Coronavirus (2021) thread

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My son had a positive lateral flow test this morning, just waiting on the PCR result now. Gutted as that pretty much ends the school year for both our kids, so they’ll miss out on a few things they were looking to. We were also meant to be going up to the Lakes this weekend for my birthday which is a bit of a pisser. Ah well.
Have you all had a pcr or just your lad?
 
Just my lad so far. We're doing lateral flow test this afternoon.
Would have probably made sense to all have a pcr, too late now though I suppose. Soon as my daughter tested positive on a lateral flow I booked all 4 of us for pcr’s, which came back positive for my son as well who at that point had no symptoms and was busy cracking jokes about his sister feeling shit.
 
Are you still thinking we might get to 100K cases a day? I know you could well be right but there are some hopeful signs. Unless I am just being too optimistic and the opening up will trigger a cascade reaction.

I would say we're very likely - near certain even - to get above 50,000 and maybe 50:50 to go above 100,000.

We need less than two doublings to get to 100,000. Doubling time is currently (purely based on rise over last 7 days) a little over a fortnight, but we're about to make changes we'd expect to accelerate transmission. Equally, vaccination and infection continues to push the other way.

But there's so much uncertainty, could be way off. In Netherlands, it's gone absolutely nuts. Equally, US seems far more measured.

Schools out may help a lot- but many children are already sent home anyway. How many organisations (shops, hospitality, mass events, transport) impose their own restrictions even when not obliged to by law will make a difference. Public response to being asked to take "personal responsibility" is entirely unknown. etc etc etc
 
Scotland Data

NB: A PROBLEM AT THE GLASGOW LIGHTHOUSE TESTING LAB SEEMS TO HAVE LED TO MISSING CASES. NOT CLEAR FOR HOW LONG.

0 deaths - was 0 last week

2134 cases - was 2372 last week

11.1% positivity - was 12.6% last week

469 patients - up 25 on yesterday - was 338 last week

40 ventilated icu - same as yesterday - was 30 last week
 
I would say we're very likely - near certain even - to get above 50,000 and maybe 50:50 to go above 100,000.

We need less than two doublings to get to 100,000. Doubling time is currently (purely based on rise over last 7 days) a little over a fortnight, but we're about to make changes we'd expect to accelerate transmission. Equally, vaccination and infection continues to push the other way.

But there's so much uncertainty, could be way off. In Netherlands, it's gone absolutely nuts. Equally, US seems far more measured.

Schools out may help a lot- but many children are already sent home anyway. How many organisations (shops, hospitality, mass events, transport) impose their own restrictions even when not obliged to by law will make a difference. Public response to being asked to take "personal responsibility" is entirely unknown. etc etc etc
What I would say is that I have barely been anywhere beyond my small cul de sac in the last 16 months bar the walk to get my three injections nearby. (Last years flu and two Covid).

Until I had to do about 10 days ago when my computer blew and family drove me around GM and to two separate stores via main roads and motorways.

I was very surprised how busy things were - the roads, the shops, the people many - but nowhere near all - wearing masks.

If I had not known we were under restrictions I would never have guessed.

I am wondering how much difference the official changes will really make to the ones most people seem to have made anyway,
 
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