Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Chris Whitty's slide that all antivaxers need to see when they start talking bollocks.

I honestly couldn’t give a fuck about anti-vaxxers dying. I mean I’m not doing a little dance and revelling in it, but sympathy for death caused by stupidity is very, very, very low on my list of things to care about.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Been told this new varient you can have a bad dose of the shits for days anything like that mate

Got a reference for that claim?

 

[Healdplace]

Thats a hell of a lot of patients in Scotland for a country with a 1/10th the population of England.

Scotland has had the biggest problems for weeks now. Why Nicola Sturgeon has imposed the toughest measures. But they have slowly been coming under control and are falling it would seem now.

 

[Healdplace]

I would suggest a significant multiplier could be added to that. London was ravaged with it at the start (Feb/Mar 2020). If around 300 people in just one London borough (Barnet) died over a 3-day period in early April 2020, an awful lot of people would have had the virus. Not just in Barnet but across the capital. It is likely the virus was running rampant while millions were still using the tube.

London and North West as the two big urban connurbations with millions of people living close together were ripe for a highly infectious disease. Whilst what you say about London is true it is often forgotten (down soutrh anyway) that the NW has been in and out of waves almost constantly for 18 months. In lockdown longer than anywhere. Much of last Summer for instance.

Yes, more cases than were caught will have happened everywhere last year when our testing was stuttering. It is why herd immunity quickly became realised as unlikely to happen with Covid as vaccinations plus all the ones who have had it would have equalled that by now were it not for multiple variants and the ability to catch it repeatedly.

Though the hope is your body retains immunity from each and so the mortality rate will tumble even if the cases do not. Due to vaccines and people gaining some natural protection.

Another issue is Manchester and Salford - Manchester especially - hve some of the worst vaccination stats in the UK.

Manchester is miles behind the rest of GM even and even the best in GM (Stockport) is below other parts of the North West. I often in the Zoe data link Stockport with neighbour borough (not in GM) -Cheshire East - and say the latter is almost always tracking Stockport but below it. One reason is that it has a better vaccination rate than Stockport even though Stockport borders it and Stockport is easily the best in GM.

So many things appear to be happening to create what we see - though the next variant can come from anywhere and change things in unknown ways.

That is the big threat with Covid as it is an unknown and will exist for years to come as we are not yet engaging very fast in why it is really true that nobody is safe until the world is safe and most of the world right now is nowhere near as safe as the UK and will take much more selflessness from the rich nations to get them there.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP NEWS

TODAY'S UPDATE


The fall did not last long sadly.

Predicted cases are back UP after falling by 1404 yesterday.

Today FROM 45, 889 TO 46, 154 TODAY - a RISE of 265 - After past RISES of 16, 283 and 379 over the 3 days before yesterdays fall.

It WAS 47, 680 last Saturday - a FALL in the week of 1526.


Ongoing symptomatic cases also FALL for eleventh day running.

But by a much smaller number than yesterday.


FROM 680, 992 TODAY to 679, 600 - A fall of just 1392 after falls of 5951,4129, 4595. 4710, 6108, 9353 & 7567 in previous days. So easily the least in past week. Matching the cases rise.

IT WAS 715, 838 last Saturday. A weekly fall of 36, 238 - well down from a fall of 42, 413 yesterday.

You would expect a lag to the change in ongoing cases after a rise or fall in daily case numbers.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA

TODAYS DATA

REGIONS:-




North West UP TO 742 / 974 FROM 724 / 947 - STILL FIFTH of the 12 regions.




WALES stay top but FALL. Scotland fall more and now DOWN to fourth.

North East falls well taking it now into third place in UK.

DOWN 696 / 1097 FROM 738 / 1140

Yorkshire moves up two places into second after a bit of a rise.

East Midlands in sixth just below NW the only other in the middle watch zone.

UP TO 663 / 918 FROM 642 / 890



South West (which has been plummeting day by day in the real cases all week - as the regional data each evening on here shows- is still the LOWEST region ahead of London

BUT UP A LITTLE FROM 425 / 573 TO 438 / 591

ENOUGH TO TAKE SW OUT OF THE LOWEST WATCH ZONE INTO THE NEXT LOWEST WITH THE OTHER SOUTHERN REGIONS



LONDON slightly DOWN on 482 / 632 FROM 488 / 636 but SOUTH EAST has fallen below it too.



West Midlands is DOWN on 485 / 707 FROM 503 / 724 , South East DOWN on 485 / 602 FROM 491 / 606 and East UP slightly on 496 / 658 FROM 495 / 653 .

