Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ayrshire_blue said:
It's not that far off?

Plus, I tend to appreciate it because there is no agenda in his modelling, and he self admits a lot of uncertainty with several different factors. There's no point in taking it as gospel, but it's as good of range of projections we're likely to get anywhere meantime.
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Andrew Lilico’s modelling has been by far the best this year.

But he’s an economist for the Telegraph so he doesn’t get anywhere near as much spread around twitter as his modelling accuracy should.
 
WALES DATA

5 deaths - was 6 last week

2467 cases - was 2391 last week

10.0% positivity - was 11.1% last week - a lot more tests being done hence the fall

428 patients (yesterday) - was 331 last week

49 ventilated icu (yesterday) - was 47 last week
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

SADLY A BIT OF AN UPTICK TO REPORT TODAY - HOPEFULLY A ONE OFF BUT SEVERAL NEW RECORDS SET SINCE LAST WINTER - BUT NO REAL OLDER CATCH UP. MOST OF THESE DEATHS - 89 OF THEM IN FACT - ARE DATED FROM OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS. EASILY THE MOST IN SUCH A TIME SPAN LATELY - LAST WEEK THE EQUIVALENT THREE DAYS ADDED JUST 41


118 with 12 North West - Last Week 77 with 3 North West - Week Before 80 with 22 North West

By Region:- East 10, London 15, Midlands 31, NE & Yorkshire 19, North West 12, South East 15, South West 16 - The only good news there is NW is the second lowest today.

Most by trust :- 7 Barts London, 6 each in Kettering & Leicester

NW trusts: - 3 Warrington, 2 Bolton and 1 each in Blackpool, Manchester, Mid Cheshire, Pennine Acute, Southport, Tameside and Wirral,


By age:- 20 - 39 (2), 40 - 59 (17), 60 - 79 (46), 80 PLUS (53)

SEP 3 is now the first England hospital day with over 100 deaths. On 103.

The first time in three figures and highest since MAR 8

SEP 5 at five days is on 89 - That is up from 69 on the number for the date 7 days before and 60 on 7 days before that and 57 on 7 days before that - showing the sudden rise in past few days in the data.

SEP 6 is already at 80 after just 4 days. And SEP 7 is at 79 after just 3 days - both also new highs for 6 months,

SEP 9 (yesterday) added 21 in the first 24 hours. This is the highest first day number in England since 28 added on MAR 5.
 
Latest ONS Covid prevalance data (only up to wk ending 3 SEP so no school impact in England yet)

England stays at 1 in 70 - flat - for third week. The highest it ever was (in mid January) was 1 in 50.

Wales has increased from 1 in 110 last week to above England at 1 in 65 - the highest here since just before Christmas 2020.

Northern Ireland is higher still at 1 in 60 - though that is slightly better than it was.

Scotland - however - has the worst numbers in the UK - at 1 in 45 - up from 1 in 75 the week before.

This number is the highest Scotland has ever recorded,
 
Del_Bosque said:
Andrew Lilico’s modelling has been by far the best this year.

But he’s an economist for the Telegraph so he doesn’t get anywhere near as much spread around twitter as his modelling accuracy should.
Click to expand...

Lilico is a strange one. Usually read his stuff with interest but don't always agree - an intelligent man who at times comes out with outrageous stuff. His covid opinions have been generally positive throughout - or at least since I've been following him, and I don't agree with dismissing his views but I also don't always agree with him either. Perhaps over optimistic from reality at times?

It's like Karl Sikora - used to come out with some absolute garbage, but on occasion would say something bang on however people would dismiss it anyway because it came from Sikora.
 
Regionally the ONS data (a week old recall) says that the North East was the worst region in England at 1 in 45 which had risen week to week.

The best was the North West which had fallen for the third week running.

Most regions are flat but the South West is the one area that has significantly risen over the past month.
 
That 1 in 10 number Roubaix just posted is no surprise given the numbers daily in Northern Ireland.

4200 in the past week testing positive were 19 and under versus 2586 over 20 and 2223 over 40 and 1194 aged over 60. Just 286 of those 1194 over 80.

This is why high cases are not translating into a big healthcare problem. Because that distribution skewed differently in the Winter wave. And the vaccines help the most those who were most at risk.
 
Last edited:
In response to the debate on booster jabs in the UK v use surplus vaccines where most needed elsewhere.

UK spokesman for the PM has just stated it will supply 30 million vaccine doses to the developing nations before 31 December.

And 100 million in total into next year.

Boosters here will not impact that promise.
 
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