Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Or maybe, just maybe, Boris knew all along exactly what he was doing and has played an absolute blinder. He delayed it a month knowing we needed a certain amount of vaccines to stop the rise.
As I have posted for weeks there did seem a risky strategy at play to race vaccine/herd immunity levels rising together via fast spreading cases amongst the least badly impacted who were saying no to vaccines with the knowledge it would likely not peak hospital numbers too badly in the Summer.

As I have also said day by day as it appeared the peaking in Scotland and North West - the first two into the Delta wave - had become now pretty hard to deny over the past couple of weeks and not just the past few days - because the data in THOSE areas had had enough time for it to show that it has filtered into the hospital numbers now - so is clearly real not test related.

Again as I have kept stressing the NUMBER of tests means less than the positivity rating FROM those tests. That is falling too where cases have been going down - eg Scotland. More evidence it is real not just some lab glitch.

Most expected the other regions to take over that increase from Scotland and NW where the falls are not so much a surprise on the first into a wave first out of it principle - as the other regions clearly were until a few days ago but not at a remarkable upward level.

As I also have suggested (and thats all it is - ie a guess) perhaps the time bought for these other regions before Delta spread there was enough to edge up levels of immunity via added weeks of jabbing to tip the balance and lower their peaks to below expectation.

This MIGHT be what is happening. But it is for now speculation, and just by me not any kind of expert.

And until we see it filtering through to falls in hospital days in those other regions - which ARE currently going up - then it is wise to be cautiously optimistic as that is the most balanced way to view what might be happening.

If it is panning out like that it will be very good news, obviously.

But scientists are cautious and most will wait for finalised data to be sure,

But they will be just as hopeful this is for real and will be sustained.

Only time will tell.
 
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Any explanation as to why its not so unexpected? Are we still to view these numbers with suspicion?

Also for anyone that may know - if/when we hit the herd immunity number will the numbers drop like a stone or will we see a more gradual decline?
I just think that the peak was reached sooner than some of the experts were predicting for a variety of reasons:

1) Virtually all restrictions had been lifted weeks earlier
2) The Euros contributed to cases rising, especially the Final itself when millions up and down the country went on the lash and packed out pubs. The biggest super spreader event of the whole pandemic IMO
3) We saw with Bolton that Delta leads to a fast rise in cases but it tails off reasonably quickly too

With less people to infect over time, more people vaccinated as time goes on making it less transmissible, the warm weather driving many outside, schools finishing up, and the fact that cases can’t keep rising exponentially forever, then I’m surprised this wasn’t foreseen by more people.

I will add that this government are a lot of things, but I don’t see anything dodgy about the figures whatsoever.
 
Possibly but it does mean that people only had one dose for quite a bit longer and one dose is supposedly nowhere near as effective as 2. It all seems a bit of a balancing act.
And the youth cohorts are less likely to die from Covid. Again another correct decision.
Whitty, Valance and SAGE have got it right.
 
Not a cat in hell’s chance Johnson knows what he’s doing. He has a 100% record of making the absolute worst decision possible Right through the pandemic.
I have a lot of sympathy with your view because even a broken clock gets it right twice a day. However I do think that he deserves credit for the fast move on purchasing vaccines.
 
I have a lot of sympathy with your view because even a broken clock gets it right twice a day. However I do think that he deserves credit for the fast move on purchasing vaccines.
Well that depends how you view it. The rest of the world think we were selfish and greedy and used bullying tactics with Astra Zeneca. I’m also not convinced that was the right decision in the long term because the az vaccine seems less efficient than the others. Let’s see how things pan out. Let’s hope you’re right that a gambler does occasionally strike lucky but he will never get any credit with me for anything beyond luck because he’s a fraud and an embarrassment.
 
I'm not saying that any of the scientists are wrong in their forecasts that cases will rise due to the lifting of the remaining restrictions and I sincerely hope that they are.However, why do I have the feeling that some of them and probably some of the media to that extent, are actually hoping that they do.
You have the feeling because they literally are. They’re a fucking poison!

The idiots in the general public trapped in social media echo chambers who lap up and spread the poison don’t help neither, they give the journos the platform to spew this shit all the time.
 
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