Coronavirus (2021) thread

[kaz7]

As with every virus.

We are not talking about any old virus

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I came across this yesterday which has an account for how the variant developed. I didn't follow up on the source it references to see how believable it is.

Matt Ridley Blog

Matt Ridley is a popular science writer.

He's also a hereditary peer on the hard right libertarian wing of the Tory party. He was chair of Northern Rock pre financial crisis, so his views on risk management should be taken with a pinch of salt, to put it very mildly. He's a long history of scientific contrarianism, most notably on climate change. This may or may not be related to his owning a coal mine.

I promise you I'm not making this up.

 

[Healdplace]

On this number to get herd immunity it is worth looking at how the boroughs in GM that have been the lowest throughout the pandemic - Stockport and Trafford - both have rocketed in recent weeks (possibly via the new variant being present and/or other factors like Trafford Centre Christmas shopping).

Whereas the two most impacted in the second wave from August on - Wigan and Bolton - are now up there with relatively better numbers.

Oldham and Rochdale who had major outbreaks as well and were top of the UK tree in the autumn are also now doing better than the ones who had low cases all through.

You have to wonder if this is due to a self limiting factor starting to show in that the potential numbers most susceptible to catching it might be lower in those once high areas and higher in areas that had previously coped with relatively low case numbers.

The full answer will be more complicated but with those London boroughs I posted about earlier returning 25% positivity ratings in the week pre Christmas they must be candidates to watch and see if they achieve a natural self limiting point.

 

[Bluesince1979]

Furlough I presume so people dont actually go to work, plus school closures

Apart from the 3m that dont receive ANY furlough

 

[Healdplace]

Why are Liverpool and Wirral now going through the roof after being low for ages whereas Manchester which was high in the autumn is now doing much better?

These are all interesting questions real scientists are surely asking.

But I suspect they might be connected to levels of saturation within an outbreak.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

On this number to get herd immunity it is worth looking at how the boroughs in GM that have been the lowest throughout the pandemic - Stockport and Trafford - both have rocketed in recent weeks (possibly via the new variant being present and/or other factors like Trafford Centre Christmas shopping).

Whereas the two most impacted in the second wave from August on - Wigan and Bolton - are now up there with relatively better numbers.

Oldham and Rochdale who had major outbreaks as well and were top of the UK tree in the autumn are also now doing better than the ones who had low cases all through.

You have to wonder if this is due to a self limiting factor starting to show in that the potential numbers most susceptible to catching it might be lower in those once high areas and higher in areas that had previously coped with relatively low case numbers.

The full answer will be more complicated but with those London boroughs I posted about area returning 25% positivity ratings they must be candidates to watch and see if they achieve a natural self limiting point.

I can only comment on Oldham and that the majority or certainly most of the explosion was in the poorer areas of town where house 'over crowding' is known to be prevalent.

If that is relevant only time will tell but assuming it's been rife in those parts could be a reason for the now lower figures being produced here.

 

[kaz7]

Pfizer just saying there are not any supply issues and what was agreed with the uk has been delivered and will continue to be

Someone in our govs nose has just grown...again

 

[Gabriel]

Pfizer just saying there are not any supply issues and what was agreed with the uk has been delivered and will continue to be

Someone in our govs nose has just grown...again

There's a demand issue.

 

[Healdplace]

So total cases so far from the three nations without England is 8477.

So even noting that there are some two day totals in there this is a three nations record - with the caveat it was more when Wales added nearly a week's data in one go after the computer system was impacted during an update and lab testing breakdown.

If England comes close to its numbers of late today we might top 60,000 cases today.

And still not in lockdown. And one of the worst impacted areas Merseyside not even in tier 4.

 

[Healdplace]

Deaths without Scotland as they are not reporting them until Tuesday or any to come out of hospital settings for England today are : - 479.

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v TODAY:- 393 v 482 v 216 (Xmas) v 479 TODAY (New Yr)

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

Some vaccinated staff at my daughters place have tested positive. Although they are showing as negative with the fast test an have no symptoms. Would the lab test be detecting traces in the vaccine, maybe?

