Coronavirus (2021) thread

[roubaixtuesday]

Been thinking this myself - feels like we’ve been waiting ages for info on severity, etc, that was being touted as only a few days or a week away. Plenty of positive stories for sure but nothing concrete as far as I can tell

I think there's two fundamental problems.

Firstly, it's proved impossible to deconvolute the effects of demographics and prior vaccination/ exposure in SA from the intrinsic severity of the virus.

Secondly, the sheer speed of the outbreak makes it impossible to judge. When it's (say) four days from infection to symptoms, six days from testing to hospitalisation that's ten days, or five doubling, a factor of 32, but with huge uncertainty. So you've really got almost no idea how many cases current hospitalisation correlates to.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Dr Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, has told MPs the Omicron variant "is probably the most significant threat [to public health] since the start of the pandemic".

She adds the world is probably at too early a stage to be able to tell how serious the increasing infections will be turn out to be.

The numbers and data coming out in the next few days will be "staggering" when compared to other variants, she adds.

What I don't quite understand is the difference in the opinion of the likes of Jenny Harris stating things such "probably the most significant threat [to public health] since the start of the pandemic". What does this mean ? Does she think it is going to kill more people than the first two waves, because that's what that statement could easily be interpreted as?

Compare that stance to the likes of experts from South Africa who are what 4 weeks?? further down the line with this variant than the rest of the world? Such as Dr Angelique Coetzee who have repeatedly stated that early indications are that the variant results in very mild illness? This is from first hand experience of them treating patients, not stats and models.

They just seem to be poles apart in their view of the severity of Omicron.

 

[Bluewonder]

How is anything I said wrong? I've worked with a couple of Actuaries in the past and the description of "risk assessing accountants" is verbatim from them. they were there to risk asses investments at a pensions company I worked at for a while when I couldn't get a job in my chosen field.

As for selective data to prove a point. they removed 5 weeks. 5 weeks? why those 5 weeks? its not a quarter, its not a month, its an arbitrary period of time that didn't suit them. if they had just done the last 6 months then fair do's but 5 weeks? that's the very definition of selective data.

The reason the ONS are excluding 2020 from there average calculations is so we see a non biased view or this year to give a "non pandemic" view to compare against. by including last year they are artificially increasing the average and not giving a "non pandemic" comparison.

Actuaries generally work in the pensions industry (as well as some other industries like yours). They calculate pensions liabilities using death rates and life expectancies, amongst many other things.

They haven't excluded the first 5 weeks, I have. I was pointing out that since the successful roll out of the vaccination there has been extremely minimal excess deaths.

They also aren't comparing current deaths to 2020 deaths, like the ONS.

 

[PragueBlue]

What I don't quite understand is the difference in the opinion of the likes of Jenny Harris stating things such "probably the most significant threat [to public health] since the start of the pandemic". What does this mean ? Does she think it is going to kill more people than the first two waves, because that's what that statement could easily be interpreted as?

Compare that stance to the likes of experts from South Africa who are what 4 weeks?? further down the line with this variant than the rest of the world? Such as Dr Angelique Coetzee who have repeatedly stated that early indications are that the variant results in very mild illness?

They just seem to be poles apart in their view of the severity of Omicron.

I'd be tempted to go more with those on the ground in SA that are dealing with it on a daily basis.

 

[Bluewonder]

I swear we've been saying we'll find out in the 'next few days' how it could play out for a couple weeks now...

If there is 200k new Omicron infections every day then we should be knowing about it imminently...

There aren't 200k per day. That's from a daft model that was made almost a fortnight ago.

 

[splinter]

Dr Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, has told MPs the Omicron variant "is probably the most significant threat [to public health] since the start of the pandemic".

She adds the world is probably at too early a stage to be able to tell how serious the increasing infections will be turn out to be.

The numbers and data coming out in the next few days will be "staggering" when compared to other variants, she adds.

jenny you've fucking cheered me right up

 

[blueinsa]

“the next few days”

Back into my hermetically sealed bunker I go then…

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

Dr Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the UK Health Security Agency, has told MPs the Omicron variant "is probably the most significant threat [to public health] since the start of the pandemic".

She adds the world is probably at too early a stage to be able to tell how serious the increasing infections will be turn out to be.

The numbers and data coming out in the next few days will be "staggering" when compared to other variants, she adds.

Is this the same next few days they've been talking about for weeks, or a different next few days?

Maybe we'll find out in the next few days.

 

[blueinsa]

I swear we've been saying we'll find out in the 'next few days' how it could play out for a couple weeks now...

If there is 200k new Omicron infections every day then we should be knowing about it imminently...

Given we are assured it doubles almost everyday, the whole of the UK should have had it by now if you listened to half of the retweets in this subject.

We are now at a point of having to protect the NHS at all costs and it seems restricting and locking away Joe Public is the easiest way for politicians to do it rather than just fucking paying for a world class service which no one seems to want to do or accept?

It has to change and it has to stop.

 

[blueinsa]

“Alter your behaviour”


Jesus Christ.

Ask yourself why behavioural scientists are key in forming policy right now?