Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
GaudinoMotors said:
Lockdown clearly over in Didsbury. No masks, nobody social distancing, runners for some reason, running through the main high street. Cafe society is back, albeit carrying your cup as an accessory or as if you work at Google.
More important things to worry about, such as your place in the queue for the latest patisserie. (Seriously. Like the Harrods sale.)
Can't wait to move from this pretentious, hypocritical place asap.
Was a nice suburb, now a parody of itself.
Click to expand...
The equivalent streets here in Sheffield are Heeley and Ecclesall Road near the parks, where the young professionals are queueing down the street for flat whites and brownies.

I can't see the problem. They stand well apart, wear masks outside and in, and only go in the cafes one at a time. Keeps the shop staff and them sane.
 
Healdplace said:
It feels illogical but is how this works and why I say in the reports - eg about Trafford - that once you get dow to low numbers there is much further to rise than to fall.

Really percentage falls week to week are the key.

Look at the England hospital data

23, 042 to 17, 694 to 14, 315 are the falls week to week in patient number Saturday 2 weeks ago to last Saturday to yesterday.

Obviously it is falling fast. That much is obvious. But it fell 5348 in week one and 3379 in week two.

Obviously it is slowing down and that looks like by quite a big drop.

But in fact it is only from 23.2% to 19.1% week to week in the term that matters - the proportion of the change not the raw number which tends to deceive us.


North West patient numbers in that same two weeks fell from 3292 to 2631 in the first Sat to Sat data and then to 2071 yesterday

These are falls of 661 first week and 560 last.

So obviously it is slowing?

Um no - actually its increased.

From a 20.1% fall to 21.3%

Taw numbers can easily fool our logic.

And the key thing to take from the above is that England hospital numbers - ALL regions - now including the North West - which was slower to get to this level than some - are falling at about 20% a week.

In mid winter in a pandemic that cannot be spun any way but good.
Click to expand...
I was thinking about a discussion that Chucrhlawton blue was raising yesterday. People were looking at the graphs and at the figures and noticing decreasing falls and worrying about that. It dawned on me this morning that the epidemic can decline at a constant rate and yet produce a flattening curve.

In other words if I start with 1 milllion virus particles and it declines by half in a week then:

Week 0: 1,000,000
Week 1: 500,000
Week 2: 250,000
Week 3: 125,000

And graph virus numbers over time and we get a curve not a straight line.
 
Healdplace said:
And the key thing to take from the above is that England hospital numbers - ALL regions - now including the North West - which was slower to get to this level than some - are falling at about 20% a week.

In mid winter in a pandemic that cannot be spun any way but good.
Click to expand...

Yes, hospital numbers the key. Thanks for your calm data driven assurance, @Healdplace
 
Is lockdown over ? I live in the highest rate area of kent, thanet. Its 16c nice and sunny.

I live in a small village so just did a 4 mile round trip to the petrol station to get milk enough for a week ;).

It's a duel carriageway going to the garage I was over taken by 4 Porsche 911's odd how 4 Porsche 911 owners were on the same stretch of road. All where driving in a group. You could think they had met up and gone for a drive together.

At the garage they was a que of 6 cars waiting to use the car wash.

Also at the garage was a group of about 8 motorbikers

Also at the end of the duel carriageway the police were just getting out or putting away their stinger !

The nice weather comes out and it goes mad yet thanks to all of this I still have to shield for another month.
 
Marvin said:
I was thinking about a discussion that Chucrhlawton blue was raising yesterday. People were looking at the graphs and at the figures and noticing decreasing falls and worrying about that. It dawned on me this morning that the epidemic can decline at a constant rate and yet produce a flattening curve.

In other words if I start with 1 milllion virus particles and it declines by half in a week then:

Week 0: 1,000,000
Week 1: 500,000
Week 2: 250,000
Week 3: 125,000

And graph virus numbers over time and we get a curve not a straight line.
Click to expand...
That's exactly it, Marvin. Obviously when there are only 250,000 particles you can't have a 500,000 decrease as before.
 
Wales data:

16 deaths - was 15 last week

336 cases - was 394 last week

Positivity 3.0% - was 3,2% last week

Weekly Pop 83 - was 83 yesterday - was 95 last week.

Another example here of the slowing of falls

It was 469 two Sundays ago to 394 last week to 336 today is a fall of 75 and then 58 - so a 'clear' slow down.

