Coronavirus (2021) thread

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BerkshireBlue said:
I get paid for my opinion on what my best guess of what's going to happen
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The point is NOT to predict the outcome. The lack of predictability in the first paragraph of the report. Read it.

The nature of epidemics, as surely must be painfully obvious to everyone now, is that exponential growth can cause rapid and huge changes from small differences in conditions.

In other words, it's not rocket science.

Anyone who pretends the exact trajectory of the epidemic is currently predictable is a charlatan.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER SCOREBOARD


TOTAL CASES 1108 - DOWN 98 FROM YESTERDAY.

NORTH WEST DOWN 183 TO 3519 OVER PAR FOR GM WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR A FALL.


VERSUS LAST WEEK GM WAS THEN 1094 - SO UP 14.

NORTH WEST ROSE BY 400 WEEK TO WEEK FROM 3119.

THIS IS A VERY SMALL PART OF THE RISE IN GM SO VERY GOOD NEWS


STOCKPORT 179 - DOWN 17 on day & UP 8 wk to wk. Slightly better day here but third time on the run and fourth in the week more cases than Manchester to top the tree. Never happened before. Pop Score up 61 today. But not the worst today.LOSING 14 more points though to Trafford to increase their lead as lowest in GM across the pandemic to 40 . Sadly no sign of a serious turnaround here yet. But a start. POP SCORE 12, 805


TAMESIDE 160 - UP 25 on day & UP 55 wk to wk - Another bad day here and worse than Stockport. Pop Score up 70. Most in GM in some time. POP SCORE 14, 140

WIGAN 139 - DOWN 4 on day & UP 3 wk to wk. Pop score up 42 today - POP SCORE 14, 820

MANCHESTER 132 - DOWN 37 on day & DOWN 25 wk to wk. Manchester Pop Score up 24 - best in GM today. POP SCORE 15, 729

TRAFFORD 114 - DOWN 16 on day & UP 11 Wk to wk - Pop Score up by 47 points today. Good enough to increase overall Pop Score across the pandemic from Stockport to 40. POP SCORE OF 12, 765

SALFORD 100 - DOWN 3 on day & UP 19 wk to wk. Pop Score up 38. POP SCORE 15, 490

BOLTON 79 - DOWN 36 on day & DOWN 9 wk to wk - Bolton Pop Score up 28 . POP SCORE 14, 982

OLDHAM 75 - DOWN 19 on day & DOWN 21 Wk to Wk. Pop Score up 32 and now 123 ahead of Manchester for highest overall GM pop score . POP SCORE 15, 852

ROCHDALE 75 - UP 29 on day & DOWN 17 wk to wk. Pop Score up 33. POP SCORE 15, 239

BURY 55 - DOWN 20 on day & DOWN 10 wk to wk Pop score here up 29 POP SCORE 14, 649
 
roubaixtuesday said:
You're not even remotely interested in understanding.

You just want a cheap gotcha to confirm your prejudices.
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You are clearly a clever person Roubiaxtuesday, with no doubt a better knowledge of virology and covid than myself and i have enjoyed reading your informative posts through out this pandemic.


That said im not that stupid myself, Ive got a science degree and can understand modelling graphs and especially basic graphs representing scenarios that all show increases in hospitalisations.

Sometimes I find its best to swallow your pride and admit your wrong. Advice you would do well to follow, rather than try and belittle somsone with silly labels. I thought you were better than that. Have a good evening.
 
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GM boroughs weekly past 7 day case totals:

Bury 475, Rochdale 501, Oldham 650, Bolton 673, Salford 708, Trafford 832, Tameside 888, Wigan 907, Stockport 1128, Manchester 1178

At the right end of the table Bury and Rochdale clear. But most places were up today.

At the wrong end of the table Manchester fell again and gets VERY near Stockport today which rose again but only by 8. So the gap is now just 50 from over 1000 10 days ago and Stockport is in the worst place numbers wise it has ever been right now.

Could easily go ahead of Manchester for the first time ever tomorrow. The media might even see what is happening then but beginning to doubt it given their silence for so long since this problem started. The issue is not really the 1128 of Stockport. Not a very high score for the top in GM. But the remarkably low scoring of Manchester which given its vaccination numbers is doing unexpectedly well right now.
 
GM WEEKLY POP SCORES

Remember low scores good - going down good - high scores bad - going up bad


BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // POP SCORE LAST WEEK // UP OR DOWN BY LAST 7 DAYS

Also WAS 4 weeks ago (up/down in past month)


MANCHESTER 212 // 268 //DOWN 56 WAS 329 (down 117)

ROCHDALE 223 // 283 // DOWN 60 WAS 258 (down 35 )

BOLTON 250 // 265 // DOWN 31 WAS 212 (up 22 )

BURY 255 // 280 // DOWN 25 WAS 260 (down 5)

SALFORD 263 // 294 // DOWN 31 WAS 404 (down 141)

WIGAN 274 // 326 // DOWN 52 WAS 277 (down 3)

OLDHAM 274 // 332 // DOWN 58 WAS 286 (down 12)

TRAFFORD 350 // 299 // UP 51 WAS 384 (down 34)

STOCKPORT 384 // 373 // UP 11 WAS 350 (up 34 )

TAMESIDE 391 // 382 // UP 9 WAS 381 (up 10)


Manchester was down and improved its lead. Most other places rose today.

Tameside had the worst day today and Stockport improved enough to fall behind its neighbour despite going up too. Trafford is getting sucked into these top three with a gap back to the rest, Indeed all three are now up week to weel and Trafford up by the most though from further back.

Stockport is still up the most month to month and only Tameside ad Bolton are up over that period too. Both by less than Stockport.

Salford has been by far the best performwe over the past month falling lots. But Manchester is over 100 better off too. They have both had very good spells over the past 4 weeks.
 
According to the BBC news just now - 7731 are in hospital in the UK (quote) 'according to the latest data'.

Except the actual latest data - as in posted on here 5 hours ago - is easy to access from the records if you have a journalist who bothers to look for it and if they can add up 4 numbers. It has been out there since this afternoon.

Which it seems nobody at the BBC can be bothered to do.

THIS is why I started looking up the numbers and posting it here because what our national broadcaster funded by the taxpayer says is the latest often is no such thing.

Here they are Beeb for free for your next bulletin - they are quite a bit lower than you told the nation so I am sure you will want to cheer them up:-


ENGLAND 5543 SCOTLAND 1107 NORTHERN IRELAND 384 WALES 532

UK TOTAL 7566
 
malg said:
I work in the NHS and it is certainly not what it was. For the NHS the biggest challenge now is for GPs to start seeing patients again.
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I've really struggled to get a face-to-face appointment for my Dad, who has (early) Alzheimer's and will struggle with the phone call he's been offered. He hasn't seen his GP for 2 years, similar with Mum.

And they live in rural Cambridgeshire, much better served than most parts of the country with GP provision.

It's a crisis.
 
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