Healdplace
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 12 May 2013
- Messages
- 15,985
I think that is a reasonable position to adopt and day to day I agree is always subject to testing vagaries that taking a longer term view as I am here smooths out.To be honest, I’m not sure individual borough stats mean that much any more. Not to say don’t stop posting the updates, but I just don’t think borough specific analysis makes much difference now. We’ve seen the whole of Merseyside get twatted because of being in lower tiers, now we are seeing GM catch up because lockdown is not strict enough with the new variant.
From that wider view it seems very unusual that the three lowest scorers become the three highest scores consistently in quick speed.
In fact GM officials were asking Hancock for two of these three boroughs (Stockport and Trafford) to be kept out of tier 4 less than a month ago. He rightly said no.
And obviously nobody will be asking that now.
But it shows the rapidity of change.
In those 3 weeks since just before Christmas Stockport has risen over 300 Pop Score Points from just 133. Then second best in GM (now third worst). And Trafford a very similar rise from 168 by about 300 up. Wigan has done even worse going from 155 to nearly 500.
These are not day to day fluctuations but very clear indicators of trends as to which areas are in trouble. That is why the government use Weekly Pop numbers to decide local measures not day to day case numbers.
Manchester - despite posting huge case numbers in recent days far above these boroughs - has not gone up quite as badly.
And borough like Oldham that were top of the government watch lists and the main reason GM stayed in restrictions much of the past 6 months are now up there with the best in GM scoring modest numbers.
The drivers of the escalating numbers have changed significantly over the past 3 weeks and I would think someone would be asking why.