Coronavirus (2021) thread

[SWP's back]

They don't go by past data. If they did the prediction in March July and late September would have become more accurate with each wave with latest actuals between somewhere between the lower and upper quartile predictions.
Last September the lower quartile prediction was between two and three times HIGHER than the actual numbers.
As a statistician the SAGE models really, really bug me. They are shit and are are virtually useless.
They are so consistently bad that I will take their lower quartile prediction as the very worst case and scale it back from there.

This is the most accurate post on this thread in the last month.

 

[splinter]

Boris announcement today..

 

[SWP's back]

The data coming out of SA still looks promising..but how will an older, obese population IN the UK US fair against omicron ?

Well the “older obese” population has better access to primary care and 2-3x the vaccination percentages.

 

[Marvin]

It is not just a few GPs though. The WHO have said publically that early research suggests that Omicron is mild and that has been backed up EU health officials. It is too early to say what the outcome will be in the Uk where the population is very different to South Africa. I agree it is correct to be cautious till we know the full picture though.

Largely mild because by now most South Africans have 'seen' the virus, or mild because it's less virulent? I can't say but I know the difference. i am not interested enough to search who said what. What's more interesting is what is happening, and to know how serious a problem we are facing.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

The data coming out of SA still looks promising..but how will an older, obese population IN the UK US fair against omicron ?

Hopefully quite well in the UK at least, considering our vaccination rate is much higher than SA. We possibly could also have a high level of natural immunity given that we have been open as a society for the last 4 to 5 months with high levels of infection.

Why do the scientists not discuss this possibility?

 

[Marvin]

The data coming out of SA still looks promising..but how will an older, obese population IN the UK US fair against omicron ?

And russia. They have low vaccination rates and don't seem to have much exposure to the virus either.

 

[birchwoodgingerste]

Boris announcement today..

Resigning hopefully!

 

[leithblue]

12 posters or so on this thread who are too cowardly to come out and say what they really mean which is "I will be all right so i don't give a shit about covid, i wanna go shops and pub" So they attack science and the media. Keep watching youtube and reading facebook idiots.

on the train yesterday some guy was announcing that he’s not going to get a booster jab and hasn’t had his second jab either because “I had the first jab and not needed it yet” as if it’s some kind of get out of jail free card you play if someone coughs on you.

 

[splinter]

Hopefully quite well in the UK at least, considering our vaccination rate is much higher than SA. We possibly could also have a high level of natural immunity given that we have been open as a society for the last 4 to 5 months with high levels of infection.

Why do the scientists not discuss this possibility?

I guess we'll find out in the coming months..hopefully we come through it in good shape..

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

on the train yesterday some guy was announcing that he’s not going to get a booster jab and hasn’t had his second jab either because “I had the first jab and not needed it yet” as if it’s some kind of get out of jail free card you play if someone coughs on you.

Morons think they are some of the smartest people about, seeing things everyone can't see. It never used to be a big problem before they could group up on the internet. Now they tell you scientists know nothing but vloggers and bloggers do.