Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Rammy Blue]

As far as I understand, and please correct me if I am wrong. A death certificate will record the cause of death whether it is Covid, Cancer or trauma from a bus accident at the time of death. The NHS stats relate to any death within 28 days of diagnosis of Covid . I assume Covid is now a notifiable disease and statisticians correlate the number of people who have been notified as having Covid,and then look at death certificates for those dying within 28 days of receiving that notification. If you believe the two to be identical so be it. I just suggested the two may not be the same.Personally I would prefer to look at the numbers of deaths actually certified as Covid, because if you get better and still die of it four weeks,six weeks later, it is still Covid on the death certificate. If you die of something else, it is recorded as such, like bus

You’ve seen the example given, but I’ll reiterate, as to why there are blurred lines:

Someone with terminal lung cancer, got days to live, gets covid and dies. Covid is on the death certificate as well as lung cancer, which ”column” do they fall within? You could also argue they died from covid because they are so ill with cancer that their immune system is fucked. Not easy.

 

[Berts Neck]

You’ve seen the example given, but I’ll reiterate, as to why there are blurred lines:

Someone with terminal lung cancer, got days to live, gets covid and dies. Covid is on the death certificate as well as lung cancer, which ”column” do they fall within? You could also argue they died from covid because they are so ill with cancer that their immune system is fucked. Not easy.

Rammy, you are so right. A death certificate will have 1a, primary cause of death, say lung cancer, 1b say covid as a secondary factor, and then 2 which may be something like asbestosis. That was the point I was trying to make. If Covid is 1a, 1b or even 2, it is still on the certificate and can be counted as such. But if someone dies of lung cancer, has a positive test, but it is not on the certificate then they are included in the stats.Maybe small numbers,truthfully do not know.

 

[Healdplace]

Just before Christmas, as I reported on here soon after, a member of my family died 'from Covid'.

She was in her 80s with serious asthma and tested positive alongside her daughter who is married to my brothers son. They looked after her. Covid with them was mild. But she ended up in hospital, needed Oxygen (hand held and self administered for a day) but got better and was kept in the Covid ward though clearly over the disease.

She was not even allowed to go home and be looked after by her two family members who caught it same time as her and had by then recovered. They insisted on sorting out a care package before they would discharge her.

After a lot of hassle they agreed a month on to send her home to be with them but in the days before she was discharged she went withdrawn. As it happened, her brother with whom she had been very close. had died (not from Covid) although she was never told as family still were not allowed in.

She did not last two days at home and her death was ascribed to Covid.

Her daughter is so upset by what happened she is challenging how this was handled.

There are very difficult to draw lines and doubtless many hidden tragedies like this 'caused by' Covid even though it might be more than arguable sometimes if Covid was the true cause.

 

[abu13]

Have the all settings figures been released yet?

 

[Manc Born & Bred]

Should give their head a wobble because.....reasons?

Lot of people are looking ahead to 2022, if someone spots something they fancy and want to stick a deposit down on, why the fuck shouldn't they?

Hell, if someone see's something they fancy for this June and they wanna take a punt on it then good for them, I'm sure they are aware of the various eventualities and as long as they book with a reputable operator then the 'risk' is low.

Do you show this much disdain towards people who are booking to see their favourite bands either later this year or next year?

Don’t be an arse, I am obviously not talking about 2022 but the next few months. People talking about going away in April / May which is utter madness especially when they then throw their toys out of the pram when they are told they can’t go.

 

[Manc Born & Bred]

Why?

It’ll be far safer than going to a pub, which no doubt 50% of the population will be doing as soon as the starting gun is fired. It won’t be happening until the rates are low anyway. As long as you have free cancellation, it’s no big deal.

Huge difference isn’t there. Some countries are so far behind with the vaccination program that they probably won’t welcome tourists anywhere regardless of whether they are vaccinated.

 

[Healdplace]

Have the all settings figures been released yet?