But in truth the falls are very similar - both in the 15% range.
 
Wales vaccination data:

860, 083 first doses given - 6177 yesterday - was 14, 839 day before. This is the lowest daily number since mid January.

Weekly number carried out is 88. 432

37, 773 second doses given - 5771 yesterday - was 6569 day before.

Weekly number carried out 33.200

So as you see many more second doses being given out this week as they become due but fewer first doses likely due to the Pfizer temporary shortage in supply as they rejig the Belgian factory over a couple of weeks this month so as to increase delivery capacity to Europe.
 
It goes without saying that any suicide is a tragic situation, and I don't doubt there are many suffering mentally to various degrees, but I think the talk of sheer numbers of suicides which are taking place are greatly exaggerated and not doing any favours.
 
Wonder when the first UK data will appear like these Turkish (hee hee!) - Israeli - graphs? We must be nearly at the point where they started doing this?

Will they track both vaccines separately as Israel is only using one. isn't it?

I note the poster here with the links to inside info on AZ has not replied to my post a few days ago - possibly due to the confidentiality.

But there was a story early last week that Boris had been shown data on the AZ real world results and they were similar to Pfizer. And reducing transmissibility.

That would be a big deal if true and I assume it is being held back to let him talk tomorrow in his press conference at 5 pm that will doubtless be discussing his promised plans to get out of restrictions.
 
GaudinoMotors said:
Lockdown clearly over in Didsbury. No masks, nobody social distancing, runners for some reason, running through the main high street. Cafe society is back, albeit carrying your cup as an accessory or as if you work at Google.
More important things to worry about, such as your place in the queue for the latest patisserie. (Seriously. Like the Harrods sale.)
Can't wait to move from this pretentious, hypocritical place asap.
Was a nice suburb, now a parody of itself.
Click to expand...
Makes me piss the locals call it Didsbury "village" it's a suburb of Manchester not a village which is usually defined as being in a "rural" setting.
 
worsleyweb said:
marvin you keep going on about mutation. Of course there is potential. What do we do wait for the entire world to be vaccinated? Once we have vaccinated the over 50s we quite simply have to open up. Speaking to a Cooper again this week, all he is dealing with is suicides and domestics. People are really starting to struggle.
Click to expand...
Should stick to barrels;-)
 
Marvin said:
I was thinking about a discussion that Chucrhlawton blue was raising yesterday. People were looking at the graphs and at the figures and noticing decreasing falls and worrying about that. It dawned on me this morning that the epidemic can decline at a constant rate and yet produce a flattening curve.

In other words if I start with 1 milllion virus particles and it declines by half in a week then:

Week 0: 1,000,000
Week 1: 500,000
Week 2: 250,000
Week 3: 125,000

And graph virus numbers over time and we get a curve not a straight line.
Click to expand...

If you plot this on log axis then you get a straight line.

Ourworldindata, for instance, gives you the option.

You can clearly see the decline is exponential as the line is roughly straight.

ourworldindata.org

COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.
ourworldindata.org ourworldindata.org

Screenshot_20210221-131021_Chrome.jpg
 
GaudinoMotors said:
Lockdown clearly over in Didsbury. No masks, nobody social distancing, runners for some reason, running through the main high street. Cafe society is back, albeit carrying your cup as an accessory or as if you work at Google.
More important things to worry about, such as your place in the queue for the latest patisserie. (Seriously. Like the Harrods sale.)
Can't wait to move from this pretentious, hypocritical place asap.
Was a nice suburb, now a parody of itself.
Click to expand...
I cycled through yesterday and was staggered by the queues for the cafes, patisseries etc. Couldn’t get through the place fast enough.
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Click to expand...

Very interesting and fits what we see in the day to day data.

The most interesting of all is that we are falling faster than Israel.

Yet young compliance with lockdown is lower in Israel than here so this blurs the difference in the fall in cases and patients caused by either lockdown or vaccination.

As we are behind Israel in vaccination impact that potentially bodes really well for where we are heading.

The one thing we have to know is if it is the Pfizer vaccine impact in Israel or if having that and AZ in the UK alters the dynamics in any way. Though I think we hedged bets by accident or design by offering the Pfizer most to the very vulnerable. And over 75s.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top