Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

if the Covid deaths only were reported I’ve a feeling the daily deaths would be much lower

Your feeling isn't supported by the facts, alas.

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA

TODAYS DATA

REGIONS:-



North West moves UP into FOURTH place but still in the second watch zone. But VERY close now to going into the upper watch zone after its biggest rise in some time today

NORTH WEST UP to 852 / 1127 FROM 787 / 1050

UP TOP:-

THERE ARE THREE IN THE HIGHEST WATCH ZONE BUT LOOKING LIKE MAYBE FOUR TOMORROW


WALES STILL FIRST UP again on 1067 / 1479 FROM 1034 / 1440

Northern Ireland stays second - but edges UP on 585 / 1630 FROM 579 / 1613

Yorkshire in third is UP again today. On 887 / 1206 FROM 872 / 1188


BUT WORRYINGLY THE NW RISE IS MUCH BIGGER THAN ALL OF THE ABOVE


The next four are are in the next lower watch zone - headed by NORTH WEST in fourth - JUST,

NORTH EAST is UP to fifth with another big rise to 745 / 1206 FROM 680 / 1121

East Midlands is sixth and East Midlands is UP again today on 778 / 1083 FROM 754 / 1052.

And SCOTLAND in seventh make up the lowest of the four in this second tier BUT also UP big today - on 734 / 1032 FROM 684 / 970



THE LOWER WATCH ZONE CONTAINS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN REGIONS AND THE WEST MIDLANDS - THE GEOGRAPHICAL SPLIT NORTH/SOUTH APPARENT IN THE REAL CASE DATA EVERY DAY IS TRUE ON ZOE TOO - THOUGH MOST PLACES ARE EDGING UP ON ZOE EVEN HERE


West MIdlands is also UP big on 612 / 881 FROM 556 / 813

AT THE BOTTOM (AS IN BEST IN UK) ARE THE SOUTHERN REGIONS:-


South West is now BEST in the UK again - but UP on 485 / 661 FROM 458 / 627

South East next lowest is UP big too on 540 / 673 FROM 498 / 625

LONDON is next but UP a bit again on 566 / 747 FROM 542 / 718

East is next UP on 582 / 773 FROM 559 / 745


So all the southern regions some way back of the rest of the UK but UP

NOT REALLY ANY GOOD NEWS IN THESE NUMBERS TODAY

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP DATA


TODAY


GREATER MANCHESTER:-

Rochdale moves UP and retains top spot - which seems absurd given its numbers in real life as the best in GM - but now in the higher watch zone on 13, 658 FROM 11, 920

Wigan rises to second on 11, 941 FROM 9707

Stockport stays third but edges UP on 11, 040 FROM 10, 751 - but stays very flat for a week with scores all between 10, 701 and 11 ,190 across the past week.

Tameside is fourth also UP - on 10, 923 FROM 9283- neck and neck with Stockport which looks more right than usual here

Bury edges DOWN into fifth on 10, 894 FROM 11, 195. Just 27 behind Tameside.


NOW ONLY HALF THE BOROUGHS LEFT IN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE BUT NOBODY IN THE UPPER ONE BAR ROCHDALE IN THERE BY MUCH.


Manchester is sixth flat too but up slightly on 9237 FROM 9188

Trafford is seventh also UP a little on 8378 FROM 7496

Oldham stays eighth also UP on 8349 FROM 7451

Bolton edges UP in ninth on 5603 FROM 5239


BUT STILL EASILY BEST IN GM AFTER WEEKS OF DAILY FALLS IN THE REAL DATA IS STILL :-


Salford - also UP again a littlw on 3491 FROM 3038





REST OF NORTH WEST




St Helens is DOWN slightly on 16, 084 FROM 19, 394.

Liverpool is DOWN too but still above all of GM on 16, 769 FROM 18, 403

Sefton slightly DOWN on 13. 709 but JUST still above all of GM

Warrington also DOWN slightly on 12, 542 FROM 13, 181



BUT THERE IS A NEW NORTH WEST HOT SPOT:- RIBBLE VALLEY is now way up into the 30Ks on 36, 684 - EASILY THE MOST IN THE REGION AND TRIPLE ANYWHERE IN GM



LAKE DISTRICT NORTH IS UP TOO ON 29, 216 FROM 28, 597 NOW THE SECOND HIGHEST IN THE NORTH WEST - WITH LANCASTER AND MORECAMBE UP slightly ON 18, 975



BUT THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN (sorry Andyhinch):-

Cheshire East which is really very surprisingly still above Stockport and UP TODAY to above its neighbour to the north.

UP to 14, 928 FROM 14, 150 - been consistently over Stockport for more than a week now.