You mean today's 678 deaths?

 

[johnnytapia]

Top chart: Deaths in England only, all settings, percentage by age bracket (all under 50s lumped to one group)
Bottom chart: Same data, but not stacked to make 1, with a polynomial trendline.
(by date of death, not reporting, data up to Feb 5th)

Pick the bones out of that!! 80 to 84 and 85 to 89 coming down? over 90s probably staying constant and therefore increasing percent? that might be due to closeness to death and picking up covid in their natural decline? im speculating. hard to tell.

View attachment 10286

View attachment 10287

Surely the over 90s are a much smaller demographic and any deaths will heavily weight their %?

 

[shemnel]

Surely the over 90s are a much smaller demographic and any deaths will heavily weight their %?

Not sure I get you but It's showing all settings deaths by covid, and the age categories that make up that total.

 

[feedthegoat27]

Don’t be an arse, I am obviously not talking about 2022 but the next few months. People talking about going away in April / May which is utter madness especially when they then throw their toys out of the pram when they are told they can’t go.

You said 'anyone booking a holiday needs to give their head a wobble', you probably should've clarified what timeframe you were talking about as many people are looking at 2022 and even 2023 (along with the second half of 2021). Those people clearly don't need to give their head a wobble, nor should they be discouraged if they are happy booking something.

I don't know anyone booking up for April, the odd (ambitious) person for May but more in hope than expectation.

Anyone booking a 'risky' holiday (IE cos the departure date is sooner rather than later) and then complains if it doesn't go ahead is clearly an idiot. I don't know or hang around with people like this but I'm sure they exist!

22nd Feb is when Johnson has said there might be news, but in all honesty I'm not expecting anything to be revealed or confirmed then. I think they would be foolish to start saying dates just yet, leave it until Easter when the picture hopefully should be clearer.

 

[Healdplace]

UK Vaccinations:

Total First doses 13, 509, 108 - 450, 910 yesterday - up from 411, 812 day before

Total Second doses 524, 447 - 4894 yesterday - up from 3161 day before.


England only totals:

First doses 11, 422, 507 - 338, 855 yesterday - up from 311, 653 + 1 (me!) day before.

Second doses 479, 320 - 4092 yesterday - up from 2173 day before.

 

[Tonster]

You said 'anyone booking a holiday needs to give their head a wobble', you probably should've clarified what timeframe you were talking about as many people are looking at 2022 and even 2023 (along with the second half of 2021). Those people clearly don't need to give their head a wobble, nor should they be discouraged if they are happy booking something.

I don't know anyone booking up for April, the odd (ambitious) person for May but more in hope than expectation.

Anyone booking a 'risky' holiday (IE cos the departure date is sooner rather than later) and then complains if it doesn't go ahead is clearly an idiot. I don't know or hang around with people like this but I'm sure they exist!

22nd Feb is when Johnson has said there might be news, but in all honesty I'm not expecting anything to be revealed or confirmed then. I think they would be foolish to start saying dates just yet, leave it until Easter when the picture hopefully should be clearer.

I have a holiday in Lanzarote booked for end May. Moved from May last year. If it goes ahead, great, if not we’ll move it again. Hopefully by then all over 50’s and everyone with underlying conditions will be vaccinated and cases will be back down to last summers levels especially if the vaccines help suppress spread as they appear to. Will then depend on how the other countries are doing.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Source: ONS

This was first lockdown mind you, hopefully they’ve improved since we’ve got used to lockdowns now?

I think we discussed the info on here at the time and it was a bit flawed IIRC, especially since the maths doesn’t match the headline. That’s not to say people haven’t because they have missed care etc. Wasn’t there evidence they people were dying at home instead of hospitals so the place of death was effectively being substituted? I might have got this wrong.

