Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Healdplace]

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

Another OK day here too

3 deaths - was 4 last week

1209 cases - was 1078 last week

6.1% positivity - was 6.4% last week

7700 weekly cases - was 7858 yesterday & 7540 last week

64 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 70 YESTERDAY & 80 LAST WEEK -

346 patients - UP 8 on yesterday - was 362 last week

27 Ventilated - down 1 on yesterday - was 24 last week



THE BIG CARE HOME FALLS GO ON AND DEATHS ARE FALLING AT LEAST PARTLY BECAUSE OF THAT

WORTH NOTING THAT WITH THE WEEKLY CASES VERY SIMILAR OF THAT 7K NUMBER THE OVER 80s HAD A BIG % DROP IN THOSE NUMBERS - WITH 199 LAST WEEK AND JUST 139 TODAY

BIG FACTOR IN WHY DEATHS ARE FALLING IN THE UK WITH CASES STILL HIGH

 

[Rammy Blue]

Could anyone help with this?

My grandma come back from Spain on Friday. She had her day 2 PCR come back negative, and today has been pinged by track and trace to say she's been in contact with someone (it will be on the plane as as doesn't have the app or go anywhere)

She doesn't have to isolate but they say she "should" get a pcr test, but it doesn't say she 'has' to have one. If she's already had the PCR test a few days ago and she was negative, does she really need another?

Shes 83, double jabbed and no symptoms. She also has her booster booked for Thursday

No, she doesn’t need another. It’d be utterly pointless unless she started showing symptoms.

 

[mcfc_ms]

No, she doesn’t need another. It’d be utterly pointless unless she started showing symptoms.

Thanks. Thought the same

 

[Healdplace]

No, she doesn’t need another. It’d be utterly pointless unless she started showing symptoms.

Though with the booster due in 48 hours I would talk to her doctor just to be sure. I don't know if having been exposeed to Covid in past few days makes any difference to the efficacy of the booster - and it seems unlikely - but I would still ask her GP given its a one off to see her through the Winter. At that age I would take no risks.

 

[BlueHammer85]

Hospitals in England may struggle with winter surge of COVID – SAGE expert​

One of Britain's top epidemiologists has warned that hospitals in England may be unable to cope with a significant surge in COVID cases this winter.
He added this may be the case even if vaccination rates mean deaths do not approach the same level as in 2020.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

SCOTLAND DATA

More OK data - apart from the deaths

21 deaths - was 16 last week

2056 cases - was 2370 last week

10.3% positivity - was 10.6% last week

998 patients - down 3 on yeterday - was 1027 last week - Back in three figures happily

65 ventilated icu - down 2 on yesterday - was 73 last week

Not to be overly negative, but maybe first signs of a slow down in decline over last couple of days (numbers/positivity)?

Kinda wonder what will cause peaks and troughs now, given that everything is open ie its been understandable why things escalate as we reopened but the question is what happens from here? Will it find a level to plateau on for a much more prolonged time period or will Herd Immunity threshold move as we go into the autumn/winter time meaning peaks and troughs still likely to follow suit?

It's probably the first time that I couldn't even put a guess on what happens from here.

 

[Healdplace]

Not to be overly negative, but maybe first signs of a slow down in decline over last couple of days (numbers/positivity)?

Kinda wonder what will cause peaks and troughs now, given that everything is open ie its been understandable why things escalate as we reopened but the question is what happens from here? Will it find a level to plateau on for a much more prolonged time period or will Herd Immunity threshold move as we go into the autumn/winter time meaning peaks and troughs still likely to follow suit?

It's probably the first time that I couldn't even put a guess on what happens from here.

Perhaps but given the level of testing we are doing these days I doubt the new normal will be 100 cases anywhere. And I dont think it was ever that in Scotland. It is possible that there will be a base level in Scotland of around 1000 cases whatever is going on.

Nobody knows we just reasonably can conclude that 2056 cases as today means a VERY different thing from what 2056 cases meant last Winter. It would probably be more like 856 cases meant then. If that.

The hospital numbers are the key now everywhere. Cases are nothing like as much of a guide as they were.

 

[blueparrot]

Hospitals in England may struggle with winter surge of COVID – SAGE expert​

One of Britain's top epidemiologists has warned that hospitals in England may be unable to cope with a significant surge in COVID cases this winter.
He added this may be the case even if vaccination rates mean deaths do not approach the same level as in 2020.

May, depending on what ?

 

[GaudinoMotors]

Hospitals in England may struggle with winter surge of COVID – SAGE expert​

One of Britain's top epidemiologists has warned that hospitals in England may be unable to cope with a significant surge in COVID cases this winter.
He added this may be the case even if vaccination rates mean deaths do not approach the same level as in 2020.

Good ol Sage.

 

[BlueHammer85]

May, depending on what ?

Winter weather