Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Deleted member 77198]

No. Your claim they aren't statistical predictions due to get out clauses is ridiculous.
If I had produced such statistical projections on UK population models for the ONS I wouldn't have stayed in a job for long and that's a fact.

To be fair he’s right in that forecasts using real world data and historical trends are only hypothetical for future data and trends. They aren’t predicting what will happen. They are simply forecasting what there is a possibility of happening if stats and trends follow a the same path as where they got their data and trends from.

It’s like using City’s 2016-17 results to forecast City’s 2017-18 results, then get to May 2018 and see they were miles out of the final points total. But then using 2017-18’s results to forecast the 2018-19 results, and see in May 2019 that the final points totals are similar.

Both methods to forecast are the same, one year they’re miles out and one year they’re very close to reality. They were not wrong with their forecasts either time, just that sometimes real world futures can be different to real world pasts; and conversely can sometimes be similar.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Do any of the graphs accurately reflect what has happened the past month? Please answer yes of no?

Like I said, you're not engaging with the content, you're attempting rhetorical gotchas. It's tedious and doesn't inform anything.

I think we're done in this? It must be getting very tedious for anyone else.

I simply recommend reading the report, paying attention to "likely" not certain, and They are neither forecasts nor predictions

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL UPDATE - PAST THREE DAYS

MIXED NEWS



(FRI) - SAT - SUN - TODAY PATIENTS WERE (4799) - 4652 - 4778 - (TODAY) 4909


That is UP Friday to Today from 4799 to 4909 UP BY 110.

LAST WEEK THE EQUIVALENT NUMBERS WERE:-

(5036) - 5100 - 4949 - (5121)

UP BY 85.

So very little difference


LAST WEEK THE WEEK TO WEEK PATIENT NUMBERS MON - MON WERE - 5727 - 5121 - A WEEKLY FALL OF 606

THIS WEEK IT WAS 5121 - 4909 - A WEEKLY FALL OF 212



(FRI) - SAT - SUN - (TODAY)


LONDON (FRI 927) - 894 - 906 - (TODAY 934) - DOWN Wk to Wk 65 was 123 last week

MIDLANDS (930) - 883- 971 - (TODAY 993) - DOWN Wk to Wk 38 was 167 last week

NE & YORKSHIRE (1023) - 1013 - 1055 - (TODAY 1059) - Down Wk to Wk 70 was 27 last week

NORTH WEST (786) - 788 - 744 - (TODAY 773 ) - DOWN Wk to Wk 97 was 43 last week



As you can see North West had a small FALL over the weekend and the others were UP but NW also has the best week to week fall Mon to Mon.

BUT

Yorkshire as you see still above 1000.

North West fell in the 700s for first time since mid Summer.


The other smaller regions over the weekend (FRI - TODAY):-

East fell 5 to 379 - exactly where it was 7 days ago

South East UP by 29 to 444 - which is UP 39 week to week

South West UP by 13 to 347 - - which is UP 19 week to week

EXACTLY AS ZOE HAS BEEN SHOWING ALL THIS WEEK WITH THE REGIONAL CASES THE SOUTHERN REGIONS ALL NOW RISING IS THE KEY CHANGE

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND HOSPITAL UPDATE - VENTILATORS PAST THREE DAYS


GOOD NEWS HERE



(FRI) - SAT - SUN - (TODAY) VENTILATORS WERE (671) - 630 - 639 - (632 TODAY)

So a FALL over the weekend of 39

LAST WEEK THE EQUIVALENT NUMBERS WERE:-

(730) - 723 - 689- (685)

A FALL over the weekend of 45


THESE ARE STILL FALLING WHICH IS VERY GOOD NEWS


.

WEEK TO WEEK (MON TO MON) VENTILATORS FELL FROM 685 TO 632 - A FALL OF 53

LAST WEEK THE MON TO MON FALL WAS FROM 811 TO 685- A FALL OF 126




(FRI) - SAT - SUN - (TODAY)


LONDON (FRI 179) - 176 - 176 - (TODAY 173) - DOWN Wk to Wk 10

MIDLANDS (130) - 122 - 130 - (TODAY 131) - DOWN Wk to Wk 13

NE & YORKSHIRE (125) - 123 - 129 - (TODAY 125) - DOWN Wk to Wk 5

NORTH WEST (88) - 82 - 78 - (TODAY 72 ) - DOWN Wk to Wk 18



As you can see North West easily had the best weekend here - though the price was possibly the high deaths in the region recorded for England hospitals in past 3 days.

The wk to week fall is also the largest.