 

[feedthegoat27]

I have a holiday in Lanzarote booked for end May. Moved from May last year. If it goes ahead, great, if not we’ll move it again. Hopefully by then all over 50’s and everyone with underlying conditions will be vaccinated and cases will be back down to last summers levels especially if the vaccines help suppress spread as they appear to. Will then depend on how the other countries are doing.

Yeah I think there is a chance for end of May.

So many variables of course and lots can change very quickly, but a straightforward holiday to the Canaries could still be on the cards in that time.

Hope you can get away, and if not then I hope it's easy for you to shift on further down the line again.

 

[Healdplace]

More good news from England hospital data


All down and total is below 20,000 for first time since 27 December.

19,983 patients - down 943 in day and by 5351 from 25, 334 last Thursday and by 14, 353 since the peak of England hospitalisations across the pandemic at 34, 336 on 18 Jan - day before the peak England hospital deaths of 851 on 19 Jan.

Ventilators also fell by 92 in the day to 2780 - down 495 from 3275 last Thursday and by 956 from the peak of 3736 on 24 January.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

As far as I understand, and please correct me if I am wrong. A death certificate will record the cause of death whether it is Covid, Cancer or trauma from a bus accident at the time of death. The NHS stats relate to any death within 28 days of diagnosis of Covid . I assume Covid is now a notifiable disease and statisticians correlate the number of people who have been notified as having Covid,and then look at death certificates for those dying within 28 days of receiving that notification. If you believe the two to be identical so be it. I just suggested the two may not be the same.Personally I would prefer to look at the numbers of deaths actually certified as Covid, because if you get better and still die of it four weeks,six weeks later, it is still Covid on the death certificate. If you die of something else, it is recorded as such, like bus trauma.

Me too mate and I think the death certification is reflected in the ONS reports rather than the daily Government figures, as other posters have said. Let’s hope we can continue to drive down the number of cases and then the deaths and other serious cases will decline, as they have begun to do so.

 

[mosssideblue]

UK Vaccinations:

Total First doses 13, 509, 108 - 450, 910 yesterday - up from 411, 812 day before

Total Second doses 524, 447 - 4894 yesterday - up from 3161 day before.


England only totals:

First doses 11, 422, 507 - 338, 855 yesterday - up from 311, 653 + 1 (me!) day before.

Second doses 479, 320 - 4092 yesterday - up from 2173 day before.

Bit of a left field question but are the syringes use and dispose, or can they be re sterilised and use again? The numbers involved are mind boggling

 

[Tonster]

Yeah I think there is a chance for end of May.

So many variables of course and lots can change very quickly, but a straightforward holiday to the Canaries could still be on the cards in that time.

Hope you can get away, and if not then I hope it's easy for you to shift on further down the line again.

Not sure I’m up to telling the kids for a fifth time that we’re not going

 

[sky tot]

UK Vaccinations:

Total First doses 13, 509, 108 - 450, 910 yesterday - up from 411, 812 day before

Total Second doses 524, 447 - 4894 yesterday - up from 3161 day before.


England only totals:

First doses 11, 422, 507 - 338, 855 yesterday - up from 311, 653 + 1 (me!) day before.

Second doses 479, 320 - 4092 yesterday - up from 2173 day before.

Brilliant effort from all involved and looks like they will reach their target of vaccinating 15m by mid February

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Source: ONS

This was first lockdown mind you, hopefully they’ve improved since we’ve got used to lockdowns now?

Cheers, appreciated. I think that's a telegraph headline, pay wall for the article. I *think* the actual report us here, but it's completely impenetrable!

DHSC/ONS/GAD/HO: Direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 on excess deaths and morbidity, 15 July 2020

Paper prepared by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC), Office for National Statistics (ONS), Government Actuary’s Department (GAD) and Home Office (HO).

www.gov.uk

Sky report from that

The new report says a reluctance to attend A&E and difficulties accessing medical assistance..

was part of the cause, which I guess isn't so much the lockdown as an impact of being shit scared of catching a deadly virus.

Nothing is simple with this, it seems.