Coronavirus (2021) thread

[ayrshire_blue]

The booster gets us through this wave then we get another vaccine, and that one should be tailor-made for delta, omicron etc. And then we're in the same position as we are with flu. A nasty viral illness that we keep at bay with regular vaccination.

Isn't the difference with flu that these covid mutations are unpredictable though? In that Omicron seemed to take everyone by surprise. Then need to wait 90 days for vaccine to be tweaked and then a few more months for rollout etc? Or is there likely to become a much more timely, streamlined process for something like this to take place causing much more minimal disruption?

 

[Manc in London]

Not if you live in Greater Manchester - it is going like London last week and some astounding numbers today. Pretty much every borough is through the roof.

The lowest Pop score today was up 127. Some are nearer 300. Never seen numbers like these before.

Wigan today would have been a pandemic high for Manchester just last week.

I know these are only cases and milder etc. But these are bound to create pressure on the NHS this next week or two. They are just goimg up and up and doubling exactly as they say every two or three days in Greater Manchester right now.

I suspect GM may even be the epicentre now not London.

The MSOA where I live is now 1354/100k.

It's been high in the borough as a whole for a few weeks. Nearly 5,000 positives in the last week. However, deaths and hospitalisations have not budged for a month.

 

[Len Rum]

Sky reporting that the booster wanes against Omicron after ten weeks.
Think they said 20-30% reduction.
Which raises the question what is the reduction after a longer period say 16 weeks ( about four months) and should we start planning fourth boosters from February?
From what I can see the reduced severity of Omicron could be offset by the greater number of cases and the reduced effectiveness of the booster compared to delta and the fact that it wanes against Omicron ( but not Delta) relatively quickly.
I suppose it all depends on how these competing factors play out against one another.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

On the off chance that people are interested in the modelling, as opposed to looking for reasons to promote their desired narrative, a thoughtful piece from the Institute for Government.

New approach needed to avoid Covid data disputes and modelling misunderstanding | Institute for Government

The reaction to SAGE modelling has again showed up flaws in how science has been used in the pandemic.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

'It’s important, for instance, that modellers publish post-mortems that explain why numbers turned out differently'


Not seen them do this once as yet, and they have had plenty of opportunity have they not.

 

[Marvin]

Isn't the difference with flu that these covid mutations are unpredictable though? In that Omicron seemed to take everyone by surprise. Then need to wait 90 days for vaccine to be tweaked and then a few more months for rollout etc? Or is there likely to become a much more timely, streamlined process for something like this to take place causing much more minimal disruption?

I don't think the process should be any different than with flu. We find what the prevailing Sars-Cov-2 mutations are at any one time and then produce a cocktail of vaccine. I think my last flu vaccine protected against 4 known strains of flu. I think flu is more mutagenic than Sars-Cov-2 but we have a bigger problem than anticipated with Sars-Cov-2 because when it is in immune-compromised hosts it can develop a whole host of mutations, some of which are viable. Thus it moves in leaps and bounds. WHether flu develops like that I don't know. We should also seek to widen our target away from the spike protein and include other targets.

 

[Claytop]

Now there’s a surprise….

Omicron up to 70% less likely to need hospital care

However, a major report showed the protection from catching Covid started to wane 10 weeks after the booster.

www.bbc.co.uk

Just 132 admitted to hospital with the variant, ridiculously low number in comparison to how many cases we assume there’s been.

Yes I know the increased transmission but obviously nothing there to warrant more restrictions.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

I don't think the process should be any different than with flu. We find what the prevailing Sars-Cov-2 mutations are at any one time and then produce a cocktail of vaccine. I think my last flu vaccine protected against 4 known strains of flu. I think flu is more mutagenic than Sars-Cov-2 but we have a bigger problem than anticipated with Sars-Cov-2 because when it is in immune-compromised hosts it can develop a whole host of mutations, some of which are viable. Thus it moves in leaps and bounds. WHether flu develops like that I don't know. We should also seek to widen our target away from the spike protein and include other targets.

Thank you, didn't know how these things worked.

 

[twosips]

Is Twosips dead yet?

If so does his widow want comforting by a real man?

Why? Do you know one? Ha.

Anyway, all good here, still with beautiful wife in tow :)

 

[Tonster]

Sky reporting that the booster wanes against Omicron after ten weeks.
Think they said 20-30% reduction.
Which raises the question what is the reduction after a longer period say 16 weeks ( about four months) and should we start planning fourth boosters from February?
From what I can see the reduced severity of Omicron could be offset by the greater number of cases and the reduced effectiveness of the booster compared to delta and the fact that it wanes against Omicron ( but not Delta) relatively quickly.
I suppose it all depends on how these competing factors play out against one another.

But that waning is against symptomatic infection, protection against serious disease lasts much longer

 

[ayrshire_blue]

But that waning is against symptomatic infection, protection against serious disease lasts much longer

This is my understanding. If we want a vaccine which prevents every really mild infection forever more then its simply just never going to happen. Their job is to prevent serious illness or death, so long as that is maintained for a more prolonged period of time (annually?) then it's all good. Headlines about waning boosters are needless and only serve to encourage fear where it isn't really necessary, and probably discourage some people from actually getting boosters which is extremely counter productive.