reality. Plus cases only hit the susceptible population.

Another fortnight on current trends and there could be as many people becoming immune through infection as vaccination.

Hard to imagine we won't see signs of growth starting to ease over that time, otherwise it could go properly tits up.

And 60k at Wembley, 140k at Silverstone a really bad idea if we don't see some signs of improvement soon.

They must have an idea of when herd immunity starts kicking in in the UK by now. The combination of vaccines and infections must get us there at some point.

 

[Healdplace]

Cases across the regions:


Change in last 24 hrs V seven days ago



SOUTH


East UP 458 to 1140 V 413

London UP 813 to 2306 V 1023 - more than doubling here

South East UP 853 to 2072 V 818 - ditto

South West UP 709 to 1508 V 746 - and you got it






MIDLANDS



East UP 517 to 1261 V 508

West UP 441 to 1630 V 637 - almost tripling here








NORTH



North East UP 1043 to 2105 V 848 - a massive rise here in what was a few weeks ago the lowest in the UK with numers under 100 for days on end.


Yorkshire UP 1060 to 2289 V 991- Has to be the missing data creating all of these hige rises in 24 hours



AND

NORTH WEST UP 1405 to 4168 V 2441 - there WERE a lot of mssing cases here sadly



Past weeks NW numbers are 2441 - 2790 - 3620 - 3318 - 3440 - 3693 - 2763 - 4168

Equivalent NW numbers a week earlier 2134 - 2262 - 2017 - 2157 - 2858 - 2754 - 2538 - 2441

GM numbers in past week 1086 - 1248 - 1606 - 1541 - 1572 - 1579 - 1280 - 194


The gap between GM and NW is at its biggest yet today at 2227 up from 1704 a week ago.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

They must have an idea of when herd immunity starts kicking in in the UK by now. The combination of vaccines and infections must get us there at some point.

I think most people expected it to at least blunt the growth by now.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Case numbers continuing that exponential rise, maybe a bit faster even.

Vaccinations now averaging 350k and falling; 175k completely vaxxed if two doses required.

Cases at 20kish reported, guess 60k in reality. Plus cases only hit the susceptible population.

Another fortnight on current trends and there could be as many people becoming immune through infection as vaccination.

Hard to imagine we won't see signs of growth starting to ease over that time, otherwise it could go properly tits up.

And 60k at Wembley, 140k at Silverstone a really bad idea if we don't see some signs of improvement soon.

The Adidas Pfizer brigade must be contributing to the slowdown in vaccinations.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Germany has an average cases per 1 million count the last seven days of 52 cases - the UK 1506.

53.6 are vaccinated with the first shot, 35.6 % are fully vaccinated

Right now the delta variant is still spread very low in Germany. It will come to us, but the German interest is to stop that process as long as possible until more people have their vaccinations. (Daily rate of vaccinations is about 1 million). That is why there is a 14 day quarantine even for fully vaccinated people and without nearly no exception for people that come (back) from virusvariant areas - not just from England, but now e.g. Portugal, too.

Global dates about vaccinations: https://pandemicend.info/ (the numbers I had from Germany were from another source)

Good to see Germany with low case numbers. I hope it continues.

 

[Summerbuzz]

Right....

Enlightenment values kid. Rationality, the common good.

S'why we're in cloud cuckoo land politically. Even the Lib Dems opposed vaccine passports - stealth ID cards. Ridiculous. Their base will look at the utilitarian side of it and go for it in spades. But because it doesn't do well in focus groups - they won't propose it. Because the focus group is a reactionary snapshot. It opposes options before they happen - that later on naturally become preferable to the majority. Ahead of time, people generally don't feel the need, they just see the change, and weigh up the imposition it certainly would amount to, against nothing, because it's just one possible aspect of a future that may well happen. They know they don't really know one way or the other. But what matters is that the group is ok. And the reactionary who is most sensitive to the imposition, will be very unhappy, and that will shift opinion towards sympathy for him, change the perception of the benefit and the cost, which is why focus groups always work the way they do, why Labour and the Libs are completely lost, and to no small extent, why events have unfolded the way they have over the last fifty years.

The focus group and social dynamic is biased this way towards the reactionary. The education system is biased towards the liberal. If people really want the liberal bias out of education and mass media, we're going full on towards reactionary. And there is some argument that we are.

