Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

You're the one who claims they are in any way accurate.
if they were accurate, actual numbers should be somewhere between the lower and upper quartiles of the predictions with actual numbers occasionally falling outside the range. They never are.

I quoted the report previously which directly contradicted your assertions.

I can't be arsed again - you're just after some glib sound bites and clearly have zero interest in what experts actually think.

 

[BlueAnorak]

I quoted the report previously which directly contradicted your assertions.

I can't be arsed again - you're just after some glib sound bites and clearly have zero interest in what experts actually think.

I have plenty of time for what experts think.
Covid modellers though, are clearly not experts in modelling. If they were, their predictions would be much more accurate.

 

[Healdplace]

GM WEEKLY POP SCORES

Remember low scores good - going down good - high scores bad - going up bad


BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // POP SCORE LAST WEEK // UP OR DOWN BY LAST 7 DAYS

Also WAS 4 weeks ago (up/down in past month)


MANCHESTER 216 // 216 //LEVEL WAS 285 (down 69)

ROCHDALE 236 // 238 // DOWN 2 WAS 281 (down 45)

BOLTON 246 // 245 // UP 1 WAS 240 (UP 6)

BURY 259 // 255 // UP 4 WAS 307 (down 48)

SALFORD 300 // 297 // UP 3 WAS 332 (down 32)

OLDHAM 316 // 288 // UP 28 WAS 228 (up 88 )

WIGAN 329 // 326 // UP 3 WAS 289 (UP 40)

TAMESIDE 472 // 479 // DOWN 7 WAS 433 (UP 39)

TRAFFORD 512 // 396 // UP 116 WAS 330 (UP 182)

STOCKPORT 523 // 478 // UP 45 WAS 384 (UP 139)





Stockport fell and Trafford rose and changed quite a bit!

Trafford now over 500 too and only 11 behind Stockport.

Tameside meanwhile has had a few good days and pulled back from them both though now as the only one in the 400s way clear of Wigan.

Stockport now 194 clear of Wigan in fourth says it all.

But Stockport's numbers HAVE improved and whilst most in GM now going up weel to week they and Trafford are up the most across the past month and TRafford's last few days have put it ahead of Stockport on these markers and may even go top Pop Score this weekend. Which looked improbable a week ago.

Manchester rose and Rochdale by even more at the top so the gap between Manchester and Stockport top to bottom FELL for the first time in ages by 6 today at 'only' 307!

So maybe just a hint of a start of a better path here.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

Maybe the percentage of people excluding kids that put themselves at risk have nearly all had it now and the rest of the borough are very careful?

Oldham it seems hasn't got anywhere near that point yet.

That's the only explanation that makes any sense to me...localised herd immunity. There doesn't appear to be a huge amount of caution compared to say Somerset, where I've just visited

 

[Healdplace]

But I don't think that overall there is an older population in Salford than say Stockport. It isn't more affluent and it has a sizable proportion of minority groups so there is no obvious reason for the huge difference between the areas.

Its obviously not just raw numbers it has to be possibly down to variations in school policy burough to burough limiting better or less well the spread.

I have been calling in here for two weeks for someone to investigate this very issue as it was shouting out to us from the data.

I have no idea if anyone has because they MUST be aware of what has been going on for over a fortnight now and someone must have had the job somewhere to figure put why. But the media largely have missed this - even locally - other than to belatedly report yesterday that Greater Manchester was a hot spot. As it has been for a week or more.

I know most of you do not read the data posts and I totally understand why so this is not a comment on any poster here but this issue has been emerging from the data since schools went back. I doubt that is a coincidence and someone must have seen this too who is at the heart of figuring out why. It has been VERY clear for over two weeks now.

 

[Healdplace]

We are currently hospitalising more children than at any point in the entire pandemic.

Not sure they or their parents would regard it as a "casedemic".

Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights - Office for National Statistics

www.ons.gov.uk

View attachment 27366

The data is reported as rates per 100,000, about 1.3. If my maths is right, we're currently hospitalising about 150 kids a week with covid, and have been all summer. By contrast, rates in adults are way down.

Of course, sadly, you let young children catch it and some will be hospitalised. I am not condoning that as a policy. As I said I think it happened by default as they took way too long making up their minds and wasting the Summer beeak to do what we all said in here they WOULD do in the end.

That will come out in the end.

As I also point out in the England hospital death data children ARE dying every week from Covid. They are not immune. But happily it is only a tiny number each week and days go by with none.

Plus their stays in hospital will largely be shorter as they tend to be less ill even if they need treatment. That is presumably why the patient numbers are falling, More coming out than going in week to week can only be explained that way.

I have taught in schools long ago. I would never advocate putting them at risk. I think they screwed up the vaccinations over the Summer. But I think the consequence is what we have. It maty be another government cock up that accidentally on purpose looks like genius.

Not that this is any way to deal with a pandemic but we are where we are and someone has to make these big calls.

And hopefully it will all come out in the independent investigation next year.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

And hopefully it will all come out in the independent investigation next year

I think I could only honestly reply to that in the politics thread!

 

[worsleyweb]

Hearing a few more ambulances

 

[Healdplace]

I think I could only honestly reply to that in the politics thread!

I get why but I am apolitical on this. I do not have a party. At one time or another I have voted for them all and decide on who offers the best ideas. So have empathy that a new government faced such a once in a century crisis weeks after election.

But of course they have made mistakes. Some big ones. Every nation has. The key is to not keep making them and not do the same thing when it happens again. As there will be a next time. Hopefully not soon. But nobody knows. Pandemics will be a fact of life now global travel is so easy.

 

[Healdplace]

ZOE APP NEWS

TODAY'S UPDATE

THE RISES CONTINUE SADLY - BUT REDUCED A LITTLE AGAIN TODAY


Predicted cases are

UP TO 62, 422 FROM 62, 185 a rise of of 237 after rises of 1389, 2670, 2416, 2118, 2658, 683, 2306 in the days before.

It WAS 50, 251 last week - a RISE week to week of 12, 171 after rises of 14, 240 after and 14, 496 in past few days.




Ongoing symptomatic cases UP too again-


FROM 744, 302 TO 759, 121 a rise of 14, 819 following rises of 17, 407, 18, 305, 38, 085 and 4204 on previous days.


IT WAS 664, 364 last week. A pretty scary weekly RISE of 94, 757 following weekly rises of 74, 938, 61, 132, 67, 643 and 39, 338 after FALLS of 7794, 5392, 4562 in previous days.

THE SCHOOLS INCREASE IS NOW HITTING HARD IT SEEMS

There is always a lag to the change in ongoing cases after a rise or fall in daily case numbers as ongoing cases persist and are not just counted on the day of first report.