Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

ANOTHER PROMISING DAY HERE AFTER SEVERAL GOOD DAYS THIS WEEK SUGGESTING THIS WAVE HAS PEAKED - THOUGH THERE IS A LAG FROM CASES TO DEATHS AND CASES HAVE RISEN A LITTLE IN PAST WEEK OR SO IN ENGLAND

80 with 6 North West - Was 101 with 17 NW last week & 92 with 12 NW week before.

It is 5 weeks since there were FEWER deaths reported on a Friday.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS - MORE DETAIL

By Region:

East 3, London 20, Midlands 13, NE & Yorkshire 20, North West 6. South East 12, South West 6

Most in one trust 8 in Barking

NW Trusts:- 2 each in Manchester & Pennine and 1 each in Liverpool & Salford

By age:- 20 - 39 (4), 40 - 59 (9), 60 - 79 (30) , 80 PLUS (37)
 
ONS Study finds that rates of Covid are pretty flat having stayed around 1 in 70 to 1 in 80 in past three weeks.

BUT that the numbers in secondary school age children (11 - 16 or so) is at its highest level ever at near one in every 20 tested - happily most not getting sick enough to need serious healthcare

We must be quite rapidly giving the school population some degree of immunity from both vaccinations to the older kids and from the rest catching it off one another at high rates.

This will hopefully achieve the presumed aim of reducing spread in the winter when the risk of it being passed onto the more vulnerable family members is greater.
 
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ZOE APP NEWS

TODAY'S UPDATE

THE RISES CONTINUE SADLY - BUT A LTTLE REDUCED TODAY



Predicted cases are

UP TO 62, 185 FROM 60, 796 a rise of of 1389 after rises of 2670, 2416, 2118, 2658, 683, 2306 in the days before.

It WAS 47, 945 last week - a RISE week to week of 14, 240 after rises of 14, 496. 11, 826 and 9852 in past few days.

THIS IS NOW ALMOST THE HIGHEST IT HAS EVER BEEN.


Ongoing symptomatic cases UP too again-


FROM 726, 895 TO 744, 302 A RISE of 17 407 following rises of 18, 305, 38, 085 and 4204 and 2654 on previous days.


IT WAS 665, 763 last week. A weekly RISE of 61, 132 - still huge but like the above numbers down from yesterdays 67, 643 - but up from the previous day rises of 39, 338 after FALLS of 7794, 5392, 4562 in previous days.

CASES IN ENGLAND PARTICULARLY HAVE WELL AND TRULY SHIFTED DIRECTION NOW IN A RATHER SUDDEN MANNER OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS

THE SCHOOLS INCREASE IS NOW HITTING HARD IT SEEMS


There is always a lag to the change in ongoing cases after a rise or fall in daily case numbers as ongoing cases persist and are not just counted on the day of first report.
 
ZOE APP NEWS

TODAY'S UPDATE

THE RISES CONTINUE SADLY - BUT A LTTLE REDUCED TODAY



Predicted cases are

UP TO 62, 185 FROM 60, 796 a rise of of 1389 after rises of 2670, 2416, 2118, 2658, 683, 2306 in the days before.

It WAS 47, 945 last week - a RISE week to week of 14, 240 after rises of 14, 496. 11, 826 and 9852 in past few days.

THIS IS NOW ALMOST THE HIGHEST IT HAS EVER BEEN.


Ongoing symptomatic cases UP too again-


FROM 726, 895 TO 744, 302 A RISE of 17 407 following rises of 18, 305, 38, 085 and 4204 and 2654 on previous days.


IT WAS 665, 763 last week. A weekly RISE of 61, 132 - still huge but like the above numbers down from yesterdays 67, 643 - but up from the previous day rises of 39, 338 after FALLS of 7794, 5392, 4562 in previous days.

CASES IN ENGLAND PARTICULARLY HAVE WELL AND TRULY SHIFTED DIRECTION NOW IN A RATHER SUDDEN MANNER OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS

THE SCHOOLS INCREASE IS NOW HITTING HARD IT SEEMS


There is always a lag to the change in ongoing cases after a rise or fall in daily case numbers as ongoing cases persist and are not just counted on the day of first report.

Does Zoe take reports from u16s or is the implication this is spillover into adult population?
 
