Coronavirus (2021) thread

[tonea2003]

early doors but again a consistent picture

 

[SWP's back]

The South African omicron outbreak has been reported as being benign and perhaps it is relatively so but the feature that we need to focus on is the spike in both cases and hospitalisations. I think this wave is going to be much smaller in hospitalisations but rather than being spread out over months they are going to come all at once.

I think we now need to look at London. We have missed the boat in regards to lockdown. In London we are already on the explosive exponential growth phase. Even if you stop all traffic and work, so many people have it now. They will just take it home to their households. The government may lock down nationally but I think it is too late to have a significant effect.

This is data I downloaded for London (NHS web-site, and gov.uk) for hospital admissions, and new reported cases by specimen date.

I don't like the look of these curves. The covid infection go into exponential explosive growth on the 12th December but it looks to me that the hospital admissions are tracking the omicron uptick. The link is not entirely broken. I think that this week the London hospitals are going to feel the effects. The surge will start this week and last for a fortnight. A lockdown would work to flatten the peak but if the peak is below capacity it is pointless. It is too late for London.

I don't think it will be as bad as previous waves but it's going to come all at once. I have no idea how much slack/headroom the London hospitals have to absorb the numbers.

I am carrying on and hoping the Boxing Day football is on but not expecting it to be because the backdrop will be a short-lived emergency and the authorities will be cautious. They probably know its too late already. When it doubles every 1.5 days, you can't be late if you are going into lockdown. We are late. Look at London, gradual rise then bang. It may be the right decision to do nothing if the hospitals can handle the peak. This graph does not tell you what the peak will be. It just hints at an existing link between cases and admissions and shows the wave of infection that has just hit London.

View attachment 32269

Fuck London and their low rate of vaccine uptake. Absolutely no reason to lock down. At present, less than 1 in 20 NHS beds are occupied by someone being treated for covid.

Also, this is in today’s telegraph:

“Analysis by The Telegraph of Britain’s outbreak hotspot of the new variant reveals that the spike in cases is not being followed by a comparable rise in hospital admissions.

According to data collected by the Wellcome Sanger Institute, South Northamptonshire was one of the first areas to suffer a cluster of cases, with more than 926 cases per 100,000 people – the highest in the country.

However, the hospital admission rate at the Northampton General Hospital NHS Trust is not experiencing a similar surge.

As of December 12, its rolling admissions rate was steady at about 11 per cent of the January peak, broadly matching those trends of high cases but lower admissions seen in South Africa.

The area is helped by very high vaccination rates – 83 per cent of people have had a second jab and 50 per cent have had a booster, compared to the national average of 40 per cent.

Vaccination rates are particularly high amongst the over-60s, the most susceptible to serious illness, with over 90 per cent boosted.

However, despite this advantage, it is notable that while South Northamptonshire has seen case rates reach record levels amongst the younger adults, they have actually started to decline amongst the over-60s.

Nationally, the rise in case rates is likely still to prompt an increase in hospitalisations, even if it turns out that the omicron is inherently milder than previous variants. However, this has been disputed by the Imperial College London modelling team.

The NHS is in a better position than last year, however.

On December 14 2020, one in six patients in ward beds had Covid in England.

This year, the number is just one in 20 – a number it has been at fairly consistently since the end of July this year.

Just 12 of 134 trusts have more than one in 10 patients in beds with Covid, mainly in less vaccinated spots including London, Birmingham, Manchester and Northampton.

At this point last year, 100 trusts had that many Covid patients.

It is unclear how much this will increase in the coming weeks, but it is likely that areas where vaccination rates are relatively low, such as London, will see higher pressure on hospitals.

The jury is still out on omicron’s capacity to cause serious illness, but overall the situation allows for more wriggle room than was available last year.”

 

[blueinsa]

Fuck London and their low rate of vaccine uptake. Absolutely no reason to lock down. At present, less than 1 in 20 NHS beds are occupied by someone being treated for covid.

Also, this is in today’s telegraph:

“Analysis by The Telegraph of Britain’s outbreak hotspot of the new variant reveals that the spike in cases is not being followed by a comparable rise in hospital admissions.

According to data collected by the Wellcome Sanger Institute, South Northamptonshire was one of the first areas to suffer a cluster of cases, with more than 926 cases per 100,000 people – the highest in the country.

However, the hospital admission rate at the Northampton General Hospital NHS Trust is not experiencing a similar surge.

As of December 12, its rolling admissions rate was steady at about 11 per cent of the January peak, broadly matching those trends of high cases but lower admissions seen in South Africa.

The area is helped by very high vaccination rates – 83 per cent of people have had a second jab and 50 per cent have had a booster, compared to the national average of 40 per cent.

Vaccination rates are particularly high amongst the over-60s, the most susceptible to serious illness, with over 90 per cent boosted.

