Coronavirus (2021) thread

[AlgarveBlu]

So the EU are reported to be warning Pfizer again. This might be legitimate. However, I struggle to believe so when several countries in mainland Europe have big stockpiles of AZ /Oxford vaccines and Pfizer escape any censure, even though Germany contributed to the development of the BioNtech jab.

I hope the vaccine roll out programmes in the rest of Europe (and across the globe) are accelerated and the populations get the protection they need.

Nobody doubts the EU have had an epic fail in the whole vaccine saga from the very beginning but we should be careful not to echo too many daily mail/express headlines and misusing the word stockpiles - in Portugal their stockpile is literally enough to cover the second dose for the over 80s that have had their first jab and high risk which is on the 3 week regime other lower risk categories are on 6 weeks on the basis of future deliveries coming in on time

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Nobody doubts the EU have had an epic fail in the whole vaccine saga from the very beginning but we should be careful not to echo too many daily mail/express headlines and misusing the word stockpiles - in Portugal their stockpile is literally enough to cover the second dose for the over 80s that have had their first jab and high risk which is on the 3 week regime other lower risk categories are on 6 weeks on the basis of future deliveries coming in on time

I got most of my information from a mate in the Netherlands who probably hadn’t heard of the Mail or the Express. He’s a reasonable guy who works in social care. That said, it’s pretty evident that there is a level of discrimination and bullying against AZ that goes beyond quantities of vaccines delivered.

We aren’t getting through this until most of Europe and probably the world are vaccinated so I would like to see vaccine supplies ramped up.

 

[worsleyweb]

I am anti Eu and glad we left but once we have done our over 50s I would have no issue sharing our vaccines even if their incompetence has caused it. A healthy 30 year old getting a vaccine here if a 70 year old Italian is still waiting is wrong.

 

[Gabriel]

If people are not being vaccinated then stockpiling is still going on mate, although the quantities are relatively low. There would be more pressure on the vaccine suppliers if the stocks had run dry, iMHO. Hopefully, availability of vaccines can be ramped up soon but it’s essential there is regulatory approval in the Countries that have put the block on the AZ vaccine and gone against the EMA.

it would be good to her from the EU about efforts to get bigger supplies from Pfizer too. Maybe that’s happening but we just aren’t hearing about it.

Spoken to quite a few doctors and there's no problem with demand, simply supplies of the vaccines. Some will be held to guarantee the second dose, but what's coming in is going in arms.

The Sanofi production of the Pfizer vaccine will help, but that will not be arriving until the summer.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

I am anti Eu and glad we left but once we have done our over 50s I would have no issue sharing our vaccines even if their incompetence has caused it. A healthy 30 year old getting a vaccine here if a 70 year old Italian is still waiting.

Yes I agree with sharing the vaccines more once the over 50s and clinically vulnerable are vaccinated. There also needs to be pressure applied on the States to do likewise.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

I am anti Eu and glad we left but once we have done our over 50s I would have no issue sharing our vaccines even if their incompetence has caused it. A healthy 30 year old getting a vaccine here if a 70 year old Italian is still waiting.

both doses i assume? I feel the same, once everyone over 50 plus the vulnerable are vaccinated with both doses we should be sharing with Europe as much as possible.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Spoken to quite a few doctors and there's no problem with demand, simply supplies of the vaccines. Some will be held to guarantee the second dose, but what's coming in is going in arms.

The Sanofi production of the Pfizer vaccine will help, but that will not be arriving until the summer.

I agree the problem is with supply. That becomes a bit irrelevant in relation to the AZ vaccine if a Country bans it. I know the ideal position would be to boost stocks in advance of regulatory clearance but that’s not been happening because the U.K. contract gives priority and AZ can see the vaccines will get used here.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

All about keeping the companies on their toes, presumably.

There does seem to be a belief amongst politicians that shouting louder at companies, police raids on their premises and the like is the pressure required to get them off their fat arses and make more vaccines.

The reality, on the other hand, is that these people have been working flat out for 12 months to scale up this production in a way never thought to be remotely possible before.