North West now well below the other large regions and at its lowest number in nearly 4 months.


The other smaller regions over the weekend (FRI - TODAY):-

East fell by 5 to 50

South East fell by 3 to 41

South West fell by 10 to 40

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Like I said, you're not engaging with the content, you're attempting rhetorical gotchas. It's tedious and doesn't inform anything.

I think we're done in this? It must be getting very tedious for anyone else.

I simply recommend reading the report, paying attention to "likely" not certain, and They are neither forecasts nor predictions

Just as I supected, you dodged the question. Oh well never mind.

I will still keep reading your posts on this thread as you clearly know more about virology than most on this forum including myself. I will just flick past your very odd defences of inaccurate Sage projections. Lol

Have a good evening.

 

[Healdplace]

UK PATIENTS AS OF TODAY:


ENGLAND 4909 SCOTLAND 1001 NORTHERN IRELAND 338 WALES 434

UK TOTAL 6682

(DOWN 48 OVER WEEKEND)





VENTILATED UK AS OF TODAY


ENGLAND 632 SCOTLAND 67 NORTHERN IRELAND 28 WALES 43

UK TOTAL 770


(DOWN 45 OVER WEEKEND)

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

To be fair he’s right in that forecasts using real world data and historical trends are only hypothetical for future data and trends. They aren’t predicting what will happen. They are simply forecasting what there is a possibility of happening if stats and trends follow a the same path as where they got their data and trends from.

It’s like using City’s 2016-17 results to forecast City’s 2017-18 results, then get to May 2018 and see they were miles out of the final points total. But then using 2017-18’s results to forecast the 2018-19 results, and see in May 2019 that the final points totals are similar.

Both methods to forecast are the same, one year they’re miles out and one year they’re very close to reality. They were not wrong with their forecasts either time, just that sometimes real world futures can be different to real world pasts; and conversely can sometimes be similar.

A completely pointless excercise then. But still one that was and is used to determine government policy.

 

[Healdplace]

ENGLAND REGIONS


EAST UP by 651 - TO 3224 V 3438 - DOWN 214 IN WEEK

LONDON UP BY 391 - TO 2665 V 2900 DOWN 235 IN WEEK

SOUTH EAST UP BY 807 TO 4580 V 4318 UP 262 IN WEEK - HIGHEST REGION WELL ABOVE NW AGAIN

SOUTH WEST UP BY 85 TO 2434 V 2982 DOWN 548 IN WEEK


ALL RISING NOW




EAST MIDLANDS UP BY 137 TO 2906 V 3361 DOWN 455 IN WEEK

WEST MIDLANDS UP BY 226 - TO 3514 V 3619 DOWN 105 IN WEEK -



SMALL FALLS IN THE MIDLANDS TOO AND ALL OF THE ABOVE REGIONS NW DOWN WEEK TO WEEK



NORTH EAST UP BY 191 - TO 1272 V 1315 - DOWN 43 IN WEEK

YORKSHIRE UP BY 211 TO 3057 V 3485 - DOWN 428 IN WEEK


AND


NORTH WEST UP BY 242 TO 3618 V 3279 - UP 339 IN WEEK

NORTH WEST THE ONLY REGION ALONG WITH THE ONLY OTHER ONE HIGHER (SOUTH EAST) WHO WERE UP THIS WEEK V LAST WEEK.

CLEARLY THESE ARE THE TWO AREAS MOST OF CONCERN RIGHT NOW


GM AS A PERCENTAGE OF NORTH WEST CASES

TODAY 35,6% DOWN FROM 38.4% YESTERDAY - Better day with good fall in split versus NW today.

HOWEVER VERY SLIGHTLY UP FROM 35.2% LAST WEEK - Minimum increase.

All in all a good day for GM


GM had a less good day V the NW as a whole. Though these daily numbers do go up and down due to the way they are counted - why week to week matters more than day to day and that is looking higher than expercted still in GM v NW.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

A completely pointless excercise then. But still one that was and is used to determine government policy.

It has to be what Govt policy is determined from really. You can only off real world data and trends, it could be wrong but you have to cover the bases from what’s happened before.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I'm struggling to find much data on the following so thought I'd put it out to the BM Covid experts.

Myself & my wife have the full course of Pfizer back in Feb/March, now if we were in the UK we'd be looking at the Pfizer booster shots but where we currently live there are no boosters although we have both been offered a full course of AZ each.

Now I have no problems going and getting the double jab of AZ (one would imagine my antibody numbers would then be through the roof) but is there any guidance if this is advised or safe/unsafe?

How old are you and have you had Covid?