Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Tim of the Oak]

I agree with that - AZ may not be able to say "one contract before the other", as that would have to be worded into the contracts at the outset (and then there would be less strength to any opinion).

I can certainly see that the EU have no real option but to ask "if you've reduced production, have you reduced supply evenly to all of your recipients, or just to us?"
That question seems perfectly reasonable to pose.

What happens afterwards is more unclear. My understanding is that the current position is that the EU may ask for details of where EU-made vaccine has been sent, and nothing more.

I agree. The Vaccines Minister said that vaccine nationalism was counter productive (on this morning’s breakfast TV).

 

[Claytop]

There's something that has been bugging me about the vaccines for the past couple of weeks and that's basically how did we end up with so many types? At the start of the pandemic, and certainly in the first few months, the scientific community made great play of the fact they were all working together with one shared goal of finding a vaccine and saving the world. There was talk of collaboration across borders and sharing knowledge and breakthroughs. Companies talked of working together and sharing facilities etc. So how have we ended up with at least half a dozen different types of vaccine all hitting the market at different times, costing different amounts to produce and seemingly with different efficacy rates?
At what point did collaboration end and the cold hard reality of commercialism kick in?

Well the more vaccines the bigger potential than one would work. If everyone worked on one and it turned out to not to work we’d be in a bit of a situation.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Is it the case that AZ can produce enough within the UK to supply all of its needs at the required speed, or is it the case that AZ can supply the UK's needs but only at a slower pace? Zahawi initially sounded a little careful in connecting supply to the February target, but when asked about supply again, he sounded more confident. Time will tell.

Supply was always going to be a problem around the world, and until there's more joined-up thinking by all countries, we're going to have more such problems.

Zahawi on with Piers Morgan and Susannah shortly, let’s see if he’s polished up his comments.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

There's something that has been bugging me about the vaccines for the past couple of weeks and that's basically how did we end up with so many types? At the start of the pandemic, and certainly in the first few months, the scientific community made great play of the fact they were all working together with one shared goal of finding a vaccine and saving the world. There was talk of collaboration across borders and sharing knowledge and breakthroughs. Companies talked of working together and sharing facilities etc. So how have we ended up with at least half a dozen different types of vaccine all hitting the market at different times, costing different amounts to produce and seemingly with different efficacy rates?
At what point did collaboration end and the cold hard reality of commercialism kick in?

Both, is the answer, I think.

Most big pharma will have been looking and tinkering with the idea (the mRNA concept has been developed over a number of years). I expect that they are sharing some information, whether directly or by published paper.

I suspect that they have worked together by not overlapping, and pursuing separate paths to try to work. There is no one route, so having multiple routes makes sense.

You'll have seen the discussions about whether one vaccine will still cover variants - if Vaccine1 doesn't work against StrainA, then you need the other vaccines which do work against StrainA in production.

I think at the moment it's a bit early for many of the routes to be abandoned - it was only yesterday (I think) that Merck abandoned their research, and it will be very interesting to see if they take on a production licence.

 

[shemnel]

What is the latest evidence re primary school children and spreading covid? are they still considered to be lower risk than adult to adult?

 

[Gabriel]

If Moderna creates a 'booster' for use in the autumn, so as to combat new variants, would that work independently for everyone, or would people need to have had the initial vaccine? The UK apparently has 17 million of the initial on order but is not expected to take delivery until March.

 

[Claytop]

expert reaction to reports from Germany that the Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine has 8% efficacy in over 65s | Science Media Centre

Pretty much what posted last night by @roubaixtuesday

Prof Stephen Evans, Professor of Pharmacoepidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said:


“For example, it could be that a lower confidence interval was calculated on very preliminary data based on very few cases with a very wide interval, then a very low value of efficacy would be found, which would be misleading. The authors of The Lancet paper say additional data will become available and it will be best to rely on those data.”

 

[Bluemoon dan]

Well the more vaccines the bigger potential than one would work. If everyone worked on one and it turned out to not to work we’d be in a bit of a situation.

A fair point but I thought the idea was they were all working together to find one that did definitely work then every company could turn production to manufacturing the same product at the same spec all across the world.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Is it the case that AZ can produce enough within the UK to supply all of its needs at the required speed, or is it the case that AZ can supply the UK's needs but only at a slower pace? Zahawi initially sounded a little careful in connecting supply to the February target, but when asked about supply again, he sounded more confident. Time will tell.

Supply was always going to be a problem around the world, and until there's more joined-up thinking by all countries, we're going to have more such problems.

I think it's unclear. I doubt Zahawi would want to announce it anyway.

If AZ have e.g. 50 million doses and have promised 60 million doses, then AZ have a problem to solve. It seems that most of the AZ vaccine is made in the UK. As far as I can tell, this is the situation they've got into (numbers being arbitrary, obviously).

Whether a %age of UK supply is reallocated to the EU is politics and diplomacy!

 

[BlueAnorak]

It surely wouldn't make sense to approve it at all if efficacy is only 8%? The Sanofi/GSK vaccine has had to start the whole trial process again as it was shown to be effective for younger age groups but far less for older groups. You can't imagine that one was only 8% either.

It probably is 8% after 1 day.