Nobody who has the slightest passing knowledge of the subject is at all surprised that there have been some problems with supply. Indeed, it's little short of a miracle that Pfizer and AZ, and Moderna to a lesser extent, have delivered what they already have to UK and EU.

 

[inbetween]

I agree the problem is with supply. That becomes a bit irrelevant in relation to the AZ vaccine if a Country bans it. I know the ideal position would be to boost stocks in advance of regulatory clearance but that’s not been happening because the U.K. contract gives priority and AZ can see the vaccines will get used here.

The interesting thing on Europe is the US are due to start to receive their AZ orders in April, will the EU ban the export of those too? If so then I can see that really kicking off because it will put a thorn in Bidens plan for 100% vaccination by the end of May.

Either way, when you look at the graph below you can see why there are supply issues. The AZ vaccine is the hottest ticket in town.

 

[Gabriel]

I agree the problem is with supply. That becomes a bit irrelevant in relation to the AZ vaccine if a Country bans it. I know the ideal position would be to boost stocks in advance of regulatory clearance but that’s not been happening because the U.K. contract gives priority and AZ can see the vaccines will get used here.

Certain EU countries briefly placed moratoria on its use, but the overwhelming majority, including those with the largest populations, have subsequently resumed its use.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

I am anti Eu and glad we left but once we have done our over 50s I would have no issue sharing our vaccines even if their incompetence has caused it. A healthy 30 year old getting a vaccine here if a 70 year old Italian is still waiting.

This is spot on and you can extend that further to the WHO covax scheme - was sad to hear that the millions of doses that the serum institute in India that was earmarked for developing countries was being held back for local use but hey, I understand why they feel they have to do that. This pandemic will be much quicker to eradicate/control for all of us to get back to normality if their was a targeted global roll out. We will by the end of summer have global pockets of vaccinated people standing on the watchtower waiting for a Kenyan, Mongolian or Albanian variant to breach their defences.

One good thing to come out of the EU mishandling of this is that they have kickstarted with urgency and on a large scale the creation of additional factory sites across the EU for the production of future vaccines for the whole supply chain and mass diagnostic kits for local and global distribution. The future is at least bright.

 

[Gabriel]

There does seem to be a belief amongst politicians that shouting louder at companies, police raids on their premises and the like is the pressure required to get them off their fat arses and make more vaccines.

The reality, on the other hand, is that these people have been working flat out for 12 months to scale up this production in a way never thought to be remotely possible before.

Nobody who has the slightest passing knowledge of the subject is at all surprised that there have been some problems with supply. Indeed, it's little short of a miracle that Pfizer and AZ, and Moderna to a lesser extent, have delivered what they already have to UK and EU.

I think last night's decision by the EU Member States had more of an eye to the future; they realize that they need more facilities on the continent if/when they need a booster. They'll also be stricter with companies in regard supply.
Had India/China approved all of these vaccinations, there would have been even more demand.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Certain EU countries briefly placed moratoria on its use, but the overwhelming majority, including those with the largest populations, have subsequently resumed its use.

Thanks Gabriel. I hope there is a fairer distribution of the vaccines for the health of all the nations in future . We need to get through our 2nd doses (or the first jabs are effectively wasted) and then try to do more to help the most vulnerable in other Countries. That’s mainly dependant on the vaccine suppliers rather than the U.K. Government though.

We should be better than Ursula von der Leyen in this regard (and I wanted us to stay in the EU because I knew our trade would be strangled if we left).

 

[meltonblue]

The indemnity may have kicked in then but assurances were given when scientists / Pharma and venture capitalists were round the table with Kate Bingham early in the year. A CEO of a pharma company confirmed this on BBC Radio 5 Live. Offering the indemnity after the contracts would have been close to pointless.

There’s potential cost and speed benefits to it still as long as it’s pre rollout. I thought the indemnity in the initial contract was related to the manufacturers rather than the pharmaceutical companies - that got extended to cover all in September.

Not seen the contract fully though so they may well have hedged their bets.

