Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Marvin said:
Those countries that are right at the top: UAE, Portugal and Spain have very low infection rates but unless you start vaccinating children from aged 5 upwards what can you do here in the UK?
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Portugal, astonishingly, has vaccinated 98% of ages 12+

98%

Remarkable.

Our 12-15 rollout seems so half hearted they'll mainly catch it before getting vaccinated. Whilst passing it on to family members.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Portugal, astonishingly, has vaccinated 98% of ages 12+

98%

Remarkable.

Our 12-15 rollout seems so half hearted they'll mainly catch it before getting vaccinated. Whilst passing it on to family members.
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Totally up to the UK medics on the JCVI.

We should be vaccinating younger folks but there maybe method in the apparant madness, in that disease aqluirdd immunity seems to be more long lasting than vaccination acquired. Early days of the scientific analysis of the data but it is starting to look that way.
 
johnnymarrsbarres said:
People on here will be advocating for another lockdown.
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Except the R number is much less important because of the ages of those catching it which are very different from past waves and why 36K cases now means far less chance of overwhelming the NHS.

Almost every day in here I post stats showing that overwhelingly the ones mostly catching it are under 15 - in essence the schoolkids we waited longer than most big nations to decide to vaccinate. We are playing catch up on that I suspect partly deliberately as the risk for that age group is minimal.

Last time we had 35K + cases week after week the NHS was swamped. It is not yet apart from smaller isoated regions like Cheshire East which has a serious outbreak.

In fact as my NHS data posts in the past few days have shown hospital numbers have FALLEN and so have those on ventilators and are at their lowest levels since schools broke up for Summer. THe case numbers have been almost detatched from the hospital data because of the age of those catching it. THAT is much more important now than the R number.

The R number is a guide to prevalence and if it is increasing or decreasing but we can see that daily from the cases and they are not uniform as school returns have driven the rise.

Either way it is always far less now a guide to the need to take drastic action. In some ways kids catching this before mid winter and family gatherings at Christmas where more vulnerable people mix with these children is the best option. Which may be why we took our time.

Whether planned or not more children will get some immunity from it spreading around their school than would hve done from a vaccination programme in August.
 
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Healdplace said:
more children will get some immunity from it spreading around their school than would hve done from a vaccination programme in August
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Seriously?

If we vaccinated the majority in August (or ideally July, before they broke up) how on earth could this be true?
 
SWP's back said:


That’s around 1 in 420 have died since the pandemic began.
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Early in the last decade, estimates of deaths in the Civil War were revised upwards to 750,000, so this pandemic is quite likely to surpass even that tragic figure. Of course, the country then was bitterly divided on race, geography, and perceived freedoms…
 
Because of the data from Gov UK being published very last night due to 'tech issues' here is yesterday's data.


ENGLAND REGIONS


EAST FALLS by 588 - TO 2822 V 2588 - UP 234 IN WEEK

LONDON FALLS BY 244 - TO 2195 V 2783 DOWN 588 IN WEEK

SOUTH EAST UP BY 1336 TO 3148 V 4109 - DOWN 961 IN WEEK - A GIGANTIC DAILY FALL - MOST I RECALL EVER. Back to 1000 below the NW after being above yesterday.

SOUTH WEST UP by 63 TO 2578 V 2572 - UP 6 IN WEEK -


THE SOUTHERN REGIONS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE DAY TO DAY RIGHT NOW


EAST MIDLANDS UP BY 130 TO 3457 V 3012 UP 445 IN WEEK

WEST MIDLANDS UP BY 722 - TO 4203 V 3954 UP 249 IN WEEK -

BIGGEST TOTAL OF DAY AND ABOVE THE NORTH WEST

NORTH EAST FALLS BY 95 - TO 1122 V 1432 - DOWN 310 IN WEEK

YORKSHIRE FALLS BY 110 TO 3719 V 3634 - UP 85 IN WEEK


AND


NORTH WEST FALLS BY 36 TO 4169 V 3965 - UP 204 IN WEEK - numbers still falling but not by much and the reason is .....Greater Manchester, Cheshire and Lancaster and the Lakes.


GM AS A PERCENTAGE OF NORTH WEST CASES

TODAY 33.6% DOWN FROM 37.6% YESTERDAY - A very good fall v rest of region in GM yesterday

HOWEVER ALSO DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 34.1% LAST WEEK


GM had a better day V the NW as a whole than over the past week.
 
GREATER MANCHESTER SCOREBOARD


TOTAL CASES 1398 - DOWN 180 FROM YESTERDAY

NORTH WEST DOWN 36 TO 4169 - OBVIOUSLY A GOOD DAY FOR GM FALLING A LOT MORE THAN THE WHOLE REGION FALLS


VERSUS LAST WEEK GM WAS THEN 1351 - SO UP 47

NORTH WEST IS UP BY 204 WEEK TO WEEK FROM 4444.

SO THE GM FALL IS A BIT UNDER THE EXPECTED RISE BY PERCENTAGE WHICH IS ALSO A GOOD DAY FOR GM



MANCHESTER 201 - UP 3 on day & UP 9 wk to wk. Still flat. But back ib top spot JUST after a week odf being behind Stockport and sometimes a couple of others. Pop Score up 36. Not best in GM again after a period when it was ubntil last few days. POP SCORE 16, 045


STOCKPORT 198 - DOWN 66 on day & DOWN 11 wk to wk. A far better day and finally not just below Manchester but falling on both measures. Pop Score was up 67 (23 better than yesterday). And Trafford had a much worse day today and its Pop was 83 so LOST 16 to Stockport toda - cutting the gap to them for best overall Pop Score to 'just' 86. But still on course to be in the 14 K club next week. POP SCORE 13, 563

TRAFFORD 197 - DOWN 28 on day & UP 62 Wk to wk - Big weekly rise and Pop score of 83 is worst in GM for second day running and above Stockport by some margin. Overall Pop Score lead across the pandemic is now down to 86 and at this rate will also make the 14 K clb next week. POP SCORE 13, 477

TAMESIDE 135 - DOWN 69 on day & DOWN 35 wk to wk - a REALLY good day here too. Pop Score of 60 (was 90 yesterday!) . Pop Score. POP SCORE 14, 839

WIGAN 135 - DOWN 34 on day & DOWN 40 wk to wk. Really good day here - too. Pop score up 41 today. Lowest in a while. POP SCORE 15, 309

OLDHAM 124 - UP 9 on day & DOWN 3 Wk to Wk. Pop Score up 52 and now 255 ahead of Manchester for highest overall GM pop score. POP SCORE 16, 300

BURY 106 - UP 40 on day & UP 36 wk to wk. Highest score here in a while. Pop score here up 55. Another high. Easily enough to enter the 15 K club. POP SCORE 15, 030

BOLTON 104 - DOWN 25 on day & DOWN 3 wk to wk - Bolton Pop Score up 35. Best in GM today - first time in a while for Bolton. POP SCORE 15, 352

ROCHDALE 104 - UP 33 on day & UP 51 wk to wk. Finally had a number anything like Zoe has been saying it would for a few days! Pop Score up 46. POP SCORE 15, 572

SALFORD 94 - DOWN 43 on day & DOWN 19 wk to wk. Very good a day as Zoe has long predicted now best in GM and only sub 100 score today. Pop Score up 36 . Just pupped by Bolton for lowest rise f the day. POP SCORE 15, 926
 
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