Coronavirus (2021) thread

[worsleyweb]

We are on the home straight - next month will be a bit scary but the second wave is peaking between now and next two weeks. The further lockdown measures should help and each day more vaccines mean we are closer to the end of this.

Ps - I am just on my walk and spoke to a copper who worked last night. Said they had to attend and break up endless house parties. Absolute wankers some people.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

Whilst I think that everyone (like my uncle) who has had their first dose of the Pfizer vaccine should be given the second shot as planned there are good reasons to increase the gap between first and second doses. Both Pfizer and Oxford give high levels of protection from a single dose so it makes sense to get that protection to the largest number of the most vulnerable as quickly as possible. The evidence for the Oxford vaccine shows that a longer gap between doses greatly increases antibodies and so makes it even more effective. All four home nations chief medical officers are on board with the new strategy and it clearly isn't just a political move.

 

[Marvin]

The MHRA website said the first lot of oxford vaccines will be distributed from UK hospital hubs, something to do with monitoring, maybe this is the 500k.

Second half of the week would see them at GP’s

I really wouldn’t worry about the rollout of the vaccine now, there will be the odd anecdotal story of cancelled appointments, logistic issues, scare stories about knackered batches or shortages of vials and even closed for local breakouts.

Where as big picture the Oxford vaccines going to be ramping up to 2 million a week by mid Jan, more Pfizer is on the way and J&J might be available end of Jan & Feb.

Getting hysterical for clicks is what the press do, they were losing their minds about ventilators early on and it turns out they do more harm than good in a lot of pa

Full countries in lockdown now, sit in and wait for the appointments to roll in for anyone you know who’s vunerable.

Once the over 80’s are done deaths and hospitalisations should drop off a cliff.

I think we'll reach a point when the hospitalisations and deaths will fall signficantly but that might not happen when the epidemic is surging. We've also got to vaccinate the over 75s and shielded population who are very vulnerable. We can hope that when the vaccination rate builds up it will undercut the spike but we have to wait at least a fortnight from vaccination for immunity to build.

 

[journolud]

am setting off for Leighton shortly with the Mrs for our jabs. First time in my life I can remember being excited about a trip to Crewe

 

[BlueAnorak]

Not entirely sure this is a political decision. The medical profession is urging that single doses be given, but the GPs who have to go through the administrative work of contacting and explaining and facing their patients would, understandably, prefer to deliver on their promise. There simply is not the supply to meet demand, so it’s hard to see the double dose regimen lasting.
The politicians have created unrealistic expectations, however, in terms of delivering vaccines, when it has been known that, for a variety of reasons, manufacturers simply cannot meet demand. Looking down the line, one wonders what will happen in 12 weeks if there are insufficient doses to give people the follow-up booster.

It isn't - its from the SAGE brains trust. Led by Whitty and Valance.
From a population statistics point of view they are bang on.
it's a numbers game.
Double the number of people vaccinated gets us closer to the herd immunity figure between 70%-80%. And as one dose will stop patients dying if they catch it.
The chances of catching Covid-19 once inoculated are 9% chance for Pfizer vaccine and and 38% for the Oxford-Astrazeneca one, but one jab prevents serious illness after 9 days.
3m vaccinated a week will get us to heard immunity by the start of April. 4m by Early March.

Chris Whitty moves to head off GPs' rebellion over Pfizer Covid vaccine doses

Chief medical officer tells doctors that 'public will understand and thank us' for administering as many first doses as possible

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[JASR]

We are on the home straight - next month will be a bit scary but the second wave is peaking between now and next two weeks. The further lockdown measures should help and each day more vaccines mean we are closer to the end of this.

Ps - I am just on my walk and spoke to a copper who worked last night. Said they had to attend and break up endless house parties. Absolute wankers some people.

They’ll be the same people saying lockdowns and restrictions don’t and haven’t worked.

the irony.

they haven’t worked due to noncompliance (and allowing international travel with no
‘real’ enforced 14day quarantine)

 

[Dicko69]

We are on the home straight - next month will be a bit scary but the second wave is peaking between now and next two weeks. The further lockdown measures should help and each day more vaccines mean we are closer to the end of this.

Ps - I am just on my walk and spoke to a copper who worked last night. Said they had to attend and break up endless house parties. Absolute wankers some people.

Considering the experts think Jan 5 will start to show the Christmas day gatherings affects, I reckon 2 weeks from now will be the new year's eve parties which will likely be worse again. Its going to be a grim couple of months before hopefully we start to beat this.

 

[unicorn]

It isn't - its from the SAGE brains trust. Led by Whitty and Valance.
From a population statistics point of view they are bang on.
it's a numbers game.
Double the number of people vaccinated gets us closer to the herd immunity figure between 70%-80%. And as one dose will stop patients dying if they catch it.
3m vaccinated a week will get us to heard immunity by the start of April. 4m by Early March.

Chris Whitty moves to head off GPs' rebellion over Pfizer Covid vaccine doses

Chief medical officer tells doctors that 'public will understand and thank us' for administering as many first doses as possible

www.telegraph.co.uk

I'm reassured that the Professors are backing this decision, thanks for that @BlueAnorak

My (relatively minor) problem is having one set of parents still going for the second jab on Sunday while the in-laws have been cancelled and having to explain that divergence in vaccination to scared 80+ folk is a challenge.

 

[Cityfan]

I think this came from the scientific community rather than politicians. It maybe criticised by individual GPs and practises who have to reorganise appointments but I think the rationale came from the medical community. I saw an interview with Professor Sarah Gilbert whose group developed the vaccine and she described it as a pragmatic decision to reach the maximum number of people.

Spot on, I thought they might not be able to do it because the evidence was not available to support it but as it appears it is the decision is absolutely right.

 

[Gabriel]

It isn't - its from the SAGE brains trust. Led by Whitty and Valance.
From a population statistics point of view they are bang on.
it's a numbers game.
Double the number of people vaccinated gets us closer to the herd immunity figure between 70%-80%. And as one dose will stop patients dying if they catch it.
3m vaccinated a week will get us to heard immunity by the start of April. 4m by Early March.

Chris Whitty moves to head off GPs' rebellion over Pfizer Covid vaccine doses

Chief medical officer tells doctors that 'public will understand and thank us' for administering as many first doses as possible

www.telegraph.co.uk

I agree with the principle and think the societal need trumps any GP inconvenience/embarrassment.
Cannot access the article but do wonder whether that number of vaccinations can be achieved in that time. I truly hope so, but Van-Tam did point out the problems that lie ahead (with vials/needles).