However, despite this advantage, it is notable that while South Northamptonshire has seen case rates reach record levels amongst the younger adults, they have actually started to decline amongst the over-60s.

Nationally, the rise in case rates is likely still to prompt an increase in hospitalisations, even if it turns out that the omicron is inherently milder than previous variants. However, this has been disputed by the Imperial College London modelling team.

The NHS is in a better position than last year, however.

On December 14 2020, one in six patients in ward beds had Covid in England.

This year, the number is just one in 20 – a number it has been at fairly consistently since the end of July this year.

Just 12 of 134 trusts have more than one in 10 patients in beds with Covid, mainly in less vaccinated spots including London, Birmingham, Manchester and Northampton.

At this point last year, 100 trusts had that many Covid patients.

It is unclear how much this will increase in the coming weeks, but it is likely that areas where vaccination rates are relatively low, such as London, will see higher pressure on hospitals.

The jury is still out on omicron’s capacity to cause serious illness, but overall the situation allows for more wriggle room than was available last year.”

Some seem very reluctant right now to see and take in the data from around the globe and here at home for some strange reason?

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

I wasn't sure if there was some viral load effect that will prolong it or something. As if it'd be hard to recover if you're constantly breathing in covid air, if that makes sense?

You'd most likely to have been most infectious pre symptom from what I've seen. We just carried on as normal at home. Wife triple whacked, she tested negative every day. Different to your situation, I know, but I doubt you'll be doing yourselves any harm.

 

[Gabriel]

Quite interesting, though perhaps not unexpected, news from Israel that vaccination uptake is low amongst young children.

“The authorities have been concerned because the drive to inoculate children ages five-11 has been proceeding slowly. As of Sunday morning, only 7% of children turning five in 2021 and 13% of those between six and 11 had received at least one shot, out of an eligible population of over one million. The numbers have been especially low in communities from a low socioeconomic status…”

 

[RobMCFC]

The South African omicron outbreak has been reported as being benign and perhaps it is relatively so but the feature that we need to focus on is the spike in both cases and hospitalisations. I think this wave is going to be much smaller in hospitalisations but rather than being spread out over months they are going to come all at once.

That's the way I see it. The news from SA is positive, and if it follows a similar pattern, we should be OK in the medium to long term. Of course there's a Winter in our Northern Eurpoean location to factor in.

But people on here, only a few hours ago, were keen to point out that the case numbers are not doubling like SAGE said they would. This is not correct - Omicron cases have more than doubled every two days for the last three days. This won't continue forever because of the sheer scale of the numbers, but if it carries on even only for the next week, you're looking at 75,000 cases on Tuesday, 150,000 on Thursday and 300,000 by Christmas Day. IF - and that's a big IF - it were to continue even only for a few days into next week, I think you can see where those numbers are heading.

So it's any possible spike in hospitalisations over the next 2-3 weeks that they are worried about.
(Remember, it generally takes 7-10 days after infection for hospitalisation).

 

[twosips]

How long did it take people to get their smell/taste back? Wife has lost hers.

 

[SWP's back]

Some seem very reluctant right now to see and take in the data from around the globe and here at home for some strange reason?

Yeah it’s like they have a blind spot for real world data.

 

[True_Blue69]

Some seem very reluctant right now to see and take in the data from around the globe and here at home for some strange reason?

It’s bizarre isn’t it. Some guy with 400 followers tweeted a doomsday analysis and people were all over it. Pretty much every scientist and doctor from SA and now the majority of level minded experts in the Uk are now saying it doesn’t look bad, in fact it actually looks good. Why are people so reluctant to accept it?

I assume it’s their way of dealing with things by not letting themselves get too optimistic.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

That's the way I see it. The news from SA is positive, and if it follows a similar pattern, we should be OK in the medium to long term. Of course there's a Winter in our Northern Eurpoean location to factor in.

But people on here, only a few hours ago, were keen to point out that the case numbers are not doubling like SAGE said they would. This is not correct - Omicron cases have more than doubled every two days for the last three days. This won't continue forever because of the sheer scale of the numbers, but if it carries on even only for the next week, you're looking at 75,000 cases on Tuesday, 150,000 on Thursday and 300,000 by Christmas Day. IF - and that's a big IF - it were to continue even only for a few days into next week, I think you can see where those numbers are heading.

So it's any possible spike in hospitalisations over the next 2-3 weeks that they are worried about.
(Remember, it generally takes 7-10 days after infection for hospitalisation).

Hospitalisations may or may not spike. The other factor to be taken into account is workforce availability so case number do still probably matter. I know this has been highlighted previously.

To give a very loose and less important comparison. The number of vehicles for parking at City’s home games in the opening months of the season increased by 5% and the available car parking spaces, close to the ground, fell by 20%. There was parking chaos for weeks.

I am hoping there won’t need to be lockdowns / tough restrictions but the people calling the shots have to look at the range of variables. It’s vital they health services are able to sustain the range of care they offer.