Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Healdplace said:
Wales data update:

59 Deaths - was 46 last week

705 cases - was 1153 last week

5.8% positivity - was 8.8% last week.

Weekly Pop Score 190 - down from 204 yesterday - was 281 last week.

Deaths still too high but that is unfortunately the last thing that will change.

Everything else looking very positive.
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What's your best guess for the numbers to fall significantly?
 
BlueAnorak said:
As the EU can't do anything that Germany doesn't agree to, then what the fuck is the EU's problem with Astrazeneca?
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Oh I know the UK will vaccinate those at risk dare more quickly than the EU.
Healdplace said:
It is obviously a risk assessment argument and the two countries have reached different conclusions. But it undermines confidence in AZ as a product and doing this hardly helps persuade the company to be helpful to the EU. Why should it go all out to assist a place that is in effect telling the world their vaccine is not safe enough to use it on the 90% of the population who most need it? Not without more tests presumably.

It is a very odd move by Germany who could have just delayed the decision until the dispute was resolved. Not in effect make the party you are disputing with about as disinclined as the could be to cooperate.
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Not at all odd. They need a scapegoat for the EU's disastrous vaccine policy.
They also claim there isn't enough data to approve the vaccine for over 65s
Healdplace said:
Ayrshire I agree that this seriously needs urgent action now as I suspect plenty of people who have had the AZ over 65 (which will be millions in the UK already) are going to demand the 'safe' one - which cannot happen as we have limited stocks.

God help us if someone who had the AZ vaccine dies of Covid as some lawyer will be on it like a hawk suing for millions anyone from AZ to Boris.

This could impact badly on the UK vaccination programme.
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Which of course is the whole purpose due to the EU squabbling with Astrazenica.
Emergency use is emergency use.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Very quick comment on the German over 65s story.

1. Not a surprise, and same approach taken by FDA in the US (actually FDA more stringent still and haven't approved in younger people either yet).

2. Problem is NOT that efficacy shown to be low but that insufficient older people in the dataset to show either way. Additional trial is being run to address the data gap.

3. Not a concern scientifically: the UK justification was
(i) Good efficacy shown in other age groups
(ii) Excellent immune response measured in older people, equivalent to that in younger, and as good (actually better IIRC) than Pfizer. Efficacy comes from immune response.

MHRA and several other authorities worldwide believe this shows sufficient benefit/ risk to approve. EMA/FDA require formal efficacy data.

Regulatory agencies taking different views on this sort of issue is not unusual.

Main issue is communication for people elsewhere taking the jab, not the decision itself.

My parents are due for vaccination today, based on all of this I'm delighted whichever they get.
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A lot of this chatter comes from the large clinical trials that took place in Brazil etc. What's maybe been missed is the initial trials before that which considered the safety profile and antibody response (but not efficacy).

These trials showed the AZ vaccine had a good safety profile and generated a very similar immune response throughout all age groups (the older age groups were actually larger than the others). In the following trials if you didn't test efficacy in a group then you could at risk in effect transpose the results you do have into a kind of assumed efficacy and that is the basis of the MHRA approval.

In the absence of data it's wrong to say efficacy is worse but it is perhaps right to say that efficacy is still unproven but only because it isn't written on a piece of paper. The UK approach is based upon risk and whilst there is no safety profile risk they've still essentially trusted the science. I wouldn't even regard it as a gamble but unfortunately what's happening is a result of a limitation of the wider trials rather than any detrimental outcome.

In my experience Germans value things like process very highly compared to things like outcomes. The Americans are also very tetchy about anything foreign where certainly things like process then become far more important. This is almost just politics at play really but I wouldn't be worried at all about any of the vaccines, there is nothing there to suggest we need to worry.
 
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BlueAnorak said:
...

Not at all odd. They need a scapegoat for the EU's disastrous vaccine policy.
They also claim there isn't enough data to approve the vaccine for over 65s
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There isn’t. We know this. The US and South Korea have said the same. The data on the over 65’s simply isn’t there.

It doesn’t mean the vaccine won‘t work, but the data is the data and it is AZ’s duty to run a trial that produces that data.
 
Ive just had the Oxford vaccine and my other half got the fizer, it was at the Rugby ground with hundreds of other people, lots of nurses doing the injections which don’t hurt.

The queue was huge right round the ground, but it’s moving real quick. It didn’t take long and last of all the doctor was on hand just in case. Fantastic
 
Kirkstall Blue said:
Ive just had the Oxford vaccine and my other half got the fizer, it was at the Rugby ground with hundreds of other people, lots of nurses doing the injections which don’t hurt.

