Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
GREATER MANCHESTER SCOREBOARD


TOTAL CASES 1289 - DOWN 7 FROM YESTERDAY

NORTH WEST UP 242 TO 3618 - OBVIOUSLY GM HAD GOOD DAY - FALLING EVEN IF JUST BY 7 WHEN REGION GOES UP


VERSUS LAST WEEK GM WAS THEN 1155 - SO UP 134

NORTH WEST RISES BY 339 WEEK TO WEEK FROM 3279.

AN OK DAY HERE TOO AS THAT IS ABOUT THE EXPECTED SHARE OF THE NW WEEK TO WEEK RISE - GM HAS BEEN ABOVE THIS SHARE FOR A FEW DAYS NOW SO THIS IS A LITTLE BETTER.




TRAFFORD 240 - UP 37 on day & UP 100 Wk to wk - Zoe predicted TRafford rising and boy has it done so. Do not recall it ever topping the tree ahead of both Manchester and Stockport. A Pop score rise of 101 is the first century in weeks in GM and meant a big gain back from Stockport who had a lot better day. Overall Pop Score lead across the whole pandemic slashed in one go to 33. A week ago Trafford was well over 100 in the lead. POP SCORE 13, 742


STOCKPORT 197 - UP 25 on day & UP 3 wk to wk. Would not be a great day without Trafford going stratospheric but low wk to wk rise helps. Pop Score was 67 (34 better than Trafford). And Stockport slashed its lead to 33. Both though still on course to be in the 14 K club this week after a very short stay in the 13K one. POP SCORE 13, 775


TAMESIDE 156 - UP 39 on day & UP 13 wk to wk - even Tameside beat Manchester again. Pop Score of 68 also above Stockport. Easily enough to gatecrash the 15 K club . POP SCORE 15, 033


MANCHESTER 146 - DOWN 11 on day & UP 23 wk to wk. Pop Score up 26. Best of the day in GM yet again., POP SCORE 16, 137


WIGAN 139 - DOWN 6 on day & DOWN 13 wk to wk. Pop score up 42 today. POP SCORE 15, 442


SALFORD 115 - DOWN 10 on day & UP 25 wk to wk. Starting to edge up as Zoe predicted. Pop Score up 44. POP SCORE 16, 064



SO FOUR BOROUGHS UNDER 100 TODAY - THE USUAL WELL PERFORMING ONES


BOLTON 95 - DOWN 13 on day & UP 26 wk to wk - Pop Score up 33. POP SCORE 15, 454

OLDHAM 76 - DOWN 30 on day & DOWN 9 Wk to Wk. Pop Score up 32 - 6 ahead of Manchester today and so lead over the city rises to 279 - not looking likely to stop rising. POP SCORE 16, 416

ROCHDALE 65 - DOWN 10 on day & DOWN 26 wk to wk. Pop Score up 29. POP SCORE 15, 668

BURY 60 - DOWN 28 on day & DOWN 8 wk to wk. Pop score here up 32. POP SCORE 15, 153
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
To be fair he’s right in that forecasts using real world data and historical trends are only hypothetical for future data and trends. They aren’t predicting what will happen. They are simply forecasting what there is a possibility of happening if stats and trends follow a the same path as where they got their data and trends from.

It’s like using City’s 2016-17 results to forecast City’s 2017-18 results, then get to May 2018 and see they were miles out of the final points total. But then using 2017-18’s results to forecast the 2018-19 results, and see in May 2019 that the final points totals are similar.

Both methods to forecast are the same, one year they’re miles out and one year they’re very close to reality. They were not wrong with their forecasts either time, just that sometimes real world futures can be different to real world pasts; and conversely can sometimes be similar.
Click to expand...

But when they turn out to be right, would they advertise this and take the credit that their modelling was accurate?
 
GM boroughs weekly past 7 day case totals:

Rochdale 516, Bury 537 , Oldham 701, Bolton 719, Salford 841 , Wigan 1087, Tameside 1088, Manchester 1263, Trafford 1380, Stockport 1594

At the right end of the table Rochdale still top as both they and Bury had good days.

At the wrong end of the table Stockport UP by 3 and Manchester 23 so the lead by Stockport decreased over them. Stockport now 331 ahead of Manchester. But the bigger story is Trafford - easily the worst day again today - well above Manchester in second and CUT the gap big to Stockport who now lead by to just 214 - a jump of 97 in one day!

Pre vaccines Stockport and Trafford were always scrapping for the lowest scores just as they still are for the lowest POP score across the entire 18 month pandemic AND they have the best vaccine numbers too. Now they have the most cases between them.
 
GM WEEKLY POP SCORES

Remember low scores good - going down good - high scores bad - going up bad


BOROUGH // POP SCORE TODAY // POP SCORE LAST WEEK // UP OR DOWN BY LAST 7 DAYS

Also WAS 4 weeks ago (up/down in past month)


MANCHESTER 227 // 205 //UP 22 WAS 301 (down 74)

ROCHDALE 231 // 231 // LEVEL WAS 313 (down 82)

BOLTON 250 // 250 // LEVEL WAS 255 (down 5 )

BURY 282 // 251 // UP 31 WAS 300 (down 18)

SALFORD 320 // 292 // UP 28 WAS 351 (down 31)

WIGAN 329 // 335 // DOWN 6 WAS 319 (UP 10)

OLDHAM 331 // 301 // UP 30 WAS 282 (UP 49)

TAMESIDE 479 // 484 // DOWN 5 WAS 467 (UP 12)

STOCKPORT 542 // 489 // UP 53 WAS 394 (UP 146 )

TRAFFORD 581 // 443 // UP 138 WAS 356 (UP 225)






Trafford had even worse numbers today and Stockport a better day so there was a big switcheroo up top.

Unless Trafford has a good day tomorrow it could top 600. Which I think would be first here. I do not recalk it ever as high as where it is now.

Tameside edged up a little. Tameside the only borough falling over the week with Wigan - though Bolton is level.

Manchester rose a little and is clear but Rochdale closed in and nobody seems able to get near 200 now let alone fall below it.

The top to bottom spread is now 354 - but from Manchester to Trafford for a change.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Perhaps this fact might just might help the fact that epidemiology and population modelling are not analogous penetrate your consciousness?
Click to expand...
Perhaps you will stop flogging a dead horse at some point as well. Here's hoping.
As epidemiology models they are useless.
Worse they are so wrong that they allow Covidiots to ridicule science as well.
 
Last edited:
Psychedelic Casual said:
To be fair he’s right in that forecasts using real world data and historical trends are only hypothetical for future data and trends. They aren’t predicting what will happen. They are simply forecasting what there is a possibility of happening if stats and trends follow a the same path as where they got their data and trends from.

It’s like using City’s 2016-17 results to forecast City’s 2017-18 results, then get to May 2018 and see they were miles out of the final points total. But then using 2017-18’s results to forecast the 2018-19 results, and see in May 2019 that the final points totals are similar.

Both methods to forecast are the same, one year they’re miles out and one year they’re very close to reality. They were not wrong with their forecasts either time, just that sometimes real world futures can be different to real world pasts; and conversely can sometimes be similar.
Click to expand...
They are useless and have no point if that is the case. Except, of course, to ridicule science and give Covidiots the ammunition they crave.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Assuming you’re in good health, you should be fine without a booster. If you were desperate to get one, a single AZ should suffice. If they offer you two, just don’t go back for the second one..
Click to expand...
But when our lockdown eases, without a full vaccination record here, we will be stuck not going to restaurants, the gym etc.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
✖
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.