Coronavirus (2021) thread

[BlueAnorak]

You simply refuse to engage with the content and produce glib soundbites.

Start from the perspective that experts know more than you and ask yourself what you can learn.

"Likely" does not mean "certain".

"Not a forecast" means "not a forecast"

"time of significant uncertainty" means "time of significant uncertainty"

No. Your claim they aren't statistical predictions due to get out clauses is ridiculous.
If I had produced such statistical projections on UK population models for the ONS I wouldn't have stayed in a job for long and that's a fact.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Bit like Japan which is even more densely populated and with a high % of older people.
Yet their death rate is 141 per million compared to the UK of 2,004 per million.
And it is reported Japan's PM is set to resign amid criticism of the country's Covid response!

The Japanese also tend to conform with advice though unlike the large numbers of Covidiots in this country.

 

[Healdplace]

33 all settings deaths - was 40 last week - though GOV UK say:-


QUOTE:


Daily counts of deaths in England rely on multiple data sources. Data from one source was delayed on 4 October 2021.

This will have a small impact on the total number of deaths reported today. Any additional deaths related to this delay will be included in the numbers published on 5 October 2021.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

No. Your claim they aren't statistical predictions due to get out clauses is ridiculous

It is not merely stated in the report, it is highlighted in bold in a vain attempt to help people like you understand it is not a prediction.

It literally says it. Word for word.

Live with it.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

If I had produced such statistical projections on UK population models for the ONS I wouldn't have stayed in a job for long and that's a fact

Perhaps this fact might just might help the fact that epidemiology and population modelling are not analogous penetrate your consciousness?

 

[Healdplace]

Cases sadly are well up on yesterday - by 4638 to 35, 077 in the UK.

Inevitable as Wales is double data on Mondays over day before which means 2000 or so up automtically just from that factor.

Today's number is though DOWN from 37, 960 last Monday. By 2883

England though is up quite a bit on yesterday:-

28, 521 - up 3075 on yesterday

Though it is a little DOWN from 29, 329 last week - a fall in England of 808 week to week.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

It is not merely stated in the report, it is highlighted in bold in a vain attempt to help people like you understand it is not a prediction.

It literally says it. Word for word.

Live with it.

Throughout the report they sate these are likely projections. then put a caveat in lol.

What you are effectively saying is all the projections are worthless due to the caveat and no one should have put any faith in them whatsoever, including of course Whitty Vallance and Johnson who spoke about the numbers at length a day after in the covid briefing, remember that??. Simply because they said they were not predictions.

They may have just produced a report with three words We don't know.

 

[Healdplace]

Pillar 1 & 2 tests today = 1, 007, 503

Was just 720, 871 yesterday & (so Gov UK claims anyway!) JUST 282, 263 on Saturday - a VERY low number. Though it is also what their testing data adds up to so appears correct.

Indeed I looked back to April 1 and there were no numbers even close to that low in the past 6 months. So seems very odd.

There were 1, 105, 823 last Monday.

The 30, 301 cases on Saturday look very suspect if true there were around a quarter of the tests then than there were for today.

But it is well under half the number of tests reported yesterday - too - and the number of cases then was just 138 more than Saturday so that would be just as odd.

Good luck working out a positivity number from those figures. I am not even going to try!

 

[Healdplace]

Date reported.	Pillar 1	Pillar 2	Pillar 3	Pillar 4	All pillars
03-10-2021	70,791	936,712	328	14,567	1,022,398
02-10-2021	81,209	639,662	530	14,167	735,568
01-10-2021	84,671	197,592	1,075	1,035	284,373
30-09-2021	85,645	939,799	973	17,592	1,044,009

THIS IS THE TESTING DATA AS YOU CAN SEE IT IS WHAT THEY CLAIM

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

It is not merely stated in the report, it is highlighted in bold in a vain attempt to help people like you understand it is not a prediction.

It literally says it. Word for word.

Live with it.

I admire your desire to defend these models but if we cannot rely on them and they are not a prediction what is the point of them?

why are people being paid thousands of pounds to produce models to which you say aren’t predictions or models and people cannot know the projection of the virus or model it ?

someone is getting paid good money to just produce a load of nonsense numbers on a spreadsheet then. Seems a bit bonkers but hey nothing surprises me.