Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Del_Bosque said:
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And from the same source, specially for the bluemooners who continually insist, against all evidence, that models always overestimate impacts. Currently above 95% confidence intervals on 2 of the three models used to inform the relaxation.



(real message from these models is that there is huge uncertainty, and the possibility of a further significant rise remains. Far too soon the know the impact of any behavioral changes from Monday)
 
Wales Data

i death - was 1 last week

941 cases - was 1135 last week

7.5% positivity - was 5.8% last week

100 patients - up 15 on yesterday - was 67 last week

20 ventilated - down 1 since yesterday - was 9 last week

THE HOSPITAL NUMBERS ARE STARTING TO REFLECT THE CASE RISES

THOUGH AS IN ENGLAND AND SCOTLAND CASE NUMBERS WEEK TO WEEK ARE DOWN HERE TOO
 
Japan becomes the first country to approve ronapreve covid 19 treatment..hopefully more treatments will come available soon.
 
This weeks ONS data on the percentage of adults who have antibodies for Covid - from either vaccination or catching Covid is: (wk ending 4 July - it is always 2 weeks old)

Nations - Latest number V previous week (wk ending 27 Jun)


ENGLAND 91.9% v 89.8%

N IRELAND 90% v 87.2%

SCOTLAND 88.6% v 84.7%

WALES 92.6% v 91.8%


Maybe if the seemingly unexpected data on cases falling in recent days - or at least stalling - if not a blip or data glitch as it may be - then it is down to these numbers (which have been going up every week and are now 2 weeks on from the above given the time lag). Could be they are tipping the balance?

Do we know similar numbers from other countries?
 
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I found one report from last September (pre vaccines) in the US and that discovered just 9% even after the first big wave.

It was optimistically suggesting we needed to get to 70% or so to slow Covid down.

The variants had other ideas,

But there surely has to be a point when these things become endemic and manageable and these antibody numbers going up at the rate they are in the UK suggests we are at least world beating in achieving that.

What difference - if any - it makes to this virus is very much another matter.

As the scientists making their estimates have to know about these weekly ONS data studies and their track and decided it will not have a major effect on the course of this wave in the immediate future anyway.

Perhaps the next wave - IF there is one and not a newer variant that makes the numbers from the current ones irrelevant,
 
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