The queue was huge right round the ground, but it’s moving real quick. It didn’t take long and last of all the doctor was on hand just in case. Fantastic
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Big hats off to all the staff including the volunteers, some of them working in the drive throughs doing an 8 hour shift in dark, cold, rainy conditions.
 
Kirkstall Blue said:
Ive just had the Oxford vaccine and my other half got the fizer, it was at the Rugby ground with hundreds of other people, lots of nurses doing the injections which don’t hurt.

The queue was huge right round the ground, but it’s moving real quick. It didn’t take long and last of all the doctor was on hand just in case. Fantastic
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Great. I read reports this morning that they are starting on > 65 now.

ITV
 
Northern Ireland data:

13 deaths - it was 21 last week

592 cases - it was 732 last week

Positivity 19.8% - it was 24.7% last week (This is not as high as it seems as they record differently there - indeed anything under 20% is low by NI standards)

Care home outbreaks 126 - was 134 last week

7 day rolling cases 4066 - was 4246 yesterday and 5563 last week

Patients 768 - down 7 in day - was 806 last week

Ventilated 57 - up 1 in day - was 58 last week.
 
Eds said:
'We have virtually completed' the vaccination of care homes' she says (but cannot resist adding England are well behind!).

What a complete cock she is. There are about 1500 care homes in Scotland, there are over 2,000 in the North West alone. I will take a bet that proportionately we have vaccinated far more people in care homes in England than in Scotland.
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More people obviously but as a percentage a lot less (under 70% last I heard).

Though GM has done them all according to Andy Burnham and as a reward had one third of the vaccine supply taken away from the region as a reward for being ahead of other regions.
 
Murph said:
There's a fascinating article in the BMJ titled, "how the Oxford-Astrazeneca Covid-19 vaccine was made"

Unfortunately I can't link using this browser, perhaps someone would be kind enough to do it, if it hasn't already been shared.

It really is a good read.
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www.bmj.com

How the Oxford-AstraZeneca covid-19 vaccine was made

Andrew Pollard has been leading the Oxford vaccine clinical trials in the UK, Brazil, and South Africa. He tells Elisabeth Mahase how the Oxford vaccine came to be, how dosing was worked out, and whether it will stand up to the new variants Andrew Pollard was in a French taxi when he realised...
www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
 
Marvin said:
Great. I read reports this morning that they are starting on > 65 now.

ITV
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That is Northern Ireland. They will be getting vaccine taken away too as they are doing too well.

England are not expecting to get to the 65 - 70 age range until mid February (I am in there so will let you know when I get my call). But they are discussing only doing down to 70 then changing the priority list and advance teachers and shop workers ahead of under 70s to get schools back in early March. Though under 70s will be done too - just at reduced numbers and more slowly.

Though it seems some even in their 50s have had it out of the blue from posts in here. Without any reason other than - I assume - luck as there were extra supplies or some people failed to show for the booked test each day and they will not waste any so they may rightly contact those who can get there fast to fill those gaps each day.
 
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Healdplace said:
Ayrshire I agree that this seriously needs urgent action now as I suspect plenty of people who have had the AZ over 65 (which will be millions in the UK already) are going to demand the 'safe' one - which cannot happen as we have limited stocks.

God help us if someone who had the AZ vaccine dies of Covid as some lawyer will be on it like a hawk suing for millions anyone from AZ to Boris.

This could impact badly on the UK vaccination programme.
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AZ won’t be sued.
They have got immunity from prosecution.
 
The nurses were withdrawn from all the doctors practice around our area, they are working inside warm and four hour stint. It really was a smooth operation with plenty of grateful patients.

After the horrendous year we’ve had it is amazing how smooth the role out was this morning, she told me they’re doing it for the next seven days I’m so happy at having the vaccine.

The nurse told me she vaccinated 400 that morning and there were about 10 tables with a nurse and assistant each multiply that over the next 7 days I’m extremely optimistic for us all
 
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Saddleworth2 said:
It isn't a competition. Unless we seal our borders, we need everyone to be vaccinated. The UK procurement of vaccine has been very good. Lets hope the rollout continues to go well and other countries have similar success.
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I read there's a call for wealthy countries to donate a certain % of vaccines to Covax who in turn will arrange distribution of these to vulnerable people globally. I'm not naive enough to think there's unlimited supply and wealthy conluntries will be all over it, but it's the right ideas behind it.

We need production, supply and distribution ramped up worldwide.
 
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