As I have posted for weeks there did seem a risky strategy at play to race vaccine/herd immunity levels rising together via fast spreading cases amongst the least badly impacted who were saying no to vaccines with the knowledge it would likely not peak hospital numbers too badly in the Summer.
As I have also said day by day as it appeared the peaking in Scotland and North West - the first two into the Delta wave - had become now pretty hard to deny over the past couple of weeks and not just the past few days - because the data in THOSE areas had had enough time for it to show that it has filtered into the hospital numbers now - so is clearly real not test related.
Again as I have kept stressing the NUMBER of tests means less than the positivity rating FROM those tests. That is falling too where cases have been going down - eg Scotland. More evidence it is real not just some lab glitch.
Most expected the other regions to take over that increase from Scotland and NW where the falls are not so much a surprise on the first into a wave first out of it principle - as the other regions clearly were until a few days ago but not at a remarkable upward level.
As I also have suggested (and thats all it is - ie a guess) perhaps the time bought for these other regions before Delta spread there was enough to edge up levels of immunity via added weeks of jabbing to tip the balance and lower their peaks to below expectation.
This MIGHT be what is happening. But it is for now speculation, and just by me not any kind of expert.
And until we see it filtering through to falls in hospital days in those other regions - which ARE currently going up - then it is wise to be cautiously optimistic as that is the most balanced way to view what might be happening.
If it is panning out like that it will be very good news, obviously.
But scientists are cautious and most will wait for finalised data to be sure,
But they will be just as hopeful this is for real and will be sustained.
Only time will tell.
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