The only difference now is that people can choose their media, choose to have the liberal bias completely exculpated. And that's what's playing out - the balance used to exist in a huge number individuals - rather than in the whole. Now we'll see the majority of people be members of one clan or another, with each clan fundamentally looked at things differently, and apparently that's ok, because it was always understood that one side balances the other out, right? No! Not between groups. But in individuals! And now we'll see what that means. It means America. Where thought differs from region to region, because the education offered to individuals - and also the laws in place - differ from state to state.

I mean, you get it, right? Why should people do something they don't want to, that isn't overwhelmingly dictated by reason? Because of the consensus and the need of the whole?

Sure. But don't pretend there is no way a young individual could say, I don't want a vaccine and be reasonably rational. Instead we're trying to convince them there's no argument, no fine line, no decision to be made, for them. But naturally there is. Because it's their body. And the science isn't that conclusive for every last young fit human that it is better for them as an individual. Reason like that will not convince them. It probably shouldn't. But that's the way arguments go online and in modern society.

What we really have to do is back it up, and tell them, society needs you to do it, and society expects you to do it. Remind them how a sick society will be a poor society. That this goes on as long as it does, that they'll end up with a jab one way or another, and they're wasting time. That's your best bet.

But it won't happen, whilst people like Javid come out today and say it's over! The end!

But that's a Tory thing, and the reality is that the rest of us haven't made the case repeatedly as being one of society's need, of collective need, of us all suffering if we don't sort this out.

Instead we insist on using the Tory style argument of 'it's the only rational choice for the individual'. When, it obviously fucking isn't that conclusive. Because the future where after 10 years no problems are reported hasn't happened yet. Anyone can see that.

And anyone can pretend they don't, because rational arguments appealing to an individual's self-interest are preferable.

Sure. If the arguments aren't as flawed as that. These people are reasonable. But they know we'll bat that concern away. Likely won't actually pick out and expresss that one point about the future being uncertain. But that's what'll be happening behind the scenes, that's what'll play out in groups. You can't beat it directly.

You just can't.

That's why we brainwashed everyone to believe in science, and society. That's why we imposed guilt trips. Invoked pride. Said things like, England expects every man to do their duty.

And kept it up with regular Mass Media brainwashings. One a day for everyone. Everyone listening to that same clear, voice, saying something very simple and clear. That's how you get the sort of argument and discussion that doesn't end with one side going mental about rationality whilst the other lots' perfectly rational (in common sense terms) doubt sits unaddressed.

Oh whatever. Just give out the flags! Tell them they're the greatest part of the greatest nation of all time just for getting out of bed and going to work. Then when you need something for the collective - uhhh. You already gave them that lollipop. And now you're ideologically opposed to more incentives. Idiots.

 

[Healdplace]

Full GM details:


Total cases 1941 - UP 661 on Yesterday - from NW rise of 1405.

This is jut below the 50% par of around 702- which is OK. May infer NW is flattening off. We will see.

Wk to wk UP 855 when the NW rose by 1727 So GM is again almost exactly par near 50%.



BOROUGH / CASES TODAY / V YESTERDAY / V LAST WEEK



BOLTON 121 / UP 27 / UP 42

BURY 123 / UP 20 / UP 52

MANCHESTER 451 / UP 144 / UP 185

OLDHAM 180 / UP 78 / UP 87

ROCHDALE 142 / UP 21 / UP 69

SALFORD 218 / UP 93 / UP 107

STOCKPORT 142 / UP 70 / UP 53

TAMESIDE 140 / UP 57 / UP 62

TRAFFORD 158 / UP 53 / UP 67

WIGAN 266 / DOWN 98 / UP 131


What has to be the missing data from yesterday added in every borough UP week to week and day to day by some pretty huge numbers.

Not muh good to say about anywhere and these numbers will decimate GM Pop Scores today.

Stockport despite suffering like everyone else still ate off another huge chunk from Trafford's lead in the overall Pop Score race. Oly 16 cases fewer but a smaller borough means Tameside should have had much less to be level with Stockprt, So it was 19 worse in Pop Score rise again today. Now just 42 ahead of Stockport and lost 100 points in under a week.

But even Stockport;s Pop score will be up big today with these numbers.

If they are artificially high then the following days where they are lower will gradually reset the clock. We will see.

 

[SWP's back]

Enlightenment values kid. Rationality, the common good.

