Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Marvin]

More SA data.

Still same position:

#Omicron causes less severe disease in SA. 3 possible reasons: 1. High levels of natural immunity 2. Better vax coverage 4 Omicron vs. Delta wave 3. Omicron = less virulent (makes people less sick) We need more data to know the reason

The SA hospitalisation data includes data on oxygenation and ventilation. There are around 1,500 cases in a nation of 60m. That fits lab evidence of a different clinical progression of omicron...not so effective at attacking lung tissue

 

[babyape]

"Frankly, if you're not vaccinated at the moment and you're eligible and you've got no health reason for not being vaccinated, you're not just irresponsible, you're an idiot. "I'm sorry. Truthfully you are."

Tony Blair not mincing his words today

 

[grunge]

Latest Excess death figures from SA ( and last of the year )

Weeks ending.
14th Nov 500 or so
21st Nov 1000 or so.
28th Nov 2000 or so.
5th Dec 2500 or so.
12th Dec 2700 or so.

12th Dec's figures are basically the very start of the big wave + 2 weeks. while obviously not good in terms of people dying its really promising in data terms as there doesn't seem to be any significant growth.

 

[5 Hit Gibbon]

"Frankly, if you're not vaccinated at the moment and you're eligible and you've got no health reason for not being vaccinated, you're not just irresponsible, you're an idiot. "I'm sorry. Truthfully you are."

Tony Blair not mincing his words today

It's not the first time I've seen the words "Tony Blair" & "mincing" in the same sentence.

He's right though in this instance.

 

[Bluewonder]

"Frankly, if you're not vaccinated at the moment and you're eligible and you've got no health reason for not being vaccinated, you're not just irresponsible, you're an idiot. "I'm sorry. Truthfully you are."

Tony Blair not mincing his words today

Don't disagree with him though I'm not sure a war criminal is going to change the minds of those who distrust authority.

 

[Forzacitizens]

"Frankly, if you're not vaccinated at the moment and you're eligible and you've got no health reason for not being vaccinated, you're not just irresponsible, you're an idiot. "I'm sorry. Truthfully you are."

Tony Blair not mincing his words today

He probably has shares in most of the companies producing the vaccine

 

[PragueBlue]

"Frankly, if you're not vaccinated at the moment and you're eligible and you've got no health reason for not being vaccinated, you're not just irresponsible, you're an idiot. "I'm sorry. Truthfully you are."

Tony Blair not mincing his words today

He's spot on there.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Latest Excess death figures from SA ( and last of the year )

Weeks ending.
14th Nov 500 or so
21st Nov 1000 or so.
28th Nov 2000 or so.
5th Dec 2500 or so.
12th Dec 2700 or so.

12th Dec's figures are basically the very start of the big wave + 2 weeks. while obviously not good in terms of people dying its really promising in data terms as there doesn't seem to be any significant growth.

SA population 60 million, so not dissimilar to ours.

Big numbers compared to current uk, but again, like hospitalizations, impossible (for me at least) to translate to any kind of UK projection given the different demographics, vaccination and prior infection in the population.

 

[grunge]

Don't disagree with him though I'm not sure a war criminal is going to change the minds of those who distrust authority.

The best way to get Anti vaxxers to vaccinate it to sell them a vaccine as some sort of Anti Vaccine Vaccine ;)

 

[grunge]

SA population 60 million, so not dissimilar to ours.

Big numbers compared to current uk, but again, like hospitalizations, impossible (for me at least) to translate to any kind of UK projection given the different demographics, vaccination and prior infection in the population.

Agreed Im not able to map anything with the data we have and differing demographics doesn't help. Im just getting washed a long in with a sense of inevitability at this point.

What happens happens. I dont think even a full lockdown will slow omicron enough to get r0 < 1 even if things do go bad.

Edit: That sounds like im being doomsday like, its not really that. just my current mood is that this is gonna be an uncontrollable hit even if its mild its unconrollable with the r0 where it is.