Coronavirus (2021) thread

[lancs blue]

We're fucked..hate to see it in another 3/4 weeks

Best to see what happens over the rest of the week before getting too giddy/depressed either way.

 

[Del_Bosque]

Can anyone explain this nightclub thing.
BloJo going on about mega risks and vaccine certificates required end September?
Why are they open now then?

they haven’t offered everyone 2 doses yet so it would be discriminatory to insist on vaccine passports atm as not everyone has had the chance.

From September though, it’s basically fuck you if you chose not to have it.

 

[Healdplace]

We're fucked..hate to see it in another 3/4 weeks

Think that is an over reaction. Or I hope it is would be a fairer comment.

We have known for a while a 100 day death number in England is coming, None of the predictions saw less than that.

Recall we peaked with similar cases at just under 2000 UK deaths in January - 150 - 200 would still be just a tenth of that and vaccine created. AND 800 or so lives saved in just one day alone.

It could well prove better than that with 100 or so around the peak.

Deaths lag cases by weeks. These are from cases that occurred maybe 3 weeks ago.

They will go up or down and more importantly spread across far more parts of England than just the NW as they do.

What happens to the cases in the next few weeks tells us where we will be with these death numbers in mid to late August

And - as I said before - today and tomorrow are usually the biggest numbers of the week due to weekend registration catch up.

 

[Len Rum]

they haven’t offered everyone 2 doses yet so it would be discriminatory to insist on vaccine passports atm as not everyone has had the chance.

From September though, it’s basically fuck you if you chose not to have it.

OK so don't open up night clubs

 

[Gabriel]

In the Netherland, the downward trend for new cases continues, 6,823 today; that figure was 7,818 last Tuesday but 11,283 last Thursday. Hospital and ICU admissions up, however.

 

[Jack74]

OK so don't open up night clubs

That’s the spirit

 

[Elbow beards]

OK so don't open up night clubs

I thought the same, 2 months of nightclubing. Letting it rip through the 18 to 30s then decide you need a passport. Very strange.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

good news so far. await England stats.

I am hoping that as Scotland and the North West were first hit with the Indian Variant they are first out. The rest of the UK is behind so the cases will go up but will fall if they follow Scotland's and the North Wests trend?

 

[Toney’s bookie]

Don’t forget that due to our measure of ‘deaths within 28 days’ then deaths will always go up as infections do, even if no one died of the virus.

If 1000 people a day died every day in the UK, for whatever reason, and a completely harmless virus came along that masses of the population caught, then the number of deaths within ‘28 days of a positive test’ would rise significantly, even if it was totally harmless.

This isn’t to dismiss covid before I get piled on, it’s just making a point I flagged up last year.

As many have pointed out when people were dismissing covid, excess deaths will always be the purest measure of the effect, particularly if no restrictions are in place. This info is going to be key going forward even more so than hospital admissions. Again, if 1000 people a day are admitted to hospital for any reason, it follows that if any virus was infecting the population in widespread numbers, more of those admitted would test positive than when that virus wasn’t there - even it the number of admissions stayed stable at 1000 per day.

You have to be very careful with stats and be absolutely sure the info you are looking at is what you are looking for.

 

[west didsblue]

Based on absolutely fuck all except gut feeling I reckon case numbers are peaking sooner rather than later.