Coronavirus (2021) thread

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artfuldodger said:
Anecdotal, but my sister who is a care worker and was vaccinated very early on (early Feb) has tested positive and is quite ill. 4 of her colleagues in the same home have also tested positive but aren't ill. You do wonder whether those who were vaccinated early need boosters sooner rather than later.
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The plan announced is to do it at 6 months on from their second dose (I think they meant that) as that is regarded as the optimum point. So the first will be those who had a second dose by March. Did you mean her first dose in February as that was 2 months into the first dose programme. I had my first dose in February and was nowhere near the top of the list. My second was in April so will not be before mid October anyone who had their first at the start of February would qualify on the plans announced today.

If they meant six months on from the first dose a lot of people are already over 6 months.
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
Yet when you read quantitative analysis of the benefits, it seems whole factors higher than the risk. So what, specifically, does the JCVI mean by "marginal", in quantitative terms?

They don't tell us.

Yet pretty much every other agency reaches the opposite conclusion.
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Edge case, only just benefiting from taking the medication.
30 deaths as opposed to 330 over a year. 300 additional deaths - a drop in the ocean of a population cohort of 3,219,034 souls
Or a drop of 0.00931956617% in mortality
Remember mental health, education etc are not included on the JCVI decision. Hence the JCVI referral to the CMOs to consider other health benefits.
 
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA


ADMISSIONS - THESE ARE FROM SUNDAY REMEMBER (48 hours old)



LAST SUN // THIS SUNDAY

691 // 658

So DOWN week to week by 33 SUN TO SUN.


By regions (LAST SUNDAY V THIS SUNDAY) :-


LONDON 100 V 91 - Down a bit week to week

MIDLANDS 124 V 133 - UP week to week

NE & YORKSHIRE 158 V 140 - Yorkshire also down but highest on both dates.



AND

NORTH WEST 109 V 91 - Good wk to wk fall


So NW admitted the least of the four big regions again and down week to week.

BUT NW admissions for Monday will be different tomorrow I suspect
 
roubaixtuesday said:
It's great news.

But given that no-one understands the reasons behind it well, it's definitely far too soon to declare it's endemic.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst IMO.
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Antibody levels continuing to rise is a good shout I would guess. Delta reduces the effectiveness of older antibodies but antibody levels keep rising. It will result in a fall in cases eventually.
 
Healdplace said:
I thought herd immunity for Covid was now accepted as a non starter because people are catching it multiple times via the ever changing variants.

Has that thinking changed lately?
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Depends what you mean by "herd immunity", a much abused phrase.

Certainly the more people previously exposed, the less transmission there will be, all things being equal.

For the reasons you state, plus waning immunity over time, herd immunity as meant by total suppression of the virus over a long time is almost certainly out of reach.

Flu or measles might be somewhere close to where we end up - an ongoing threat but controlled to acceptable levels through vaccination.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA



PATIENTS

THIS DATA IS FOR TODAY

6344

DOWN 80 FROM 6424



Last week the equivalent numbers were

DOWN 131 FROM 6375 TO 6244


WEEKLY RISE TUE TO TUE 6244 - 6344

A RISE OF 100



LAST WEEK THERE WAS A WEEKLY FALL FROM 6293 TO 6244 - A FALL OF 49



The numbers are pretty flat as you can see.





BY REGIONS

Last Tuesday V Today - Up/down today & over week


LONDON 1211 V 1276 - UP 23 TODAY & 65 WK TO WK

MIDLANDS 1145 V 1296 - DOWN 8 TODAY & UP 151 WK TO WK

NE & YORKSHIRE 1173 V 1201 - DOWN 20 TODAY & UP UP 28 WK TO WK


AND


NORTH WEST 967 V 933 / - DOWN 40 TODAY & DOWN 34 WK TO WK


MIDLANDS STRUGGLING

NORTH WEST MUCH BETTER DAY.



The other smaller regions week to week to today

East down from 547 to 545 today (DOWN 5 today)

South East down from 697 to 602 today (DOWN 6 TODAY) - Big weekly fall here

And South West down from 489 to 491 today (DOWN 24 TODAY)
 
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