BBC North West reporting on what I have been reporting at last!

Mentioned Stockport going up and North Lancashire uissues (Barrow they cite as a concern) andof Merseyside falling.

Thank goodness some reporters are paying attention and finally spotted this. THough they are citing 5 day old data of course.

Also referred to the problems in East Cheshire with a 'signifcant'' spike - as I have been noting it has been well up on GM and even Stockport and that is unusual.

It has now caused issues in some hospitals in Cheshire.

For comparison they say Crewe now has a Pop Score of 700 and Sandbach of 800.

So Stockport at 526 is at least not up there (yet!)

They also reported on the fall but slow of the North West hospital patients and that the cases are not seeming to drive these up.

Also they note that the two age groups with high cases are school age ones that are by far the most AND the 40 - 49 year olds - which they speculate are the parents of the children now catching it.

Happy to see some good reporting on the data at least even if tucked away on local news at 1.30 pm.
 
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ZOE APP DATA

TODAYS DATA

REGIONS:-




North West Stays fourth in the upper watch zone and is UP again but its rise is well down on yesterday and one of the lowest in the UK


NORTH WEST UP to 964 / 1260 FROM 958 / 1254 AFTER GOING UP FROM 883 / 1165 YESTERDAY


UP TOP:-


THERE ARE SIX NOW IN THE HIGHEST WATCH ZONE


WALES STILL FIRST but DOWN a little on 1114 / 1544 FROM 1129 / 1561 - Still wll clear of the others in the upper watch zone

EAST MIDLANDS stll in second place and UP today on 994 / 1340 FROM 973 / 1315 .

THIS IS A LITTLE SLOWER RISE AND FITS THE SLIGHT FALL IN THE UK RISE IN ZOE TODAY


YORKSHIRE is in third and UP again slightly on 964 / 1302 FROM 958 / 1296

Indeed North West is as you see very close to Yorkshire but up almost identically with Yorkshire today.


NORTH EAST rises to fifth UP to 850 / 1347 FROM 837 / 1330

NORTHERN IRELAND stays in the upper watch zone but falls to sixth and is DOWN on 588 / 1664 FROM 607 / 1691


SO HOPE FOR A SLIGHTLY LESS BAD DAY IN GM AND NW TODAY




THERE ARE NOW NO REGIONS IN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE - ALL OF THE SOUTHERN REGIONS LEFT IN THERE ROSE UP ENOUGH TO JOIN THE ONES IN THE SECIOND WATCH ZONE.




WEST MIDLANDS stays seventh after another big rise - UP on 817 / 1132 FROM 767 / 1064 - very close to going into the upper zone now.


And SCOTLAND in eighth and is again DOWN today - on 678 / 968 FROM 687 / 983 AND 718 / 1015 - easily the best perfiormer right now matching its real cases fall after an earlier return to school presumably now having played out its worse rises.

Now UP there with them the the higher zone are:

SOUTH WEST UP in ninth (a week ago was the best but has been rising again) on 692 / 900 FROM 667 / 863 FROM AND 594 / 788 - IT WAS 401 / 522 less than two weeks ago.

LONDON is now tenth in UK but also UP big on 693 / 895 FROM 646 / 843

EAST moves up into tenth UP big too on 683 / 892 FROM 641 / 845

SOUTH EAST is now the best in UK but still rose enough to go into the middle watch zone leaving nobody in the lower one as South West did today BUT rising the least in the south UP on 679 / 832 FROM 671 / 823 .
 
ZOE APP DATA


TODAY

UNFORTUNATELY GREATER MANCHESTER STILL GOING UP AND HAS BECOME THE PROBLEM IN THE NORTH WEST AS MOST OF THE REST OF THE NORTH WEST WHICH WAS THE PROBLEM IS NOW FALLING DAILY.

LOOKS AS IF THE STOCKPORT PROBLEM HAS - AS ALMOST INEVITABLE - SPREAD FURTHER ACROSS GM. AND NO GOOD NEWS FOR STOCKPORT TODAY - NOW RISING FASTER THAN IT WAS.





