Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

Some data here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/

So overall death or serious illness rate between 0.7 and 0.9%. Presumably across the pandemic.

Which is well below what we were thinking 18 months ago - around 2 - 3% as I recall.

Suggesting a drop of about 75%.

Though that will be impacted by half that period being pre vaccine.

So post vaccine it will be an even bigger fall one presumes.

The majority of UK deaths occurred in the first 10 months of the pandemic during our two big waves in Spring 2020 and Winter 2020/21. So it will presumably be true in Israel too

 

[Gabriel]

What is the Covid death rate in Israel - does anyone know? The cases are just a number. But the percentage who die and/or go into hospital is what from now on matters as to how we react.

As they only used Pfizer it would be interesting to see how it compares with the UK numbers where two vaccines were used fairly equally.

You’ll see more general Israeli data at the foot of this article, but the more specific data you’re seeking tends to follow a week or so later.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-...on-kids-return-to-school-despite-covid-surge/

 

[grunge]

So overall death or serious illness rate between 0.7 and 0.9%. Presumably across the pandemic.

Which is well below what we were thinking 18 months ago - around 2 - 3% as I recall.

Suggesting a drop of about 75%.

Though that will be impacted by half that period being pre vaccine.

So post vaccine it will be an even bigger fall one presumes.

The majority of UK deaths occurred in the first 10 months of the pandemic during our two big waves in Spring 2020 and Winter 2020/21. So it will presumably be true in Israel too

this one has Hospitalisations/Number in hospital/CFR etc on it by date.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

UK for example had a CFA of 3.11% in Feburary. thats now at 0.35%.

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

NOT SURE THIS IS TWO DAYS AS WE ARE ASSUMING AS THE DASHBOARD JUST SAYS DATA UP TO 9.00 am YESTERDAY - WHICH MISSES MOST OF TUESDAY.

BUT THE HIGH TEST NUMBERS INFER IT IS A FAIRLY NORMAL NUMBER FOR ONE DAY

AS A RESULT I AM POSTING THE COMARISON WITH MONDAY DATA ONLY LAST WEEK - BUT WILL ADD IN BRACKETS THE COMBINED MONDAY & TUESDAY DATA IF IT IS THAT


5 deaths - was 4 last week (still 4 if 48 hrs)


3328 cases - was 1705 cases last week (or 3098 if 48 hours)

12.6% positivity - was 13.5% last week - the positivity makes most sense if two days

242 patients (5 days old data still!) - was 211 last week

40 ventilated (again 5 days old) - was 31 last week.

 

[Healdplace]

this one has Hospitalisations/Number in hospital/CFR etc on it by date.

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

ourworldindata.org

UK for example had a CFA of 3.11% in Feburary. thats now at 0.35%.

If you create a comparative graph between UK and Israel on that set up above then it looks to my eyes as if Israel has suddenly tipped into problems it did not have before.

But I am far from being an expert on reading graphs so I hope someone who is will create that graph from the grunge link - as it allows you to compare anywhere with anywhere across the pandemic which is really helpful.

 

[mancity1]

So overall death or serious illness rate between 0.7 and 0.9%. Presumably across the pandemic.

Which is well below what we were thinking 18 months ago - around 2 - 3% as I recall.

Suggesting a drop of about 75%.

Though that will be impacted by half that period being pre vaccine.

So post vaccine it will be an even bigger fall one presumes.

The majority of UK deaths occurred in the first 10 months of the pandemic during our two big waves in Spring 2020 and Winter 2020/21. So it will presumably be true in Israel too

In Australia the death rate was around 3 per cent in the first two waves basically because we didn't keep the virus out of nursing homes in Victoria ( 640 of the 820 deaths ) with average age of 86.

in the delta wave with hard lockdowns in Sydney and Melbourne the case numbers are 20k in Sydney 910 in hospital ( currently ) and 100 deaths since June 16 , in Melbourne 1200 cases in two waves since July 2021 , 2 deaths and currently 39 in hospital.

Case numbers and deaths in Melbourne will increase with the current lockdown until we peak around December some four weeks after when 80 per cent will be double vaxxed.

We have tragically not vaccinated many with the vaccine that served England well and have 4.8 million doses lying idle in warehouses in Melbourne all produced in Melbourne for a number of avoidable reasons largely political in the past 4 months which will cost lives and mean lockdowns and the mental and social and economic harm that lockdowns do to the otherwise healthy including suicide , education , job loss and suspension of cancer screening etc.

The death rate is around a tenth of the Alpha wave because its largely hitting the younger who are still largely unvaccinated and while the variant spreads quicker and to more people its not as virulent and treatments have improved and health services have ramped up since the introduction of the Alpha in March 2000.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

GOOD NEWS THOUGH IT MIGHT NOT LOOK IT :- WE AVOIDED TOPPING 200 - JUST!

RECALL THIS IS THE NORMAL VERY HIGH WEEKEND CATCH UP NUMBER FROM TUESDAYS - PLUS AN EXTRA DAY BECAUSE OF THE BANK HOLIDAY. SO IT WAS ALWAYS GOING TO BE UP ON LAST WEEK REGARDLESS

LAST TUESDAY (for the normal weekend catch up number) IT WAS 153 with 16 NW WORTH FACTORING INTO THE COMPARISON OF TODAY AS NORMAL WEDNESDAYS ARE USUALLY BELOW TUESDAYS DUE TO THE CATCH UP EFFECT THE DAY BEFORE SO LAST WEDNESDAY WOULD HAVE BEEN HIGHER IF IT HAD FOLLOWED A BANK HOLIDAY


TODAY 196 deaths - with 22 from North West.

Last week 108 with 27 NW & Week Before 64 with 5 North West

 

[Healdplace]

196 ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

By Region: East 8, London 31, Midlands 43, NE & Yorkshire 66, North West 22, South East 10, South West 16

Most 13 in Mid Yorkshire and 9 in Birmingham hospital trusts.



NW Trusts: Chester 3, East Lancs 2, Mid Cheshire 1, Manchester 2, Pennine Acute 2, Salford 3, St Helens 1, Stockport 2, Wirral 2, Wigan 4


By age: 20 - 39 (5), 40 - 59 (22), 60 - 79 (77), 80 PLUS (92)


Deaths per week are still rising but NOT accelerating.

Last three weeks totals at 7 days have been 364 - 390 & 448.

The next week completes tomorrow and with 6 days it stands at 423.

The day behind it at 6 days is on 63 - so 486 is the minimum.

It will likely top 500 tomorrow but the increase is nothing like as fast or as bad as it has been in past waves.

Indeed there are hints of the numbers flattening off.

AUG 24 currently stands on 83 deaths as the highest single day for England deaths in this wave.

The last time there was a higher number was 94 on MAR 11.

 

[Gumzy97]

Just had a test done.

Came back home yesterday was fine didn’t feel ill had no symptoms. then in the night had a couple of symptoms, sore throat, cough. Then woke up today with blocked nose. Been double vaccinated. Hopefully negative. Get my result back tomorrow.

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

Still not looking good here though hints of cases at least not going up much more or even flattening

9 deaths - was 5 last week

6170 cases - was 5021 last week

11.5% positivity - was 11.0% last week. The flattening of this is the best sign of hope.

629 patients - up 44 on yesterday - was 396 last week

59 ventilated icu - up 5 on yesterday - was 44 last week


Hospital data still climbing quite a bit but it is feeding into the high point of cases from last week or so and MIGHT hopefully start to slow in next week or two. Hopefully below 1000 patients and 100 on ventilator beds