Coronavirus (2021) thread
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i8rags
Well-Known Member
Yeah sorry, I’m on about the current situation, the new strain, new strains around the globe, the higher mortality rate of new strain, a vaccine programme that appears to be outstanding.
The uk thing drives me crazy, it’s four countries as we know 3 governed by themselves but the stats for uk are lobbed in together like it’s all English politics to be blamed. Obviously the longer picture of covid has been littered with errors.
i8rags
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Almost exactly what I’ll be doing but swap bike ride for red wine
Healdplace
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These new variants are not a bad thing because the more they happen the faster we progress on the path to equilibrium between virus and humanity living together.
Once you have a global pandemic like this eradication is not happening. Living with it forever in a manageable way we do with many other viruses is the consequence.
We fight back with vaccines. And keep changing them. The virus mutates and the ones that have an edge proliferate. Just as with a dinosaur like a brontosaurus and a giraffe have zero genetic link and are millions of years apart but both developed long necks because it helped them reach tree tops and that 'edge' became dominant and all the other versions were made useless once that happened. A giraffe with a short neck would not survive.
The optimum for this virus is infecting lots and not killing the hosts off. So a super infective low mortality balance is likely the ultimate goal for both the evolution of the virus and us.
Because we can live with that permanently - as we are going to have to do now. And vaccinate and protect the vulnerable annually with updated jabs like we do for flu.
There will still be Covid deaths as there are flu deaths. And some years it will be worse than others as we are behind the curve (we base our flu vaccines on what happens in Australia in their Winter and if there is mutation after that we miss it). But we will regard Covid as we do flu.
The end game here is not going back to how we were on New Years Day 2020. The world never will. It is accepting Covid as a controllable disease that we can mitigate and stop spreading by perfecting local lockdowns better than any we have had so far. We may all be having regular Covid tests for years I suspect. Especially if travelling.
But hopefully the virus will stabilise with a variant that infects but kills rarely as that is its ultimate best parity with us. And we can moderate its impact via vaccines and medicines. And vaccinating the nation annually likely won't happen, Just the vulnerable. Because its too late to stop this now and we may need people still catching it so the virus is not forced to come up with new entry paths such as infecting our livestock.
The world has changed for ever. But the new normal will within the year not be that different from the old one hopefully. And these new variants may get us there faster.
However the big consequence is that this has transformed medicine and international cooperation and new science emerging from it may save more lives than the virus has claimed by being able to mitigate other killer diseases.
And more important than all this is that the world MUST have an international congress and agree protocols for rapid action when the next pandemic happens.
Because it will. And we have been pretty lucky to have got to now after such a long gap since the last one. If we do not take major steps it will not be 100 years before this happens again. It may not even be ten.
Once you have a global pandemic like this eradication is not happening. Living with it forever in a manageable way we do with many other viruses is the consequence.
We fight back with vaccines. And keep changing them. The virus mutates and the ones that have an edge proliferate. Just as with a dinosaur like a brontosaurus and a giraffe have zero genetic link and are millions of years apart but both developed long necks because it helped them reach tree tops and that 'edge' became dominant and all the other versions were made useless once that happened. A giraffe with a short neck would not survive.
The optimum for this virus is infecting lots and not killing the hosts off. So a super infective low mortality balance is likely the ultimate goal for both the evolution of the virus and us.
Because we can live with that permanently - as we are going to have to do now. And vaccinate and protect the vulnerable annually with updated jabs like we do for flu.
There will still be Covid deaths as there are flu deaths. And some years it will be worse than others as we are behind the curve (we base our flu vaccines on what happens in Australia in their Winter and if there is mutation after that we miss it). But we will regard Covid as we do flu.
The end game here is not going back to how we were on New Years Day 2020. The world never will. It is accepting Covid as a controllable disease that we can mitigate and stop spreading by perfecting local lockdowns better than any we have had so far. We may all be having regular Covid tests for years I suspect. Especially if travelling.
But hopefully the virus will stabilise with a variant that infects but kills rarely as that is its ultimate best parity with us. And we can moderate its impact via vaccines and medicines. And vaccinating the nation annually likely won't happen, Just the vulnerable. Because its too late to stop this now and we may need people still catching it so the virus is not forced to come up with new entry paths such as infecting our livestock.
The world has changed for ever. But the new normal will within the year not be that different from the old one hopefully. And these new variants may get us there faster.
However the big consequence is that this has transformed medicine and international cooperation and new science emerging from it may save more lives than the virus has claimed by being able to mitigate other killer diseases.
And more important than all this is that the world MUST have an international congress and agree protocols for rapid action when the next pandemic happens.
Because it will. And we have been pretty lucky to have got to now after such a long gap since the last one. If we do not take major steps it will not be 100 years before this happens again. It may not even be ten.
PragueBlue
Well-Known Member
Schools are operating as normally? That surprises me as I read in another post that they were hoping to get kids back to school after Easter. If they are still open as normal, then it's madness.
Gabriel
Well-Known Member
I think the U.K. will be back to ‘summer 2020’ normal by this summer, but it may be 2022 or even 2023 before it’s back to 2019 normal. Countries are not moving in lockstep, so it will take much longer before normality is reached, and there will be many differences, too.
Healdplace
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Wales update:
27 deaths - it was 55 last Saturday.
1079 cases - it was 1129 last Saturday.
At a 6.8% positivity rate
There were problems in South Wales with testing so yesterdays numbers were low. Thought that when I saw the Swansea data I posted here last night.
Even so the Weekly Pop for Wales has fallen again to 261 - from 271 yesterday. Been falling steadily from 500 a couple of weeks ago so Wales is very clearly getting control now
27 deaths - it was 55 last Saturday.
1079 cases - it was 1129 last Saturday.
At a 6.8% positivity rate
There were problems in South Wales with testing so yesterdays numbers were low. Thought that when I saw the Swansea data I posted here last night.
Even so the Weekly Pop for Wales has fallen again to 261 - from 271 yesterday. Been falling steadily from 500 a couple of weeks ago so Wales is very clearly getting control now
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Whilst no doubt they have done things well over there it’s the population density which is a big issue for us coupled with the mistakes we’ve made with the tiers and letting people move between them.
Healdplace
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Wales Vaccination Update:
Yesterday
First doses - 28, 230 - Total 240, 547
Second doses - 54 - Total 469.
Wales getting through more each day happily,
Yesterday
First doses - 28, 230 - Total 240, 547
Second doses - 54 - Total 469.
Wales getting through more each day happily,
squirtyflower
Well-Known Member
No they’re not open as normal, but they are open to vulnerable children and those from key workers.
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