Healdplace
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 12 May 2013
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Below I will post the position on this day a year ago 10 Dec 2020.
We were pre vaccine (the first dose had been given anywhere in the world just a couple of days earlier). And London was suddenly spiking in cases and a new variant (the Kent variant) had just been discovered and a huge wave was predicted (and kind of happened). And everyone was told the vaccines would hopefully save the day. Deja vu all over again now.
London had started climbing a week or so before and from about now last year the graph of those cases began to look very like the near vertical ones we are being shown for Omicron.
The mood was pessimistic with dire numbers forecast for January. We got some. It was not good but the worst fears never materialised thankfully. Deaths were bad but underneath some forecasts and the wave was relarively short lived.
In fact it peaked around 5 or 6 weeks after it started (19/20 January) and fell as steeply as it rose and by 27 February we were more or less where we were on 10 December heading down to very low levels for the next four months until Delta arrived and created a far less dramatic and well spread out wave suppressed by the vaccination programme. Even now we are nowhere near where we were at the start pont of the Kent variant wave a year ago.
On the data thread I plan to post a daily update charting the numbers day to day of Kent 20/21 versus Omicron 21/22 but thought I would post the first one in here so anyone interested can look as and when they feel like it on the data thread and see how this wave matches last years one in the very changed environment we have today.
We were pre vaccine (the first dose had been given anywhere in the world just a couple of days earlier). And London was suddenly spiking in cases and a new variant (the Kent variant) had just been discovered and a huge wave was predicted (and kind of happened). And everyone was told the vaccines would hopefully save the day. Deja vu all over again now.
London had started climbing a week or so before and from about now last year the graph of those cases began to look very like the near vertical ones we are being shown for Omicron.
The mood was pessimistic with dire numbers forecast for January. We got some. It was not good but the worst fears never materialised thankfully. Deaths were bad but underneath some forecasts and the wave was relarively short lived.
In fact it peaked around 5 or 6 weeks after it started (19/20 January) and fell as steeply as it rose and by 27 February we were more or less where we were on 10 December heading down to very low levels for the next four months until Delta arrived and created a far less dramatic and well spread out wave suppressed by the vaccination programme. Even now we are nowhere near where we were at the start pont of the Kent variant wave a year ago.
On the data thread I plan to post a daily update charting the numbers day to day of Kent 20/21 versus Omicron 21/22 but thought I would post the first one in here so anyone interested can look as and when they feel like it on the data thread and see how this wave matches last years one in the very changed environment we have today.
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