Whilst this is definitely in need of discussion, it’s not exclusively an NHS problem.We have been protecting the NHS in winter for years now and long before covid came along.
A grown up discussion is urgently needed now re how we fund/run the NHS because doomsday scenarios and restrictions/lockdowns is not the answer.
You apply your model to previous epidemics.
If your modelling is any good you actual cases get closer to the median prediction for each successive wave.
Your upper quartile represents the outcome under which are 75% of your model's predicted outcomes occur and the lower quartile represents the outcome under which 25% of your model's predicted outcomes fall.
I can see the need for a worst case outcome (say 95%) but all of these outcomes should be in your model.
Only modelling the worst case is a grand folly as it indicates the model is an exercise in crying wolf - so it is ignored by many. But as the story goes the boy who cried wolf can be right very occasionally.
The CFR of covid, let alone omicron when triple jabbed and young and fit is considerably lower than a bout of influenza would be and I’m not eligible for the flu jab every winter. I don’t live in fear of that influenza either.Which could be proven correct or incorrect.
I think it’s potentially dangerous that people are beginning to believe they are now immune to Covid.
Which could be proven correct or incorrect.
I think it’s potentially dangerous that people are beginning to believe they are now immune to Covid.
Whilst this is definitely in need of discussion, it’s not exclusively an NHS problem.
Healthcare systems across Europe are struggling.
Covid has hit them harder than anything they’ve faced in a long time, if at all.
prevent more than 20 life-threatening diseases,Prevents. Deaths.
you’re own post. You didn’t even read it.
Me too. It’s still prudent to be cautious in my opinion.The CFR of covid, let alone omicron when triple jabbed and young and fit is considerably lower than a bout of influenza would be and I’m not eligible for the flu jab every winter. I don’t live in fear of that influenza either.
I shall continue to get whatever jab I’m told I need to have but I am well past being afraid of covid or any of its current variants.
Likewise. You didn't read it.Prevents. Deaths.
you’re own post. You didn’t even read it.
But you won’t be actively seeking to get it, and no doubt trying your best not to.I don’t for one second believe I’m immune after my 3 jabs but I’m happy to think that even infected, it’s going to be a mild illness because the stats tells me that’s the likely scenario. Could it kill me? Of course it could but I’m not going to live my life worrying when it’s so unlikely.
Me too. It’s still prudent to be cautious in my opinion.
I do look after my 94 year old gran too.