Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

YOU GUESSED IT - GOOD NEWS HERE AS WELL

73 with 8 from North West - Last week 133 with 12 NW, week before 97 with 17 NW

In fact it is seven weeks since there was a lower number on a Thursday.

Unless there is an unreported data glitch (never impossible with the tech we seem to have) this looks very good news.

AND IT MATCHES THE FALL IN DEATHS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS SO IT IS NOT OUT OF THE BLUE.

BY REGION:- East 4, London 10, Midlands 18, NE & Yorkshire 18, North West 8. South East 12. South West 3

Most in one trust 6 in North Midlands

NW Trusts:- 3 in Liverpool , 2 each in Bolton & St Helens and 1 in Chester

BY AGE:- 0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (2), 40 - 59 (4) , 60 - 79 (34), 80 PLUS (32)

 

[bluetonium]

The figures are encouraging for the first time in what seems like months. Yet in Stockport in our pocket of the world it doesn't feel quite like that yet.

The reality for us right now is somewhat different. Several cases at my daughter's primary school, several more off pending return of tests. Bizzare rulings mean that if a sibling test positive, only they have to isolate and other brothers and sisters can carry on coming into school like normal. Guess what, two to three days later half the siblings come down with it, by which time they've passed it on to several more in school.

We're just about to lose a few hundred quid for a school trip which will have to be cancelled. The inability to plan ahead means my job is almost on hold in case I have a 4 year old to look after for a week to so. The virus may be less aggressive in hospitalising people,a me that is something to be grateful for, but it's still finding ways of wreaking havoc on people's lives daily.

 

[Healdplace]

We als have another 7 days of England hospital death data:

And the numbers ARE down for the second week running as I suspected was happening.

Totals for past 6 weeks:

AUG 15 - 21 TOTAL 448

AUG 22 - 28 TOTAL 498

AUG 29 - SEP 4 TOTAL 508

SEP 5 - 11 TOTAL 577

SEP 12 - 18 TOTAL 526

SEP 19 - 25 TOTAL 508


That seems to suggest the wave has peaked.

Indeed as of now the last date even after add ons since then where 100 deaths were recorded is 10 September.

The peak looks to be 106 on 3 September which matches the weekly numbers track well

The last date where deaths are in the 90s after all add ons since is 90 on 17 September.

 

[Healdplace]

The figures are encouraging for the first time in what seems like months. Yet in Stockport in our pocket of the world it doesn't feel quite like that yet.

The reality for us right now is somewhat different. Several cases at my daughter's primary school, several more off pending return of tests. Bizzare rulings mean that if a sibling test positive, only they have to isolate and other brothers and sisters can carry on coming into school like normal. Guess what, two to three days later half the siblings come down with it, by which time they've passed it on to several more in school.

We're just about to lose a few hundred quid for a school trip which will have to be cancelled. The inability to plan ahead means my job is almost on hold in case I have a 4 year old to look after for a week to so. The virus may be less aggressive in hospitalising people,a me that is something to be grateful for, but it's still finding ways of wreaking havoc on people's lives daily.

That is very interesting thank you.

As I assume you know I have been discussing the Stockport problems in here for 2 weeks wondering why the media are ignoring it. Given how it has been obvious for some time it was the worst by far in GM and has its highest numbers ever

We did realise from the age testing positive data it was schools related but this might be the missing factor. Thank you.

Again the media should be debating this and asking why retain this policy if it differs from elsewere and has contributed to the mess Stockport is in.

Yes cases are just numbers. No this will not translate into an NHS crisis probably in Stockport. But if there is a local factor why cases have gone up when not elsewhere that needs reporting and debating and changing if it is indeed why this is happening. That is why I am so frustrated the media have ignored this story.

Boris is coming here in a day or so . Andy Burnham should invite him to Stockport and as he meets school kids ask his take on the local numbers

 

[bluetonium]

That is very interesting thank you.

As I assume you know I have been discussing the Stockport problems in here for 2 weeks wondering why the media are ignoring it. Given how it has been obvious for some time it was the worst by far in GM and has its highest numbers ever

We did realise from the age testing positive data it was schools related but this might be the missing factor. Thank you.