S'why we're in cloud cuckoo land politically. Even the Lib Dems opposed vaccine passports - stealth ID cards. Ridiculous. Their base will look at the utilitarian side of it and go for it in spades. But because it doesn't do well in focus groups - they won't propose it. Because the focus group is a reactionary snapshot. It opposes options before they happen - that later on naturally become preferable to the majority. Ahead of time, people generally don't feel the need, they just see the change, and weigh up the imposition it certainly would amount to, against nothing, because it's just one possible aspect of a future that may well happen. They know they don't really know one way or the other. But what matters is that the group is ok. And the reactionary who is most sensitive to the imposition, will be very unhappy, and that will shift opinion towards sympathy for him, change the perception of the benefit and the cost, which is why focus groups always work the way they do, why Labour and the Libs are completely lost, and to no small extent, why events have unfolded the way they have over the last fifty years.

The focus group and social dynamic is biased this way towards the reactionary. The education system is biased towards the liberal. If people really want the liberal bias out of education and mass media, we're going full on towards reactionary. And there is some argument that we are.

The only difference now is that people can choose their media, choose to have the liberal bias completely exculpated. And that's what's playing out - the balance used to exist in a huge number individuals - rather than in the whole. Now we'll see the majority of people be members of one clan or another, with each clan fundamentally looked at things differently, and apparently that's ok, because it was always understood that one side balances the other out, right? No! Not between groups. But in individuals! And now we'll see what that means. It means America. Where thought differs from region to region, because the education offered to individuals - and also the laws in place - differ from state to state.

I mean, you get it, right? Why should people do something they don't want to, that isn't overwhelmingly dictated by reason? Because of the consensus and the need of the whole?

Sure. But don't pretend there is no way a young individual could say, I don't want a vaccine and be reasonably rational. Instead we're trying to convince them there's no argument, no fine line, no decision to be made, for them. But naturally there is. Because it's their body. And the science isn't that conclusive for every last young fit human that it is better for them as an individual. Reason like that will not convince them. It probably shouldn't. But that's the way arguments go online and in modern society.

What we really have to do is back it up, and tell them, society needs you to do it, and society expects you to do it. Remind them how a sick society will be a poor society. That this goes on as long as it does, that they'll end up with a jab one way or another, and they're wasting time. That's your best bet.

But it won't happen, whilst people like Javid come out today and say it's over! The end!

But that's a Tory thing, and the reality is that the rest of us haven't made the case repeatedly as being one of society's need, of collective need, of us all suffering if we don't sort this out.

Instead we insist on using the Tory style argument of 'it's the only rational choice for the individual'. When, it obviously fucking isn't that conclusive. Because the future where after 10 years no problems are reported hasn't happened yet. Anyone can see that.

And anyone can pretend they don't, because rational arguments appealing to an individual's self-interest are preferable.

Sure. If the arguments aren't as flawed as that. These people are reasonable. But they know we'll bat that concern away. Likely won't actually pick out and expresss that one point about the future being uncertain. But that's what'll be happening behind the scenes, that's what'll play out in groups. You can't beat it directly.

You just can't.

That's why we brainwashed everyone to believe in science, and society. That's why we imposed guilt trips. Invoked pride. Said things like, England expects every man to do their duty.

And kept it up with regular Mass Media brainwashings. One a day for everyone. Everyone listening to that same clear, voice, saying something very simple and clear. That's how you get the sort of argument and discussion that doesn't end with one side going mental about rationality whilst the other lots' perfectly rational (in common sense terms) doubt sits unaddressed.

Oh whatever. Just give out the flags! Tell them they're the greatest part of the greatest nation of all time just for getting out of bed and going to work. Then when you need something for the collective - uhhh. You already gave them that lollipop. And now you're ideologically opposed to more incentives. Idiots.

Hope you get the help you need pal and I’m glad you got it off your chest.

 

[Del_Bosque]

I think most people expected it to at least blunt the growth by now.

this is the part i’m not understanding at all

the R number is increasing rapidly with so many vaccinated/previous infections

also the hospitalisations aren’t tracking infections, they are increasing but no inline with infections.

basically I don’t think any models are worth anything at the moment

 

[Healdplace]

Greater Manchester

Weekly total cases:-




Bury 716, Tameside 752, Stockport 755, Rochdale 786, Trafford 802 , Bolton 822, Oldham 853 , Salford 1196 . Wigan 1439, Manchester 2658.



Manchester, Salford and Wigan all over 4 figures weekly and climbed a lot today.

Well ahead of the other 7 who are bunched together more closely.

But no borough now below 700 - as in 100 cases a day average.

Oldham;s bad numbers which were forseen by Zoe a few days before they happned saw it leap over Bolton that has stabilised and is heading towards a shock best in GM et of score,

It's 121 was the lowest in the county today. It will not be the last time.

All we need now is to see 9 other boroughs follow the Bolton track.