GREATER MANCHESTER:-




Rochdale is back on top and one of the worst in the UK says Zoe - almost absurdly given its real case numbers below 100 now for over two weeks and easily the best in GM - on Zoe also UP big again on 20, 049 FROM 18,000

Wigan second - UP on 18, 235 FROM 17, 480 - these two are at the highest GM numbers in over 2 weeks.

Stockport third and UP again by over 1000 after being fairly flat now escalating a lot. 300 cases in Stockport may be a real possibility any day now. On 15, 739 FROM 14, 503 .

Trafford up to fourth and also UP for an entire week now and today by more than Stockport fitting yesterdays real case data as the rises spread on 14, 147 FROM 12, 522

Oldham moves up into fifth UP on 13, 820 FROM 11, 497

Tameside is sixth also UP but very slightly - on 13, 806 FROM 13, 768.

Bury edges DOWN slightly in seventh and amost fell out of the upper watch zone 10, 065 FROM 10, 861.



BUT NOW THREE BOROUGHSIN THE LOWER WATCH ZONE

Manchester is in eighth and DID drop out of 10 K higher watch zone - still doing relatively well DOWN on 9602 FROM 10, 142


Bolton edges UP too in ninth and may be the next to go above 10K sadly - UP to its highest in a few weeks on 9517 FROM 8564


HOWEVER, STILL EASILY BEST IN GM AFTER WEEKS OF DAILY FALLS AND THE ONLY ONE NOT SHOWING ANY HINT OF GOING NEAR 10K IS :-


Salford - again UP slightly on 3737 FROM 3657 - the last 17 numbers in Salford have ALL been in the 3000s - a low level very hard to explain given the way the rest of GM has been posting.







REST OF NORTH WEST




St Helens is DOWN again and in the lowest watch zone on 9943 FROM 9991 FROM 10, 537 - This was a HUGE driver of the NW numbers and way up in the 30Ks but has fallen steadily over past 10 days - halving numbers in a week - as GM has risen

AS HAVE MOST OF THE OTHERS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE NORTH WEST

Liverpool is DOWN too after days of falls and no longer above most of GM on 10, 510 FROM 11, 017 - it was above ALL of GM a week ago and in the 20Ks but is now below 6 of the 10 GM borough and like St Helens half where it was.

Sefton - though more slowly - going DOWN too on 11, 936 FROM 12, 678 - with over a week of straight falls like all those above.

Warrington also DOWN on 10, 176 FROM 10 , 351 - again after a week of straight falls.


THESE FALLS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ACROSS THIS WESTERN PART OF THE REGION JUST AS GM HAS STARTED TO MOVE UP TO JOIN STOCKPORT.

THIS IS WHY GM NUMBERS V NORTH WEST HAVE NOT BEEN GOOD IN PAST FEW DAYS.



THE NEW NORTH WEST HOT SPOT:- RIBBLE VALLEY IS ALSO HAPPILY NOW FALLING

DOWN ON 29, 133 FROM 33, 637 YESTERDAY AND 37K THREE DAYS AGO




HOWEVER - THE OTHER PROBLEM AREA - THAT TOO IS NOW FALLING

LAKE DISTRICT NORTH ON 29, 471 FROM 30, 253 - WITH LANCASTER AND MORECAMBE DOWN ON 18, 875



AS FOR THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN:-

Cheshire East is STILL well above Stockport as it has been for a week or two now.

UP to 19, 511 FROM 17, 841 - been consistently over Stockport for two weeks now. And Stockport is not sonewhere you want to be above these days.

AS WE NOW KNOW THE REASON IS MOSTLY IN THE SOUTH OF THE COUNTY SUCH AS CREWE. INDEED TODAY IT HAS GONE ABOVE THE WESTERN SIDE OF CHESHIRE WHICH IS STARTING TO FALL AND HAS BEEN FOR A FEW DAYS NOW

Chester and Cheshire West - like other western parts of the NW - now DOWN on 18, 009 behnd its eastern counterpart and the way Stockport is curremtly rising will be behind there too soon.
 
SCOTLAND DATA

GOOD NEWS HERE TOO

34 deaths - was 50 last week

2693 cases - was 3667 last week

7.2% positivity - was 8.5% last week

983 patients - down 15 o n yesterday - was 1011 last week

65 ventilated icu - down 9 on yesterday - was 79 last week
 
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