Coronavirus (2021) thread

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roubaixtuesday said:
SA population 60 million, so not dissimilar to ours.

Big numbers compared to current uk, but again, like hospitalizations, impossible (for me at least) to translate to any kind of UK projection given the different demographics, vaccination and prior infection in the population.
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Their previous waves behaved very similarly to ours. Big surge of cases, then deaths followed about twice per year since early 2020… but this time the cases have surged but not the deaths to follow yet and they should be here by now.
 
Marvin said:
Good. I am glad you regard this as good news too. it seems we are all on the same page then. Watch the London hospitalisation data. That is our early warning system. We're all in agreement as to what the current data says. 301 admissions as per 20th Dec and rising but not alarmingly so.

I'm also interested to know when the cases will peak in London. it's not just the daily admissions that count but also how severe they are, and for how long they persist.
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Estimated new admissions to hospital is 227 meaning 74 of the 301 overall London admissions are incidental.
 
Early data from South Africa suggests the Omicron variant could be milder than Delta.

In a study conducted by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), Omicron patients were found to have an 80% lower risk of hospital admission.

For those in hospital, the risk of severe disease appeared to be 30% lower.

The study has not yet been peer-reviewed and the authors have warned people against jumping to conclusions.

It compared South African data on Omicron from October and November with data about Delta between April and November.

"In South Africa, this is the epidemiology: Omicron is behaving in a way that is less severe," said Professor Cheryl Cohen of the NICD, one of the authors.

"Compellingly, together our data really suggest a positive story of a reduced severity of Omicron compared to other variants."
 
Psychedelic Casual said:
It’s their Summer in South Africa and people will be getting more Vitamin D from the Sun, as well as people being out and about more and even indoors people ventilate their homes and workplaces much more (which is why we have a fewer lung illnesses in the Summer).

There are 80% more lung illness hospital admissions in the Winter

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If we can show data that has low hospitalisations with this Omicron variant even here in our Winter, we’ll be onto a flyer.
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Which is why 75% of Flu cases occur in the UK Dec, Jan, Feb and Mar.
But this surfe doesn't seen to be present for Covid in anything like the the same magnitude as it is for Flu which is bad throughout the year. Possibly its down to viral load in cooler indoor spaces and the fact that in previous variants these struck all lung areas at the same time.
Omicron seems to target Upper Respititary Tract more than previous variants (like colds and flu) so maybe it will be worse in winter. We shall see as the data becomes apparent.
 
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Psychedelic Casual said:
It’s their Summer in South Africa and people will be getting more Vitamin D from the Sun, as well as people being out and about more and even indoors people ventilate their homes and workplaces much more (which is why we have a fewer lung illnesses in the Summer).

There are 80% more lung illness hospital admissions in the Winter

View attachment 32478


If we can show data that has low hospitalisations with this Omicron variant even here in our Winter, we’ll be onto a flyer.
Click to expand...
Which is why 75% of Flu cases occur in the UK Dec, Jan, Feb and Mar.
But this rise doesn't seen to be present for Covid in anything like the the same magnitude which is bad throughout the year. Possibly its down to viral load in cooler indoor spaces
 
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