Coronavirus (2021) thread

[grunge]

Not according to some on here. I actually didn't say I thought China released it as some biological weapon, I wanted to know from some of our knowledgeable posters on here if this was normal virus behaviour. Not mutating as I know viruses do that, but I've heard some experts have said it had surprised them in its behaviour. Our own government is economical with the truth and would anybody trust China in that context?

i personally don’t buy into the whole “how it mutates makes it man made” theory. It’s like saying “in a million generations time your descendent will be blond haired and green eyed”.

 

[marco]

I've just seen you link me to my post on Epstein to try and prove I'm some sort of conspiracy enthusiast, because I said what probably 99% of the world thinks, he was silenced because he knew too much. That's my opinion on a highly suspicious death while he was supposedly a high risk prisoner in protective custody.Just like the police investigating Saville and finding there wasn't enough evidence to take him to court, amazing what people believe isn't it?

TBH you would have to be some sort of nut job to dismiss that Epstein was not taken out and did indeed hang himself,,if i ever come back in the next life im certainly going to be a multi millionaire because as you age in life you see how gullible people are

 

[Marvin]

I wish we knew what the prognosis for Omicron infection was i.e. how many who are infected will get serious illness. This is far from obvious because 81% of UK people over the age of 12 have been double vaccinated and 40% of >12s have had a booster. Plus there is a question mark over whether omicron infection leads to serious illness.

I am not bothered for myself because my booster is next week and the data shows that it will be very effective but I hate the thought of more lockdowns. I believe that lockdowns will be unnecessary though I understand why we are talking about them because there is huge uncertainty. If you were managing the health service or local services and in a position of responsibility and you were being fed the reports we have all seen you'd be compelled to plan for the worst.

My hunch is that omicron is not intrinsically milder but appears milder in populations simply because exposure to the virus across the globe is now very significant. We can therefore expect a huge spike in cases but will it be associated with a spike in death and hospitalisation? I think it will be manageable because I am trusting that infection / vaccination truly does protect against serious illness.

The SA epidemic is our window on our future (but they don't have boosters - just starting I believe) and yet the picture there is confusing. The daily figures and hospitalisations are also confusing. Early days. We will know in a week I think.

Link to SA health service data (SA website)

You can also look at Norwegian data: They have an omicron infection too I believe and hosiptalisations are climbing steeply. This data is worrying. See their ICU admissions.

Edit: I later realised from other comments that the Norwegian data is likely irrelevant as they have a serious Delta infection.

Norwegian hospital data

Conclusion: Get your booster and cross your fingers.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Interesting read. Pretty worrying that AZ has zero effectiveness against it, which I’m not sure how she has concluded?

The efficacy quoted is against symptomatic disease, not hospitalisation. That's believed very likely to hold up well. Thankfully.

The Pfizer quoted efficacy is also very low indeed, 30% only. Both have large error margins, both could be similar in reality.

But. Booster takes you to 70%+ for at least a month.

Get your boosters blues.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The SA epidemic is our window on our future (but they don't have boosters - just starting I believe) and yet the picture there is confusing. The daily figures and hospitalisations are also confusing. Early days. We will know in a week I think

SA thread from local health journalist, reflects your opinion.

 

[Gabriel]

I wish we knew what the prognosis for Omicron infection was i.e. how many who are infected will get serious illness. This is far from obvious because 81% of UK people over the age of 12 have been double vaccinated and 40% of >12s have had a booster. Plus there is a question mark over whether omicron infection leads to serious illness.

I am not bothered for myself because my booster is next week and the data shows that it will be very effective but I hate the thought of more lockdowns. I believe that lockdowns will be unnecessary though I understand why we are talking about them because there is huge uncertainty. If you were managing the health service or local services and in a position of responsibility and you were being fed the reports we have all seen you'd be compelled to plan for the worst.

My hunch is that omicron is not intrinsically milder but appears milder in populations simply because exposure to the virus across the globe is now very significant. We can therefore expect a huge spike in cases but will it be associated with a spike in death and hospitalisation? I think it will be manageable because I am trusting that infection / vaccination truly does protect against serious illness.

The SA epidemic is our window on our future (but they don't have boosters - just starting I believe) and yet the picture there is confusing. The daily figures and hospitalisations are also confusing. Early days. We will know in a week I think.

Link to SA health service data (SA website)

I agree with that. The South African data was incomplete yesterday but they’re also in summer and have a much younger population. Still find it bizarre that they’re on the lowest level of restrictions while the UK battens down the hatches. I reckon Omicron will go through the country like a dose of the salts over the next month, but nobody can tell how serious it’s impact will be. It’ll likely ruin any family festivities but might actually hasten the pandemic’s end, making it the best Christmas present, albeit one we don’t appreciate at the time. That’s my hunch.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

You can also look at Norwegian data: They have an omicron infection too I believe and hosiptalisations are climbing steeply. This data is worrying. See their ICU admissions

Norway was already in a big delta surge. Not sure it tells you anything about omicron.

 

[Gabriel]

Norway was already in a big delta surge. Not sure it tells you anything about omicron.

Norway’s NIPH weekly report.
https://www.fhi.no/en/publ/2020/weekly-reports-for-coronavirus-og-covid-19/

 

[True_Blue69]

The efficacy quoted is against symptomatic disease, not hospitalisation. That's believed very likely to hold up well. Thankfully.

The Pfizer quoted efficacy is also very low indeed, 30% only. Both have large error margins, both could be similar in reality.

But. Booster takes you to 70%+ for at least a month.

Get your boosters blues.

That’s a relief, cheers for clearing up.

 

[Marvin]

Norway was already in a big delta surge. Not sure it tells you anything about omicron.

I looked at it because I saw their cases rising very sharply and assumed it was omicron. If not, then irrelevant.