 

[everythingchangesbutblue]

Just had my antibody results in 6 wks after 1st dose and it said no presence of antibodies detected. I'm immune suppressed so it wasn't guaranteed. It's absolute shattered me tbh. I've been stuck in the flat for 13 month because of this pandemic and another year before that because of an allergic reaction to a prescribed tablet. I've only been to hospitals in all that time. I live with someone who is also clinically extremely vulnerable so i can't just say fuck it in case i bring it back to her. I'm completely down atm, i'd put all my hopes into the vaccine. I can't do another year.

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Just had my antibody results in 6 wks after 1st dose and it said no presence of antibodies detected. I'm immune suppresse so it wasn't guaranteed. It's absolute shattered me tbh. I've been stuck in the flat for 13 month because of this pandemic and another year before that because of an allergic reaction to a prescribed tablet. I've only been to hospitals in all that time. I live with someone who is also clinically extremely vulnerable so i can't just say fuck it in case i bring it back to her. I'm completely down atm, i'd put all my hopes into the vaccine. I can't do another year.

I'm genuinely sorry to hear that. Will they be able to offer you a different vaccine to hopefully get a better response ?

 

[blue b4 the moon]

Just had my antibody results in 6 wks after 1st dose and it said no presence of antibodies detected. I'm immune suppressed so it wasn't guaranteed. It's absolute shattered me tbh. I've been stuck in the flat for 13 month because of this pandemic and another year before that because of an allergic reaction to a prescribed tablet. I've only been to hospitals in all that time. I live with someone who is also clinically extremely vulnerable so i can't just say fuck it in case i bring it back to her. I'm completely down atm, i'd put all my hopes into the vaccine. I can't do another year.

Sorry bud, as per the above vaccines all work slightly differently hopefully they'll be able to sort you out once some of the others come on the market.

 

[Manc in London]

both doses i assume? I feel the same, once everyone over 50 plus the vulnerable are vaccinated with both doses we should be sharing with Europe as much as possible.

I don't think it can be as simple as that.

Using '50 or over' and the 'over 50s' as a cut-off is a tad arbitrary. Are those aged 49 significantly less likely to die than a 50 year old?

In some parts of the country there are people in their 40s (no underlying conditions) who have been vaccinated. Those who are in their 40s who happen to live in a different area would then, to all intents and purposes, be told: "tough you don't have the right postcode so you miss out". Is that fair?

For reference, between end of June 2020 and end of January 2021, 962 people in their 40s died with Covid19 and 2,995 people in their 50s passed. I don't have the data for those aged 50 and 49 but I would imagine that it is very similar.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Just had my antibody results in 6 wks after 1st dose and it said no presence of antibodies detected. I'm immune suppressed so it wasn't guaranteed. It's absolute shattered me tbh. I've been stuck in the flat for 13 month because of this pandemic and another year before that because of an allergic reaction to a prescribed tablet. I've only been to hospitals in all that time. I live with someone who is also clinically extremely vulnerable so i can't just say fuck it in case i bring it back to her. I'm completely down atm, i'd put all my hopes into the vaccine. I can't do another year.

Very sorry to hear that.

I've no idea how likely the second dose is to protect you, or what, if any degree of protection you might have despite the negative test.

I hope those arguing that allowing the virus to spread now the most vulnerable have been vaccinated take due note.

The light at the end of the tunnel is enough people getting vaccinated plus a cautious opening up means the prevalence being minimal making your risk low.

 

[blueparrot]

I don't think it can be as simple as that.

Using '50 or over' and the 'over 50s' as a cut-off is a tad arbitrary. Are those aged 49 significantly less likely to die than a 50 year old?

In some parts of the country there are people in their 40s (no underlying conditions) who have been vaccinated. Those who are in their 40s who happen to live in a different area would then, to all intents and purposes, be told: "tough you don't have the right postcode so you miss out". Is that fair?

For reference, between end of June 2020 and end of January 2021, 962 people in their 40s died with Covid19 and 2,995 people in their 50s passed. I don't have the data for those aged 50 and 49 but I would imagine that it is very similar.

I agree, but are those under 50 that have died been those with other conditions, if so they will also have been vaccinated as part of group 6. Scottish figures but UK will be similar 30% of 40-49 21% of 30-39 and 13% of 18-29 have been done as part of group 6 vaccinations.