 

[Healdplace]

The top 10 watch areas for who should be in tier 4 based on cases just released,

FOUR of them are in Merseyside. Wirral, Knowsley, Sefton and Liverpool. And a fifth is Halton.

As obvious for days now so no surprise in here no doubt.

The other 5 are three in North Yorkshire (York, Hambleton and Richmond).

Another is near Bristol (North Somerset)

And the highest infection rate of all not in tier 4 is Bromsgrove in the West Midlands.

It would seem this new infectious strain is pretty much conquering the nation.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Well the Civil Service is the structure of the UK government. The NHS is the same in managerial structure.
Top-down command and control structures. Totally useless for fighting a pandemic where distributed tactical decision making is required.

I agree in part with what you say but the reality is more complex. For example, ownership of decision making at Trust level has been a key barrier to eg the Nightingales working. Also, Ministers and their friend Dido deciding to only devolve a small fraction of the track and trace budget to local level probably undermined T&T. There will be plenty of time to look at that in the inquiry.

Nobody in the U.K. has had all the answers. That said, few Countries were ignorant enough to believe herd immunity could be achieved without vaccines

 

[hammocity]

I can only comment on Oldham and that the majority or certainly most of the explosion was in the poorer areas of town where house 'over crowding' is known to be prevalent.

If that is relevant only time will tell but assuming it's been rife in those parts could be a reason for the now lower figures being produced here.

From the behaviour I have observed in Oldham there's a very specific community that broke many of the lock down rules, it's not worth getting a ban by naming, elephant in the room.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Why are Liverpool and Wirral now going through the roof after being low for ages whereas Manchester which was high in the autumn is now doing much better?

These are all interesting questions real scientists are surely asking.

But I suspect they might be connected to levels of saturation within an outbreak.

Their pubs and restaurants were open until 30th Dec.

 

[Healdplace]

445 all settings deaths. Out of hospital will be low at weekend.

Looks better than it is this

57, 725 cases.

Could have been worse.

49, 248 from England - 1498 down on yesterday.

No testing numbers as there never are from England over the weekend.

 

[Keith Moncrieff]

Royal Volunteer Service are looking for people who are willing to help as Steward Volunteers :

The fight back against COVID-19 is underway and the NHS has begun what will be the largest vaccination programme in its history, and you could be part of the team that helps to protect millions of people.
Over the coming days and weeks even more vaccination services will be set up to enable the NHS to vaccinate as many people as possible, safely and quickly.

To help the NHS with this huge and important task, we are introducing a new NHS Volunteer Responder Steward Volunteer (COVID-19 vaccinations) role. As an existing NHS Volunteer Responder, we’re pleased to be able to invite you to apply for this role and join the team. (Please note: This is separate to the St John Ambulance clinical roles in the COVID-19 vaccination programme which you may have heard about.)

You are asked to commit to 2 sessions per month lasting 6 hours each

I’ve volunteered

 

[Cityfan]

Some vaccinated staff at my daughters place have tested positive. Although they are showing as negative with the fast test an have no symptoms. Would the lab test be detecting traces in the vaccine, maybe?

Shouldn't do I would have thought.
The PCR test is a test for RNA and whereas the vaccine contains RNA similar to viral RNA it is injected straight into the muscle and will be fairly rapidly broked down there and it would not be transported to the nose or throat.


May well be infection with just local reproduction in the nose and the vaccine is working fairly well hence no systemic symptoms

 

[twosips]

Some vaccinated staff at my daughters place have tested positive. Although they are showing as negative with the fast test an have no symptoms. Would the lab test be detecting traces in the vaccine, maybe?

I'm gonna guess that's normal either way given it doesn't stop people from catching it. Just prevents severe illness right?

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Shouldn't do I would have thought.
The PCR test is a test for RNA and whereas the vaccine contains RNA similar to viral RNA it is injected straight into the muscle and will be fairly rapidly broked down there and it would not be transported to the nose or throat.


May well be infection with just local reproduction in the nose and the vaccine is working fairly well hence no systemic symptoms

Also the vaccines are only RNA of the spike protein not the pathogenic part.