Very unusual for Cheshire East to be still above all GM boroughs - BUT still Chester and Cheshire West is higher - UP again on 19, 813 FROM 19, 734

Cheshire is now the main problem in the south of the NW region above the Merseyside and surrounding boroughs that have been high for some weeks.

 

[bluemc1]

Your feeling isn't supported by the facts, alas.

View attachment 27080

Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard

GOV.UK Coronavirus dashboard

coronavirus.data.gov.uk

But ( sorry if I’ve misunderstood) doesn’t that mean the daily briefings are telling the public 406 people died of Covid each week that haven’t ?

also if you ask people how many have died from pandemic or if you ask google you are told 136k but that 136k includes those who’ve died within 28 days ?

 

[bluemc1]

Also having Covid 19 on your death certificate doesn’t mean you died of Covid I’m afraid

 

[Healdplace]

Also having Covid 19 on your death certificate doesn’t mean you died of Covid I’m afraid

I suspect many deaths were people who died of something else that Covid made worse enough to kill them. Those countries who record that fact will reveal the true cost of the Covid outbreak Those who care only about citing the lowest numbers possible to look better on some comparison web site will not.

In a pandemic the full story is usually more valuable to medicine and planning for the next one. But also politically less palatable to record.

Hence this - my country is better than yours argument - misses the point really. If someone died and they had covid it will most likely have been a factor. Knowing that tells us more than not knowing it even if it bumps you down some league table that anyone with sense knows is at best inaccurate.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

But ( sorry if I’ve misunderstood) doesn’t that mean the daily briefings are telling the public 406 people died of Covid each week that haven’t ?

also if you ask people how many have died from pandemic or if you ask google you are told 136k but that 136k includes those who’ve died within 28 days ?

Sorry, don't understand where your 406 comes from.

There are basically three ways to measure COVID deaths
(1) "within 28 days" - quick and dirty but includes people incidentally hit by a bus, and excludes people whose death is caused by COVID but live longer than 28 days.
(2) "On the death certificate" - probably most rigorous but takes a lot longer for the stats to come through
(3) "Excess deaths" - ignoring whether caused by COVID or not looks at how many more deaths overall there are than is normally the case

(2) is higher than (1): 158,664 compared to 136,138 according to that link to the ONS.

(3) is most often used for international comparisons and shows similar trends to the other measures.

There's loads of nuance in all of this, and I don't at all claim to understand all of it. But there doesn't seem to be any evidence whatever that the UK is somehow overcounting COVID deaths either relative to what doctors conclude on death certificate or by other means of international comparison. It's a red herring.

Much more here

Coronavirus and mortality in England and Wales methodology - Office for National Statistics

Quality and methodology information for deaths registered weekly and monthly in England and Wales data. Includes strengths and limitations, methods used, comparability with other sources, definitions and the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

www.ons.gov.uk

 

[Healdplace]

WALES DATA

THIS IS FOR BOTH SATURDAY & SUNDAY AS USUAL ON MONDAYS

LIMITED DATA RELEASED FOR SOME REASON

12 deaths - was 17 last week

5659 cases - was 5258 last week - STILL RISING HERE

 

[grunge]

Also having Covid 19 on your death certificate doesn’t mean you died of Covid I’m afraid

the WHO have a set of criteria for what is / isn’t a covid death. The number we publish is in line with that. In this case mentioned on certificate is “primary” cause.

 

[bluemc1]

Sorry, don't understand where your 406 comes from.

There are basically three ways to measure COVID deaths
(1) "within 28 days" - quick and dirty but includes people incidentally hit by a bus, and excludes people whose death is caused by COVID but live longer than 28 days.
(2) "On the death certificate" - probably most rigorous but takes a lot longer for the stats to come through
(3) "Excess deaths" - ignoring whether caused by COVID or not looks at how many more deaths overall there are than is normally the case

(2) is higher than (1): 158,664 compared to 136,138 according to that link to the ONS.

(3) is most often used for international comparisons and shows similar trends to the other measures.

There's loads of nuance in all of this, and I don't at all claim to understand all of it. But there doesn't seem to be any evidence whatever that the UK is somehow overcounting COVID deaths either relative to what doctors conclude on death certificate or by other means of international comparison. It's a red herring.

Much more here

Coronavirus and mortality in England and Wales methodology - Office for National Statistics

Quality and methodology information for deaths registered weekly and monthly in England and Wales data. Includes strengths and limitations, methods used, comparability with other sources, definitions and the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

www.ons.gov.uk

thanks I’ll have a look

the 406 was just the 58 daily deaths recorded as deaths within 28 days x 7