Again the media should be debating this and asking why retain this policy if it differs from elsewere and has contributed to the mess Stockport is in.

Yes cases are just numbers. No this will not translate into an NHS crisis probably in Stockport. But if there is a local factor why cases have gone up when not elsewhere that needs reporting and debating and changing if it is indeed why this is happening. That is why I am so frustrated the media have ignored this story.

Boris is coming here in a day or so . Andy Burnham should invite him to Stockport and as he meets school kids ask his take on the local numbers

Should invite him to meet the headteacher. She's in an impossible position of trying to keep her staff and children safe whilst continuing some for of class teaching and childcare for 4-11 year olds. I've honestly never seen her so angry yet resigned to inaction.

Apparently the threshold is a minimum 5 cases per class to take further actual (or send the class home) but we have this knife edge situation of 4 children positive, another 4 off pending PCR results, and a couple more off because the parents feel it's too risky to send their kids in due to family circumstances. Net result is over a third of the class absent, but kids still testing positive every day or every other day.

Probably be through the class and on the other side of it by half term, but then it will be another year's turn to be unsettled.

 

[Blue and still suffering]

Should invite him to meet the headteacher. She's in an impossible position of trying to keep her staff and children safe whilst continuing some for of class teaching and childcare for 4-11 year olds. I've honestly never seen her so angry yet resigned to inaction.

Apparently the threshold is a minimum 5 cases per class to take further actual (or send the class home) but we have this knife edge situation of 4 children positive, another 4 off pending PCR results, and a couple more off because the parents feel it's too risky to send their kids in due to family circumstances. Net result is over a third of the class absent, but kids still testing positive every day or every other day.

Probably be through the class and on the other side of it by half term, but then it will be another year's turn to be unsettled.

Maybe that is part of the plan, vaccinate 12-15 year olds, but let it run through primary schools as it has less risks from catching it at that age.

 

[Healdplace]

137 all settings deaths - was 182 last Thursday - Big Drop

87 in England V 131 last week

36, 480 cases - down 242 from 36, 722 yesterday & down 230 from 36, 710 last Thursday - Very Flat.

England only

29, 826 - UP 790 on yesterday's 29, 036 & UP 781 from 29, 045 last Thursday.

Very Flat again.

 

[Healdplace]

Pillar 1 & 2 testing 1, 110, 647 today - was 858, 028 yesterday & 958, 930 last week.

Up significantly on both dates so the positivity numbers will be down

The increase in tests in England only V both is much the same - UP 242K v yesterday & 156 K week to week

 

[Healdplace]

GM & NW HIGHLIGHTS

Sadly Zoe is broadly right today again.

NW doing OK and GM doing worse than most of the NW.

Greater Manchester is the bigger problem now than the North West and it is not just Stockport now.

Three boroughs over 200 and none of them Manchester.

Stockport on 264 down 20 on the day but up just 6 week to week so was actually not the worst today. Though its Pop rise of 90 is big enough

Trafford had the worst day with a Pop Score rise of 95 so lost 5 points back to Stockport and on 225 up 27 on the day and 32 week to week.

However, Tameside on 204 cases - up 51 on day and 19 week to week also had a Pop Score rise of 90 - the same as Stockport,

Wigan had a good day and fell both day to day and well week to week.

Only Bury and Rochdale again sub 100 and both down day to day and week to week. Easily had the best days in GM today.

As a result GM were UP 94 today to 1578 and UP 17 week to week from 1561. Highest GM total in nearly a month.

NW on the other hand FELL today - by all of 20 to 4205, And FELL week to week by 239 from 4444.

So to rise both times whem the NW fell and especially by quite a bit week to week shows that GM is undeniably now a key reason within the NW that stops numbers falling by more respectable amounts.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL HIGHLIGHTS

A REASONABLY GOOD DAY

BEST NEWS IS THAT PATIENTS FALL BELOW 5000 TO 4916.

FIRST TIME SINCE 14 AUG AND LOWEST SINCE 7 AUG.

VENTILATORS THOUGH UP 1 TO 672

NORTH WEST PATIENTS GO SUB 800 TO 793 - DOWN 41 LOWEST SINCE 18 JULY