Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Churchlawtonblue said:
Sage scientists predicting 2000 to 7000 hospitalisations a day in England next month. Based on what exactly? case numbers are starting to fall in England slightly. Where is the reasoning for these figures??
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Listening to the news it seems to be covid and seasonal flu cases together which is what they are talking about when mentioning the large hospitalisation figures. There does seem to be some concern re flu this year as there were very few cases last year or in other parts of the world on which to base this years vaccine.
 
Kompany Car said:
Listening to the news it seems to be covid and seasonal flu cases together which is what they are talking about when mentioning the large hospitalisation figures. There does seem to be some concern re flu this year as there were very few cases last year or in other parts of the world on which to base this years vaccine.
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Ok fair enough, But that is not what the BBC news website is saying. Its clearly just being reported as covid on there this morning.

There could be a large jump in the number of Covid hospital admissions in England if restrictions are not tightened, government scientists say.
The Sage committee said its modelling suggested hospitalisations could reach 2,000 to 7,000 per day next month - currently there are just over 750.

The BBC news journalist and editors cant even get the current hospital admission figures right. The 750 figure is wrong, the last three days for which data is available is 658, 649 and 680.
 
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Churchlawtonblue said:
Ok fair enough, But that is not what the BBC news website is saying. Its clearly just being reported as covid on there this morning.

There could be a large jump in the number of Covid hospital admissions in England if restrictions are not tightened, government scientists say.
The Sage committee said its modelling suggested hospitalisations could reach 2,000 to 7,000 per day next month - currently there are just over 750.
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Yeh winter will bring more covid.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Let's see how shit the latest SAGE modelling is...
BBC News - Covid: England could see big wave of hospitalisations, warn advisers
www.bbc.co.uk

Covid: Plan B would be triggered by NHS pressure, Sajid Javid says

Government scientists are warning of a jump in Covid hospital admissions if rules are not tightened soon.
www.bbc.co.uk
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Incidently, what warm weather are they on about? Mostly 16-22⁰C over the last 2¹½ months due to being north of the Jet Stream. That is a cool summer.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
There is a Government dashboard that catches this type of information but it’s isn’t in the main briefings, I understand. I heard on the BBC last night that about 300 of the 140,000 plus people who have died had been double jabbed. They were mainly people in their 80s with co-morbidities.
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It really should be front and centre of Government information.
Instead we get a rapper, Nicki Minaj, claiming she's been dissed by Chris Whitty.
Well love, if you do talk shidt expect to be "dissed" is all I can say.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
I have to agree, these people advising the government need to explain and justify their predictions, as such a lot depends on them.
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They do. Every time. Note:

SPI-M-O deems the scenario where R = 2.0 (red) to be an extreme trajectory for the epidemic over the next few weeks; it is a possible outcome, but highly unlikely.

 
roubaixtuesday said:
They do. Every time. Note:

SPI-M-O deems the scenario where R = 2.0 (red) to be an extreme trajectory for the epidemic over the next few weeks; it is a possible outcome, but highly unlikely.

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Thanks Roubaix. However I note that despite being only a week old, the modelling predictions already look out of date and way too pessimistic. Hospital admissions the past week, past few days have fallen in England, correct? Yet on Page 5 of 7 even their most optimistic prediction of R1 in green shows hospitalisations going up to 2000 a day. Lets be honest here they haven't really got much more of an idea than those that follow this virus and understand it the most on this forum. Like your good self, healdplace and others.
 
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