THE SOUTHERN REGIONS AS IN THE REAL CASE DATA MOSTLY FALLING ON ZOE.



UP TOP:-

WALES DOWN FROM 839 / 1173 TO 827 / 1166

Yorkshire up to second UP on 767 / 1038 FROM 744 / 1009

North East third as noted above but falling well.

Scotland (4th) DOWN too on 732 / 997 FROM 753 / 1018


N Ireland also UP quite a lot today on 369 / 1186 FROM 300/ 1040

 

[SWP's back]

Lovely stuff



Weirdly and coincidentally I actually saw them today on Alabama Pickers for the first time as I was flicking about on my satellite package. We’ve not lost the cream of the human crop based on my ten minutes viewing.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA


TODAY


GREATER MANCHESTER:-

THE PATTERN HAS REMAINED WITH ZOE MATCHING REAL DATA - ALMOST EVERYONE FALLING A BIT.

IF THAT PROVES TRUE TODAY IT IS PRETTY BAD NEWS FOR STOCKPORT AS ZOE SHOWS IT SHOOTING UP TODAY AND NOW EASILY WORST IN GM BY SOME MARGIN & THE ONLY ONE LEFT IN THE UPPER WATCH ZONE...... I GUESS WE WILL SEE!



Stockport is now first and well UP today and the last in the upper watch zone.On 13, 727 FROM 10, 708


FOR FIRST TIME IN WEEKS EVERY OTHER GM BOROUGH BAR STOCKPORT IS NOW BELOW THE 10K HIGHER WATCH ZONE WHEN MOST OF GM WAS LAST WEEK.


Rochdale in second - bizarely given its low scoring and best Pop in GM. Maybe ZOE are wrong today. I guess we will see. But they have Rochdale UP on 9841 FROM 8642

Oldham is third but DOWN on 7903 FROM 9091

Manchester is fourth DOWN big on 7631 FROM 11, 212

Trafford is fifth but UP on 6929 FROM 6389

Tameside in sixth place and also UP a little on 6813 FROM 6396

Wigan in seventh up slightly on 6300 FROM 6199

Bury is eighth and still falling like a brick. DOWN on 6142 FROM 8372.

Salford in ninth is another dropping fast DOWN on its lowest in ages on 3972 FROM 4601


BUT BEST IN GM IS STILL - though UP today so it is close:-


Bolton on 3243 FROM 1949







REST OF NORTH WEST




St Helens is well DOWN on 31, 451 FROM 39, 879.


Liverpool is still going UP and easily now above all 10 GM boroughs including Stockport - on on 22, 363 FROM 18, 595

Sefton also up on 16, 566 FROM 15, 302



So Merseyside not GM is the real problem in the North West according to Zoe.


However, Warrington is down slightly on 12, 365



Chorley is down but high on 13, 855

The Wyre coast (Fleetwood) is UP on 14, 251


LAKE DISTRICT NORTH UP ON 27.257 AND LANCASTER AND MORECAMBE - WHICH HAS ROCKETED FAST UP TO ONE OF THE HIGHEST IN ENGLAND ON 27, 253 ALMOST IDENTICAL SCORES

ONLY ST HELENS IS HIGHER

BUT ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS:-

Cheshire East has followed Stockport again but risen fast into the higher watch zone to be on 14, 107 UP from 10, 404 and actually ABOVE Stockport which is very unusual,

Moreover Chester and Cheshire West is DOWN again on 14, 494 - so the parts of Cheshire are very closely aligned and the nearest in numbers they have been in weeks.

 

[Healdplace]

SCOTLAND DATA

THEY DO SAY THE DATA ISSUES ARE STILL CAUSING NUMBERS TO BE A BIT SUSPECT FOR A FEW DAYS

BUT THE NUMBERS BELOW ARE NOT AS HOPEFUL AS THEY WERE


27 deaths - was 10 last week - big jump here recently as cases from past weeks become deaths

6116 cases - waa 4298 last week

BUT 9.0% positivity - was 10.4% last week shows the anomaly in action - a LOT more tests accumulated over a few days presumably = these cases

BUT THE HOSPITAL DATA HAS REVERSED TOO AND THAT CANNOT BE SO EASILY EXPLAINED

1052 patients - up 15 on yesterday & from 985 last week

99 ventilated icu - up 12 on yesterday - huge rise here - was 83 last week


VERY HARD TO CALL SCOTLAND RIGHT NOW AS AYRSHIRE ASTUTELY NOTED LAST NIGHT

 

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

6 deaths - was 3 last week

1072 cases - was 1424 last week

ALL WE GET AT WEEKENDS BUT THIS IS STILL A HOPEFUL TREND